The use of key indicators to assess Latin America’s long-term economic performance

Through the astute analysis of official statistics, we can gather a more complete picture of the economic performance of a given country, and understand more fully what have been its drivers, leading to a more effective use of national resources and a more efficient design of policy options. However, the myriad of information and numerical data across the system of macroeconomic statistics can be challenging to interpret in a straightforward manner. In order to synthetically assess economic performance across countries in Latin America we propose the use of a composite indicator, which builds upon the methodology of Khramov and Lee (2013) and incorporates key indicators from each of the pillars of macroeconomic statistics: the System of National Accounts, the Balance of Payments Statistics, Monetary and Financial Statistics and Public Finance Statistics. Through a composite examination of key statistical indicators in each country across their long-term trends, we can more fully understand the underlying macroeconomic dynamics.

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 1998

Includes bibliography.

Economic Performance and Policies in the Caribbean

This edition puts focus on recent economic performance and policies in the Caribbean, acknowledging that ongoing challenges notwithstanding, macroeconomic indicators across the subregion are improving. Four articles will address respectively the prospects for growth, the fiscal situation, the performance of balance of payments and monetary policy and their impact.

The tourism sector and the global economic crisis: development implicatins for the Caribbean

Over the past two years the global economy has experienced substantial economic turmoil, resulting in severe economic contraction. While there has been a recent return to growth, this situation has impacted all economic sectors worldwide. In the highly tourism-dependent region of the Caribbean, the impact of the global economic crisis has been most notable on the tourism sector, which, from the early 1990s, became the key driver of economic growth for the region. The eventual emergence of this sector reflects an economic development history which was previously underpinned by the export of agricultural commodities, and subsequently by the adoption of the import substitution industrialization model as promulgated by Arthur Lewis. This was further stimulated by spectacular economic contraction in Caribbean economies during the 1980s as a result of changes in the global terms of trade for commodities, generally low levels of competitiveness for manufactured goods, as well as weak institutional and governance frameworks. Ultimately, many economies began to reflect fiscal and balance of payments constraints. By the end of the 1990s, too, evidence of declining competitiveness even in the tourism sector began to become apparent particularly when evaluated under the framework of the Butler Tourism Area Life- Cycle (TALC) model. The recent economic crisis, therefore, provides an opportunity to reflect on the overall approach to economic development in the Caribbean, and to assess the implications of the region’s response to the crisis. This analysis makes the case for the future development of the sector to be based on two broad strategies. The first is to deepen the integration of the tourism sector into the broader economy through the diversification of the regional tourism product, as well as the enhancement of linkages with other sectors, while the second is to expand the tourism sector into a total service economy through the introduction of new services. Considering linkages, the development of clusters and value chains to support the tourism sector is identified with respect to agriculture and food, handicraft, and furnishings. Among the new services identified are education, wellness, yachting and boating, financial services, and information and communications technologies (ICT). This overall strategy is deemed to be better suited to the macroeconomic realities of the Caribbean, where high labour costs and other structural rigidities require a high-valued specialty tourism product in order to sustain the sector’s global competitiveness.

Public debt sustainability in the Caribbean

This paper analyses public debt in the most indebted Caribbean countries – i.e. Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Jamaica, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, and St. Kitts and Nevis – from the standpoint of its sustainability. A level of debt is deemed to be sustainable when the debt-to-GDP ratio remains constant or declines. The concept of sustainability is closely linked to that of solvency. A government is solvent if the net present value of its future primary balances (i.e. that excludes interest payments) is equal to or greater than the present value of public debt stock. It can be demonstrated that if the debt-to-GDP ratio is not on an explosive path, that it either stable or decreasing, the solvency condition holds. It is worth noting that the concept of fiscal sustainability addressed in this paper differs from that of optimality of public debt. The analysis that follows is intended to determine whether the service of the current debt levels is consistent with the fiscal stance. Therefore, it does not set out to identify the target debt level based on any optimality criteria. The next section presents the main features of different theoretical approaches to analyse public debt sustainability.1 Section II discusses the situation of public debt in the Caribbean countries showing different indicators; Section III analyses debt sustainability in countries with access to market financing; Section IV does the same in Guyana – a country dependent on concessional financing and, as such, included in the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative – and the countries of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). Sections V and VI go beyond debt levels as determinants of fiscal sustainability, highlighting the importance of the currency composition of debt and the variability of fiscal revenue. The last section concludes.

Centroamérica y República Dominicana: Evolución económica en 2015 y perspectivas para 2016. Estudio Económico

En el presente documento se analiza la evolución de las economías de Centroamérica (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua y Panamá) y la República Dominicana (CARD) en 2015, con base en cifras oficiales al cierre del año, y ofrece un análisis de los primeros meses de 2016 y perspectivas para el resto del año. Es un estudio de coyuntura, con información disponible al 30 de junio de 2016. En el documento se ofrece una actualización de la versión publicada en febrero de 2016.