Estimating potential output: a survey of the alternative methods and their application to Brazil

Incluye Bibliografía

Short-term fluctuations in maritime transport

This issue of the FAL bulletin continues the analysis begun in the previous issue (Issue No. 295, number 3/2011) on the impact of the crisis on maritime transport.

An assessment of the dynamics between the permanent and transitory components of Mexico's output and unemployment

Includes bibliography.

Expectations and industrial output in Uruguay: Sectoral interdependence and common trends

This paper examines the interdependence between expectations and growth by analysing Uruguayan manufacturing industry, divided for the purpose into four industry groupings differentiated by trade participation and production specialization. The study shows that there is a long-run relationship between industrialists' expectations and output growth in each grouping. In the most trade-oriented groupings the relationship is one of predetermination, showing how useful expectations are as a guide to sectoral growth. Expectations in the four industrial groupings are shown to follow a common long-run trend, identified with the one guiding the export grouping. Impulse-response simulations derived from a multisectoral vector autoregression (VAR) model confirm the important role of the industries most exposed to international competition in spreading shorter-term shocks.

New maritime transport scenarios. Part II: fluctuations in shipping and new scenarios

This FAL Bulletin details the situation of the shipping industry and forms the second and final part of a larger document that begins with Issue No. 338, which puts the current status of maritime trade in context. Both documents fit into a series of bulletins about ports and maritime trade in the region and are, therefore, closely linked to Issue No. 337, which sets out the need for a new port governance in the region to address the new circumstances that have arisen in the maritime market.

Systemic analysis of the health sector through the input-output matrix, 2000-2005

This article provides a systemic analysis of the health sector in Brazil, based on a study of its productive structure and its interactions with the other sectors of the economy. The article draws on unpublished data on the National Health Accounts provided by the Brazilian Geographical and Statistical Institute (ibge); and it proposes a methodology for harmonizing the System of National Accounts (input-output matrix) with the Health Satellite Accounts for 2000 and 2005. This sheds light on the relations that exist between the health sector and the other sectors the economy, through input-output indicators.