Report on expert group meeting on macroeconomic modelling in the Caribbean: new challenges and new directions

The purpose of the expert group meeting was to bring together modelling practitioners to share experiences and to reflect on how to overcome new and old challenges to model building in the Caribbean. As part of the rationale for such a meeting, it was argued that since a major objective of policymaking in the Caribbean was to create the conditions for growth with equity while reducing vulnerability to economic and environmental shocks, model builders must develop strategies to properly address those questions in a unified way. It was further suggested that those goals, though straightforward, required a concentrated technical effort to clarify and update understanding of the workings of Caribbean economies. The emphasis on addressing issues of growth, equity and vulnerability was urgent because Caribbean economies were at a crossroads, with major challenges to the foundations and premises on which the economies had been built.

Report on expert group workshop on macroeconomic modelling in the Caribbean: new challenges and new directions.

The purpose of the expert group meeting was to bring together modelling practitioners to share experiences and to reflect on how to overcome new and old challenges to model building in the Caribbean. As part of the rationale for such a meeting, it was argued that since a major objective of policymaking in the Caribbean was to create the conditions for growth with equity while reducing vulnerability to economic and environmental shocks, model builders must develop strategies to properly address those questions in a unified way. It was further suggested that those goals, though straightforward, required a concentrated technical effort to clarify and update understanding of the workings of Caribbean economies. The emphasis on addressing issues of growth, equity and vulnerability was urgent because Caribbean economies were at a crossroads, with major challenges to the foundations and premises on which the economies had been built.

Macroeconomic trade-offs and external vulnerabilities of human development in Nicaragua

Nicaragua is making progress towards the Millennium Development Goals, but is set to miss a number of targets in 2015. This paper’s general equilibrium analysis shows that it is unfeasible for the government to step up spending in order to meet these targets by the 2015 deadline. Any boost to public spending and financing would have to be front-loaded, which would entail pernicious macroeconomic trade-offs. A more realistic scenario would be to postpone meeting the goals until 2020. In that case, the allocation of public spending would spur economic growth without causing macroeconomic hardships, although the country would nevertheless remain highly vulnerable to external shocks.