The development of services in the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

The maritime cycle and the post-crisis ups and downs

This edition of the FAL Bulletin analyses the maritime cycle and its impact on the overall business cycle. In particular, it considers the financial and economic crisis which shook the world from 2008 onwards, affecting both world trade and levels of economic activity, with serious consequences for maritime transport.

Competitiveness and efficiency in land transport

One of the consequences of the opening of the worlds economies - an integral part of globalization - is increased focus on the efficiency and costs of transport services (on which competitiveness is largely dependent). Countries with inefficient and costly transport services lose out, in terms of economic activity and income, to those with more appropriate transport services. The issue is particularly important in Latin America, where exports mainly consist of bulk consignments of products with comparatively low value/quantity ratios and transport costs are a major determining factor of c.i.f. prices.The determination of competitiveness indices in the long term, however, also needs to include the costs of pollution, congestion and accidents, in addition to the transport costs usually considered as part of the price of freight. Competitiveness, efficiency and the global costs of transport were the main subjects of an international seminar organized in conjunction with the Chilean Institute of Engineers and held on 9 and 10 September 2004 at the Headquarters of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Crisis in the labour markets and countercyclical responses

As predicted in the first bulletin, produced jointly by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Labour Organization (ILO), the impact of the economic crisis continued to be felt in Latin America and the Caribbean during the second quarter of 2009. Regional exports of goods and services contracted in response to sluggish demand on international markets, while remittances and foreign direct investment flows continued to fall, credit lost its buoyancy and the total wage bill diminished, owing mainly to job losses. As a result, the growth forecasts of many countries had to be adjusted downwards. Since the end of 2008, the countries of the region had started to implement countercyclical policies —albeit with significant differences— in an effort to use public spending to counter flagging investment and consumer-spending levels and boost aggregate demand. In this second bulletin, ECLAC and ILO show how the impact of the crisis has deepened in labour markets in the region in the first half of the year and examine existing options and the outcome of public-infrastructure and emergency employment programmes designed to mitigate the impact of the crisis on the labour market. The unemployment rate has risen in practically all countries compared with the previous year and this situation worsened further in the second quarter, when urban unemployment exceeded the rate of the corresponding period in 2008 by 1 percentage point (to stand at 8.5%, up from 7.5%), while in the first quarter, the variation was 0.6 of a percentage point. Labour indicators also point to an increase in informality, a decline in employment with social protection and a decrease in full-time employment. Labour-market trends observed in the first half-year, together with the forecast for a 1.9% decline in regional GDP in 2009, suggest that the average annual rate of urban unemployment in the region will be close to 8.5%. This forecast is slightly less pessimistic than the estimate given in the first bulletin; this is attributable to the fall in the participation rate in the first half-year to levels that are expected to remain low for the rest of the year. Without this reduction in the labour supply, due largely to the “discouragement effect”, the annual average urban unemployment rate would stand at between 8.8% and 8.9%. Thus, the open urban unemployment figure would increase by 2.5 million and if the “discouraged job-seekers” are included, then the number of additional persons not finding a niche in the urban labour market would climb to 3.2 million. In the region, as in the rest of the world, there are signs that the crisis may have reached bottom in the middle of the year. In many countries, production levels have ceased their decline and there are indications of an incipient recovery leading to cautious optimism that there may be a moderate upturn in labour markets in the fourth quarter. The pace of recovery will vary from one country to the next and is expected to be gradual at best. Even with the return to a growth path, there should be no illusion that the labour problems will immediately disappear. First, the recovery in employment is expected to lag behind the upturn in economic activity. Second, since economic growth is likely to remain moderate in the short term and well below the rates recorded between late 2003 and mid-2008, demand for labour and consequently the generation of good-quality jobs will continue to be weak. Thus, countries should not relax their efforts to defend and create decent jobs, but rather should take steps to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of available instruments. In this way, the region will be in a better position not only to confront the challenges of economic recovery, but also to strengthen the foundations for social inclusion and for advancing under more favourable conditions towards fulfilment of the Millennium Development Goals.

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2015. The regional trade crisis: assessment and outlook.

With external conditions sluggish and highly uncertain as the global economy still struggles to shake off the effects of the economic crisis of 2008-2009, the Latin American and Caribbean region is not isolated from these effects and is projected to record a small drop in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, followed by a weak recovery in 2016. Against this backdrop, 2015 will be the third consecutive year of increasing declines in regional export values; a state of affairs not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. This poor performance reflects the end of the commodity price boom, the slowdown of the Chinese economy, the weak recovery of the eurozone and the lacklustre economic activity in the region, particularly in South America.

Towards a demand model for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean: a regional study of passenger ferry services

In this paper, the main factors that influence the demand for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean were studied. While maritime studies in the Caribbean have focused on infrastructural and operational systems for intensifying trade and movement of goods, there is little information on the movement of persons within the region and its potential to encourage further integration and sustainable development. Data to inform studies and policies in this area are particularly difficult to source. For this study, an unbalanced data set for the 2000-2014 period in 15 destinations with a focus on departing ferry passengers was compiled. Further a demand equation for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean using panel data methods was estimated. The results showed that this demand is related to the real fare of the service, international economic activity and the number of passengers arriving in the country by air.

Expert survey on priorities for the information society in the Caribbean

An on-line survey of experts was conducted to solicit their views on policy priorities in the area of information and communication technologies (ICT) in the Caribbean. The experts considered the goal to “promote teacher training in the use of ICTs in the classroom” to be the highest priority, followed by goals to “reduce the cost of broadband services” and “promote the use of ICT in emergency and disaster prevention, preparedness and response.” Goals in the areas of cybercrime, e-commerce, egovernment, universal service funds, consumer protection, and on-line privacy rounded out the top 10. Some of the lowest ranked goals were those related to coordinating the management of infrastructure changes. These included the switchover for digital terrestrial television (DTT) and digital FM radio, cloud computing for government ICT, the introduction of satellite-based internet services, and the installation of content distribution networks (CDNs). Initiatives aimed at using ICT to promote specific industries, or specific means of promoting the digital economy, tended toward the centre of the rankings. Thus, a general pattern emerged which elevated the importance of focusing on how ICT is integrated into the broader society, with economic issues a lower priority, and concerns about coordination on infrastructure issues lower still.

Economic survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 1999-2000: summary

Includes bibliography

Economic survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 1998-1999: summary

Includes bibliography

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2010-2011: Internacional integration and macroeconomic policy challenges amid global economic turmoil

Includes bibliography

Economic policy, institutions and productive development in Latin America

Includes bibliography

The importance of the manufacturing sector for Brazilian economic development

Includes bibliography

Promoting economic links between the integration schemes of Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Global economic developments, 1999

Includes bibliography

A summary of global economic and maritime trade trends in Latin America and the Caribbean since the 2009 crisis

This issue of the FAL bulletin reviews the changing global economic environment for the countries of Latin American and the Caribbean and highlights some recent trends in maritime trade and container port activity in the region.