Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2015. The regional trade crisis: assessment and outlook.

With external conditions sluggish and highly uncertain as the global economy still struggles to shake off the effects of the economic crisis of 2008-2009, the Latin American and Caribbean region is not isolated from these effects and is projected to record a small drop in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, followed by a weak recovery in 2016. Against this backdrop, 2015 will be the third consecutive year of increasing declines in regional export values; a state of affairs not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. This poor performance reflects the end of the commodity price boom, the slowdown of the Chinese economy, the weak recovery of the eurozone and the lacklustre economic activity in the region, particularly in South America.

The Caribbean and the post-2015 development agenda

This paper will contend that the post-2015 development agenda presents a major opportunity for Caribbean countries to reverse decades of lagging economic performance and make the transition to balanced, holistic, and people-centred growth and development. The MDGs, while valuable in promoting gains in poverty reduction, health, education, nutrition, and maternal well-being were not tailored to the growth and development needs of the region. This can now be changed by a post-2015 development agenda which goes beyond improving the welfare of citizens by meeting basic needs and enhancing access to primary services. The necessary scaling-up of the MDG framework will require that the sustainable development goals, which will anchor the post- 2015 development agenda, are capable of promoting structural change, competitiveness and output gains while advancing social development and meeting environmental concerns. They must also address the unfinished business of the millennium development goals, primarily in the area of human development.

The People’s Republic of China and Latin America: the impact of Chinese economic growth on Latin American exports

The role of the People’s Republic of China in the world economy has grown substantially in recent decades, turning it into a strategic foreign trading partner for much of Latin America. Bilateral trade between the region and China totalled US$ 120 billion in 2009. This study analyses the income elasticity of the region’s exports to the country. The findings show that, assuming real gross domestic product (gdp) growth in China of about 7% a year, the value of Latin American exports to China (at 2005 prices) can be expected to increase by an average of about 10% a year between 2014 and 2019. In a more conservative scenario of 4.5% average annual growth in the Chinese economy over the period, exports would rise by about 7% a year.