Economic growth and real volatility: The case of Latin America and the Caribbean

Using a new database of quarterly data for 21 countries of Latin America and the Caribbean for the 1990-2012 period, this document shows that the duration of GDP contractions appears to be a rather robust indicator of real volatility, and is negatively correlated with long run growth in Latin America and the Caribbean during the period. These results are consistent with different theoretical hypotheses in the literature that relate the duration of GDP contractions with economic growth. They also show that the relationship between real volatility and economic growth in the region is robust to the inclusion of external variables that control for external uncertainty and volatility.

Export competitiveness in an oil and gas economy: the case of Trinidad and Tobago, 1985-2010

The oil and gas sector has led the economy of Trinidad and Tobago since the late 1970s and, more pronouncedly, since 2000, accounting for a large share of gdp, total exports and tax revenue. Its prospects in the medium term could be negatively affected, however, if oil and gas extraction expands in other countries, and if the United States attains energy self-sufficiency. This paper offers an analysis of the evolution and competitiveness of its oil and non-oil exports to both the United States and global markets, based on the revealed comparative advantage (rca) index used by eclac. Other foreign trade indicators are also included to determine the structure of the country’s trading relations. The period from 1985 to 2010 is analysed and the results presented are intended to advocate the diversification of Trinidad and Tobago’s exports into more dynamic and diversified markets.