The global financial crisis: what happened and what’s next

Global economic conditions have been deteriorating sharply since mid- September 2008. Lending has dropped abruptly, credit spreads have widened sharply, stock markets have plunged and economies everywhere are stumbling. Governments around the world have undertaken unprecedented measures, including some coordinated intervention. However, global economic prospects remain troubled, and further policy action is required. In order to better understand the task before policy makers as they chart a new direction, this paper examines how the global economy arrived at its current predicament, looking back at the sequence of events that contributed to create havoc in financial markets, as well as the policy response they produced. In light of these events, we examine the impact on Latin American financial markets in particular. The global nature of the current crisis underscores the need for coordinating the policy response at the global level, as well as advancing towards a new international financial architecture that will make possible a more effective response to the build-up of systemic pressures.

Development of a modelling framework in support of an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change in the Caribbean: the ECLAC – CIAM Model

The Caribbean region remains highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In order to assess the social and economic consequences of climate change for the region, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean( ECLAC) has developed a model for this purpose. The model is referred to as the Climate Impact Assessment Model (ECLAC-CIAM) and is a tool that can simultaneously assess multiple sectoral climate impacts specific to the Caribbean as a whole and for individual countries. To achieve this goal, an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) with a Computable General Equilibrium Core was developed comprising of three modules to be executed sequentially. The first of these modules defines the type and magnitude of economic shocks on the basis of a climate change scenario, the second module is a global Computable General Equilibrium model with a special regional and industrial classification and the third module processes the output of the CGE model to get more disaggregated results. The model has the potential to produce several economic estimates but the current default results include percentage change in real national income for individual Caribbean states which provides a simple measure of welfare impacts. With some modifications, the model can also be used to consider the effects of single sectoral shocks such as (Land, Labour, Capital and Tourism) on the percentage change in real national income. Ultimately, the model is envisioned as an evolving tool for assessing the impact of climate change in the Caribbean and as a guide to policy responses with respect to adaptation strategies.

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

There are significant, fundamental changes taking place in global air and sea surface temperatures and sea levels. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted that many of the warmest years on the instrumental record of global surface temperatures have occurred within the last twelve years, i.e. 1995-2006 (IPCC, 2007). The Caribbean tourism product is particularly vulnerable to climate change. On the demand side, mitigation measures in other countries – for example, measures to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels – could have implications for airfares and cruise prices and, therefore, for the demand for travel, particularly to long-haul destinations such as the Caribbean (Clayton, 2009). On the supply side, sea level rise will cause beaches to disappear and damage coastal resorts. Changes in the frequency and severity of hurricanes are likely to magnify that damage. Other indirect impacts on the tourism product include rising insurance premiums and competition for water resources (Cashman, Cumberbatch, & Moore, 2012). The present report has used information on historic and future Caribbean climate data to calculate that the Caribbean tourism climatic index (TCI) ranges from −20 (impossible) to +100 (ideal). In addition to projections for the Caribbean, the report has produced TCI projections for the New York City area (specifically, Central Park), which have been used as comparators for Caribbean country projections. The conditions in the source market provide a benchmark against which visitors may judge their experience in the tourism destination. The historical and forecasted TCIs for the Caribbean under both the A2 and B2 climate scenarios of the IPCC suggest that climatic conditions in the Caribbean are expected to deteriorate, and are likely to become less conducive to tourism. More specifically, the greatest decline in the TCI is likely to occur during the northern hemisphere summer months from May to September. At the same time, the scenario analysis indicates that home conditions during the traditional tourist season (December – April) are likely to improve, which could make it more attractive for visitors from these markets to consider ‘staycations’ as an alternative to overseas trips.

Global financial rulemaking and small economies

This paper addresses some unintended consequences of global financial regulation and international tax evasion prevention and their impact on small economies. It explores how failure to recognize countries’ differing access to finance and varying costs of funding as well as the high costs of complying with financial regulations may overlook some unintended consequences, especially on smaller island countries Then, it discusses the global financial architecture and governance of standard setting bodies and the actions taken to improve representation and legitimacy and remediate some of the unintended deleterious effects on emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). Improving governance is ever more urgent at a time when financing the post-2015 agenda will require mobilization of both public and private funds at the national, regional and global levels.

Caribbean synthesis review and appraisal report on the implementation of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action

The Caribbean sub-regional synthesis report, covering 12 countries, assesses progress towards the gender equality goals articulated in the 1995 World Conference on Women, which produced the Beijing Platform for Action (BPfA). The process leading to the preparation of the report has involved a series of national, regional and global consultations that will culminate in the Beijing + 20 Review. The process has also led to the formulation of the Caribbean Joint Statement on Gender Equality and the Post-2015, as well as the SIDS Agenda, both of which express Caribbean perspectives and expectations regarding gender equality.

Puerto Rico: Fiscal and economic growth challenges

The objective of this paper is to assess the challenges that Puerto Rico’s economy is currently facing. Puerto Rico’s development experience in the postwar period is briefly discussed in order to understand the nature of the island’s current situation. Puerto Rico’s recent economic performance, credit position, debt situation and fiscal conditions, including its complex capital structure and recently released fiscal and economic growth plan are also analyzed.

The Caribbean and the post-2015 development agenda

This paper will contend that the post-2015 development agenda presents a major opportunity for Caribbean countries to reverse decades of lagging economic performance and make the transition to balanced, holistic, and people-centred growth and development. The MDGs, while valuable in promoting gains in poverty reduction, health, education, nutrition, and maternal well-being were not tailored to the growth and development needs of the region. This can now be changed by a post-2015 development agenda which goes beyond improving the welfare of citizens by meeting basic needs and enhancing access to primary services. The necessary scaling-up of the MDG framework will require that the sustainable development goals, which will anchor the post- 2015 development agenda, are capable of promoting structural change, competitiveness and output gains while advancing social development and meeting environmental concerns. They must also address the unfinished business of the millennium development goals, primarily in the area of human development.

Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action

This study addresses the ageing of the Caribbean population and the situation with respect to the human rights of older persons. It considers the implications for public policy of these ‘twin imperatives for action’. The first chapter describes and explains the changing age structure of the Caribbean population. Important features of the ageing dynamic, such as differential regional and national trends and the growing number of ‘older old’ persons, are also analysed. The study then describes the progress that has been made in advancing and clarifying the human rights of older persons in international law. The core of the study then consists of an assessment of the current situation of older persons in the Caribbean and the extent to which their human rights are realised in practice. The thematic areas of economic security, health, and enabling environments – which roughly correspond to the three priority areas of the Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing – are each addressed in individual chapters. These chapters evaluate national policies and programmes for older persons and make public policy recommendations intended to protect and fulfil the human rights of older persons. The report concludes by summarising the priorities for future action both through the establishment of new international human rights instruments as well as national policies and programmes.

Opportunities and risks associated with the advent of digital currency in the Caribbean

This report examines the usage of digital currency technology in the Caribbean subregion with a view to drawing attention to the opportunities and risks associated with this new phenomenon. It discusses the broader context of an emerging activity at the global level and considers how this technology could address subregional deficiencies in the electronic payment infrastructure. The report also discusses mobile money solutions, and the relationship of that technology to digital currency.

An assessment of big data for official statistics in the Caribbean: Challenges and opportunities

The data revolution for sustainable development has triggered interest in the use of big data for official statistics such that theUnited Nations Economic and Social Council considers it to be almost an obligation for statistical organizations to explore big data. Big data has been promoted as a more timely and cheaper alternative to traditional sources of official data, and one that offers great potential for monitoring the sustainable development goals. However, privacy concerns, technology and capacity remain significant obstacles to the use of big data. This study makes a case for incorporating big data in official statitics in the Caribbean by highlight the opportunities that big data provides for the subregion, while suggesting ways to manage the challenges. It serves as a starting point for further discussions on the many facets of big data and provides an initial platform upon which a Caribbean big data strategy could be built.

Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2015: Balancing economic recovery and high debt in the Caribbean

The survey provides an overview of the economic performance for 2014 of the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago plus the eight member states of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and the outlook for 2015. Data were collected from a review of reports from national governments and through interviews with government officials in each of the countries analyzed.

Dissemination of Caribbean census microdata to researchers: Including an experiment in the anonymization of microdata for Grenada and Trinidad and Tobago

Caribbean census microdata are not easily accessible to researchers. Although there are well-established and commonly used procedures technical, administrative and legal which are used to disseminate anonymized census microdata to researchers, they have not been widely used in the Caribbean. The small size of Caribbean countries makes anonymization relatively more difficult and standard methods are not always directly applicable. This study reviews commonly used methods of disseminating census microdata and considers their applicability to the Caribbean. It demonstrates the application of statistical disclosure control methods using the census datasets of Grenada and Trinidad and Tobago and considers various possible designs of microdata release file in terms of disclosure risk and utility to researchers. It then considers how various forms of microdata dissemination: public use files, licensed use files, remote data access and secure data laboratories could be used to disseminate census microdata. It concludes that there is scope for a substantial expansion of access to Caribbean census microdata and that through collaboration with international organisations and data archives, this can be achieved with relatively little burden on statistical offices.