Enterprise creation and economic recovery: the case of Rio Grande do Sul

Includes bibliography

Structural change and productivity growth 20 years later: old problems, new opportunities. Summary

Includes bibliography

Global economic developments, 1999

Includes bibliography

ECLAC Notes Nº 5

Ups and downs of the Brazilian economy Surprises in structural reform index Opinion: Does foreign direct investment contribute to economic growth? Highlights: The debate over Chile's Water Code Indicators Community management improves rural education Recent titles Calendar

Big data and open data as sustainability tools: A working paper prepared by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

The two main forces affecting economic development are the ongoing technological revolution and the challenge of sustainability. Technological change is altering patterns of production, consumption and behaviour in societies; at the same time, it is becoming increasingly difficult to ensure the sustainability of these new patterns because of the constraints resulting from the negative externalities generated by economic growth and, in many cases, by technical progress itself. Reorienting innovation towards reducing or, if possible, reversing the effects of these externalities could create the conditions for synergies between the two processes. Views on the subject vary widely: while some maintain that these synergies can easily be created if growth follows an environmentally friendly model, summarized in the concept of green growth, others argue that production and consumption patterns are changing too slowly and that any technological fix will come too late. These considerations apply to hard technologies, essentially those used in production. The present document explores the opportunities being opened up by new ones, basically information and communication technologies, in terms of increasing the effectiveness (outcomes) and efficiency (relative costs) of soft technologies that can improve the way environmental issues are handled in business management and in public policy formulation and implementation.

Structural change and growth in Central America and the Dominican Republic: an overview of two decades, 1990-2011

This book explores the changes that have occurred as regards the production structure, trade and society in Central America and the Dominican Republic, and how these have influenced the countries’ growth trajectories. One of the conclusions it reaches is that the subregion overall has enjoyed faster economic growth than the rest of Latin America over the two decades examined, which has helped to raise people’s incomes and living standards. Yet this progress falls far short of what is needed, given the high levels of poverty and indigence and the glaring inequalities suffered by much of the population in Central America and the Dominican Republic. If the subregion is to attain higher levels of development with equality, one of the challenges it must tackle urgently is to adopt a strategy for changing its production structures and forging ahead with subregional integration, in order to correct productivity lags and income gaps. Another piece of unfinished business is to broaden the scope of action of fiscal and monetary policy, with a view to raising public investment, deploying countercyclical policies and developing greater resilience to external shocks.

Economic and Social Panorama of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States 2014

This issue of the Economic and Social Panorama of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States is a contribution by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) to the third Summit of Heads of State and Government of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), to be held in San José in January 2015. This document is based on excerpts from some of the annual flagships published by the Commission in 2014: Statistical Yearbook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2013 (LC/G.2582-P); Demographic Observatory 2013 (LC/G.2615-P); Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2014 (LC/G.2619-P); Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2014 (LC/G.2632-P); Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean 2013 (LC/G.2615-P); Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2014 (LG/G.2625-P) “Social Panorama Social of Latin America 2014. Briefing Paper”; as well as the Gender Equality Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean. Annual Report 2013-2014 (LC/G.2626).

CEPAL Review no. 113

Development then and now: Idea and utopia / Rolando Cordera Campos .-- Latin America’s competitive position in knowledge-intensive services trade / Andrés López, Andrés Niembro and Daniela Ramos .-- Wage share and economic growth in Latin America, 1950-2011 / Germán Alarco Tosoni .-- Patterns of technical progress in the Brazilian economy, 1952-2008 / Adalmir Marquetti and Melody de Campos Soares Porsse .-- Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys / Pilar Poncela, Víctor M. Guerrero, Alejandro Islas, Julio Rodríguez and Rocío Sánchez-Mangas .-- Expectations and industrial output in Uruguay: Sectoral interdependence and common trends / Bibiana Lanzilotta .-- Argentina: Impacts of the child allowance programme on the labour-market behaviour of adults / Roxana Maurizio and Gustavo Vázquez .-- Occupational mobility and income differentials: The experience of Brazil between 2002 and 2010 / Sandro Eduardo Monsueto, Julimar da Silva Bichara and André Moreira Cunha .-- What does the National High School Exam (enem) tell Brazilian society? / Rodrigo Travitzki, Jorge Calero and Carlota Boto .-- Brazil’s Northeast Financing Constitutional Fund: Differentiated effects on municipal economic growth / Fabrício Carneiro Linhares, Ricardo Brito Soares, Marcos Falcão Gonçalves and Luiz Fernando Gonçalves Viana.

Some Recent Features of Brazil-China Economic Relations

This paper shows that the Brazilian economic relations with China are intensifying at an unprecedented pace. This obviously brings about new challenges and opportunities. It is also shown that relations with specific provinces in China vary significantly, as illustrated by the available indicators for Shanghai, in comparison to other provinces. And last but not least, the paper has shown the rich recent experience of one Brazilian company that has benefited from the sharp increase of Chinese demand for raw material. This is a typical case of a new scenario for Brazilian firms, one where the firm has to learn how to flex its muscles as one of the major players in the international market, and in particular to learn in its dealing with its main client. The relationship between one of the major suppliers and the most active demander is of particular interest in itself.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Energy and Health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago

This report analyses the agriculture, energy, and health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Trinidad and Tobago. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on root crops, green vegetables and fisheries. For these sectors combined, the cumulative loss under the A2 scenario is calculated as approximately B$2.24 and approximately B$1.72 under the B2 scenario by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Given the potential for significant damage to the agriculture sector a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 10 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. All of the adaptation strategies showed positive benefits. The analysis indicate that the options with the highest net benefits are: (1) Building on-farm water storage, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Using drip irrigation. Other attractive options include water harvesting. The policy decisions by governments should include these assessments, the omitted intangible benefits, as well as the provision of other social goals such as employment. The analysis of the energy sector has shown that the economic impact of climate change during 2011-2050 is similar under the A2 (US$142.88 million) and B2 (US$134.83 million) scenarios with A2 scenario having a slightly higher cost (0.737% of 2009 GDP) than the B2 scenario (0.695% of 2009 GDP) for the period. On the supply side, analyses indicate that Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector will be susceptible to the climate change policies of major energy-importing countries (the United States of America and China), and especially to their renewable energy strategies. Implementation of foreign oil substitution policy by the United States of America will result in a decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export (equivalent to 2.2% reduction in 2009 GDP) unless an alternative market is secured for the lost United States of America market. China, with its rapid economic growth and the highest population in the world, offers a potential replacement market for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG export. In this context the A2 scenario will offer the best option for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. The cost-benefit analysis undertaken on selected adaptation strategies reveal that the benefit-cost ratio of replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters is the most cost-effective. It was also found that the introduction of Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) and Variable Refrigerant Volume (VRV) air conditioners surpasses the projected cost of increased electricity consumption due to climate change, and provides an economic rationale for the adoption of these adaptation options even in a situation of increased electricity consumption occasioned by climate change. Finally, the conversion of motor fleets to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a cost-effective adaptation option for the transport sector, although it has a high initial cost of implementation and the highest per capita among the four adaptation options evaluated. To investigate the effect of climate change on the health sector dengue fever, leptospirosis, food borne illnesses, and gastroenteritis were examined. The total number of new dengue cases for the period 2008 to 2050 was 204,786 for BAU, 153,725 for A2 and 131,890 for the B2 scenario. With regard to the results for leptospirosis, A2 and B2 seem to be following a similar path with total number of new cases in the A2 scenario being 9,727 and 9,218 cases under the B2 scenario. Although incidence levels in the BAU scenario coincided with those of A2 and B2 prior to 2020, they are somewhat lower post 2020. A similar picture emerges for the scenarios as they relate to food-borne illnesses and to gastroenteritis. Specifically for food-borne illnesses, the BAU scenario recorded 27,537 cases, the A2 recorded 28,568 cases and the B2 recorded 28,679 cases. The focus on the selected sources of morbidity in the health sector has highlighted the fact that the vulnerability of the country’s health sector to climate change does not depend solely on exogenously derived impacts, but also on the behaviour and practices among the population. It is clear that the vulnerability which became evident in the analysis of the impacts on dengue fever, leptospirosis and food-borne illnesses is not restricted solely to climate or other external factors. The most important adaptation strategy being recommended targets lifestyle, behaviour and attitude changes. The population needs to be encouraged to alter their behaviours and practices so as to minimise their exposure to harmful outcomes as it relates to the incidence of these diseases.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Energy Sector in Trinidad and Tobago

The energy sector is a dominant one in Trinidad and Tobago and it plays an important role in the twin-island republic‟s economy. In 2008, the share of the energy sector in gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to approximately 48% while contributing 57% to total Government revenue. In that same year, the sector‟s share of merchandise exports was 88%, made up mainly of refined oil products including petroleum, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, 2009). Trinidad and Tobago is the main exporter of oil in the Caribbean region and the main producer of liquefied natural gas in Latin America and the Caribbean. The role of the country‟s energy sector is, therefore, not limited to serving as the engine of growth for the national economy but also includes providing energy security for the small island developing States of the Caribbean. However, with its hydrocarbon-based economy, Trinidad and Tobago is ranked seventh in the world in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita, producing an estimated 40 million tonnes of CO2 annually. Almost 90% of these CO2 emissions are attributed directly to the energy sector through petrochemical production (56%), power generation (30%) and flaring (3%). Trinidad and Tobago is a ratified signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. Although, as a non-Annex 1 country, Trinidad and Tobago is not required to cut its greenhouse gas emissions under the Protocol, it is currently finalizing a climate change policy document as well as a national energy policy with specific strategies to address climate change. The present study complements the climate change policy document by providing an economic analysis of the impact that climate change could have on the energy sector in Trinidad and Tobago under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change alternative climate scenarios (A2 and B2) as compared to a baseline situation of no climate change. Results of analyses indicate that, in the short-run, climate change, represented by change in temperature, is not a significant determinant of domestic consumption of energy, electricity in particular, in Trinidad and Tobago. With energy prices subsidized domestically and fixed for years at a time, energy price does not play a role in determining electricity demand. Economic growth, as indicated by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is the single major determinant of electricity consumption in the short-run. In the long-run, temperature, GDP, and patterns of electricity use, jointly determine electricity consumption. Variations in average annual temperature due to climate change for the A2 scenario are expected to lead to an increase in electricity consumption per capita, equivalent to an annual increase of 1.07% over the 2011 baseline value of electricity consumption per capita. Under the B2 scenario, the average annual increase in electricity consumption per capita over the 2011 baseline value is expected to be 1.01%. The estimated economic impact of climate change on electricity consumption for the period 2011-2050 is valued at US$ 142.88 million under the A2 scenario and US$ 134.83million under the B2 scenario. These economic impact estimates are equivalent to a loss of 0.737% of 2009 GDP under the A2 climate scenario and a loss of 0.695% of 2009 GDP under the B2 scenario. On the energy supply side, sea level rise and storm surges present significant risks to oil installations and infrastructure at the Petroleum Company of Trinidad and Tobago (PETROTRIN) Pointe-a-Pierre facilities (Singh and El Fouladi, 2006). However, data limitations do not permit the conduct of an economic analysis of the impact of projected sea level rise on oil and gas production.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Jamaica

Climate change is a continuous process that began centuries ago. Today the pace of change has increased with greater rapidity because of global warming induced by anthropogenically generated greenhouse gases (GHG). Failure to effectively deal with the adverse outcomes can easily disrupt plans for sustainable economic development. Because of the failure of export agriculture over the last several decades, to provide the economic stimuli needed to promote economic growth and development, Jamaica, like many other island states in the Caribbean subregion, has come to rely on tourism as an instrument of transformation of the macro-economy. It is believed this shift in economic imperative would eventually provide the economic impetus needed to generate much needed growth and development. This assessment has shown that tourism is not only a leading earner of foreign exchange in Jamaica and a major creator of both direct and indirect jobs but, also, one of the principal contributors to the country‟s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The rapid expansion of the industry which occurred over the last several decades coupled with disregard for sound environmental practices has led to the destruction of coral reefs and the silting of wetlands. Because most of the industry is located along the coastal region it is extremely vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Failure to address the predictable environmental challenges of climate change, with some degree of immediacy, will not only undermine, but quickly and seriously impair the capacity of industry to stimulate and contribute to the process of economic development. To this end, it important that further development of industry be characterised by sound economic and social planning and proper environmental practices.

The tourism sector and the global economic crisis: development implicatins for the Caribbean

Over the past two years the global economy has experienced substantial economic turmoil, resulting in severe economic contraction. While there has been a recent return to growth, this situation has impacted all economic sectors worldwide. In the highly tourism-dependent region of the Caribbean, the impact of the global economic crisis has been most notable on the tourism sector, which, from the early 1990s, became the key driver of economic growth for the region. The eventual emergence of this sector reflects an economic development history which was previously underpinned by the export of agricultural commodities, and subsequently by the adoption of the import substitution industrialization model as promulgated by Arthur Lewis. This was further stimulated by spectacular economic contraction in Caribbean economies during the 1980s as a result of changes in the global terms of trade for commodities, generally low levels of competitiveness for manufactured goods, as well as weak institutional and governance frameworks. Ultimately, many economies began to reflect fiscal and balance of payments constraints. By the end of the 1990s, too, evidence of declining competitiveness even in the tourism sector began to become apparent particularly when evaluated under the framework of the Butler Tourism Area Life- Cycle (TALC) model. The recent economic crisis, therefore, provides an opportunity to reflect on the overall approach to economic development in the Caribbean, and to assess the implications of the region’s response to the crisis. This analysis makes the case for the future development of the sector to be based on two broad strategies. The first is to deepen the integration of the tourism sector into the broader economy through the diversification of the regional tourism product, as well as the enhancement of linkages with other sectors, while the second is to expand the tourism sector into a total service economy through the introduction of new services. Considering linkages, the development of clusters and value chains to support the tourism sector is identified with respect to agriculture and food, handicraft, and furnishings. Among the new services identified are education, wellness, yachting and boating, financial services, and information and communications technologies (ICT). This overall strategy is deemed to be better suited to the macroeconomic realities of the Caribbean, where high labour costs and other structural rigidities require a high-valued specialty tourism product in order to sustain the sector’s global competitiveness.

Economic survey of the Caribbean 2008-2009

This survey provides an overview of the economic performance of countries of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) for the year 2008 and their outlook for 2009. The report comprises three chapters. The first provides a regional comparative analysis of the main macroeconomic variables, namely GDP growth, inflation, fiscal and external accounts, as well as fiscal, monetary and other policies, particularly those specifically devised to cope with the ongoing global economic crisis. The second chapter deals with two topics relevant for economic development in the region: economic growth and small and medium enterprises development from an analytical and empirical perspective. The last chapter presents country briefs of the seven most developed countries (MDCs) in the Caribbean – Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago – together with a subregional assessment of the eight member countries of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU).

Stylized features of the investment-growth connection in Latin America, 1980-2012

Estimates of investment and its components in Latin America over the past 30 years are used to review stylized facts relating to investment and explore factors that explain its connection with economic growth. In particular, the low level of investment, the reduction in public spending in the 1980s and its partial recovery along with private investment between 2003 and 2010 are explored. It is found that the increase in national income —on the back of rising terms of trade— made it possible to increase national saving and its contribution to financing investment between 2004 and 2008. The analysis of causality between the investment ratio and growth in gross domestic product (gdp) suggest that —for a considerable number of Latin American countries— changes in the growth rate have preceded changes in the investment ration in the period under study.