Population projection model for small island countries, an illustration for Aruba 2003-2023

Includes bibliography

Draft operational guide for implementation and follow-up of the Montevideo Consensus on Population and Development: second draft

Introduction .-- I. Background .-- II. Frameworks for implementing the regional agenda on population and development .-- III. Making operational the priority measures of the Montevideo Consensus on Population and Development: A. Full integration of population dynamics into sustainable development with gender equality and respect for human rights. B. Rights, needs, responsibilities and the demands of girls, boys, adolescents and youth. C. Ageing, social protection and socioeconomic challenges. D. Universal access to sexual and reproductive health services. E. Gender equality. F. International migration and protection of the human rights of all migrants. G. Territorial inequality, spatial mobility and vulnerability. H. Indigenous peoples: interculturalism and rights. I. Afro-descendants: rights and combating racial discrimination.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Coastal and Human Settlements and Health Sectors in Guyana

This report analyses the agriculture, coastal and human settlements and health sectors in Guyana to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Guyana. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help bring the Caribbean sub-region closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining national and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050 (agriculture and health sectors) and 2100 (coastal and human settlements sector). An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on three leading sub-sectors namely: sugar-cane, rice-paddy and fisheries. In estimating costs, the sugar sub-sector is projected to experience losses under A2 between US$ 144 million (at 4% discount rate) and US$300 million (1% rate); comparative statistics for rice are US$795 million and US$1577 million, respectively; while for fisheries, the results show that losses range from US$15 million (4% rate) and US$34 million (1% rate). In general, under the B2 scenarios, there are gains for sugar up to 2030 under all three discount rates while for rice the performance is somewhat better with gains realized under all three discount rates up to 2040. For fisheries, gains are forecasted under all three rates up to 2050, following marginal losses to 2020. In terms of the benefit-cost analysis conducted on selected adaptation measures under the A2 scenario, there were net benefits for all three commodities under all three discount rates. For the sugar-cane sub-sector these are: drainage and irrigation upgrade, purchase of new machinery for planting and harvesting, developing and replanting climate tolerant sugar-cane. The rice-paddy sub-sector will benefit from adaptive strategies, which include maintenance of drainage and irrigation systems, research and development, as well as education and training. Adaptation in the fisheries sub-sector must include measures such as, mangrove development and restoration and public education. The analysis of the coastal and human settlements sector has shown that based upon exposed assets and population, SLR can be classified as having the potential to create catastrophic conditions in Guyana. The main contributing factor is the concentration of socioeconomic infrastructure along the coastline in vulnerable areas.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and human settlements, tourism and transport sectors in Barbados

This report analyses the coastal and human settlements, tourism and transport sectors in Barbados to assess the potential economic impact of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Barbados. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050 (tourism and transport sectors) and 2100 (coastal and human settlements sector). An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The analysis has shown that based upon exposed assets and population, SLR can be classified as having the potential to create potential catastrophe in Barbados. The main contributing factor is the concentration of socioeconomic infrastructure along the coastline in vulnerable areas. The A2 and B2 projections have indicated that the number of catastrophes that can be classified as great is likely to be increased for the country. This is based upon the possible effects of the projected unscheduled impacts to the economy both in terms of loss of life and economic infrastructure. These results arise from the A2 and B2 projections, thereby indicating that growth in numbers and losses are largely due to socioeconomic changes over the projection period and hence the need for increased adaptation strategies. A key adaptation measure recommended is for the government of Barbados to begin reducing the infrastructure deficit by continuously investing in protective infrastructure to decrease the country’s vulnerability to changes in the climate. With regard to the tourism sector, it was found that by combining the impacts due to a reduction in tourist arrivals, coral reef loss and SLR, estimated total economic impact of climate change is US $7,648 million (A2 scenario) and US $5,127 million (B2 scenario). An economic analysis of the benefits and costs of several adaptation options was undertaken to determine the cost effectiveness of each one and it was found that four (4) out of nine (9) options had high cost-benefit ratios. It is therefore recommended that the strategies that were most attractive in terms of the cost-benefit ratios be pursued first and these were: (1) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (2) artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) development of national adaptation plans (levee, sea wall and boardwalk); (4) revision of policies related to financing carbon neutral tourism; and (5) increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures. The total cost of climate change on international transportation in Barbados aggregated the impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation, new climate policies and SLR. The impact for air transportation ranges from US$10,727 million (B2 scenario) to US$12,279 million (A2 scenario) and for maritime transportation impact estimates range from US$1,992 million (B2 scenario) to US$2,606 million (A2 scenario). For international transportation as a whole, the impact of climate change varies from US$12,719 million under the B2 scenario to US$14,885 million under the A2 scenario. Barbados has the institutions set up to implement adaptive strategies to strengthen the resilience of the existing international transportation system to climate change impacts. Air and sea terminals and facilities can be made more robust, raised, or even relocated as need be, and where critical to safety and mobility, expanded redundant systems may be considered.

Population ageing in the Caribbean: An inventory of policies, programmes and future challenges

“We must be fully aware that while the developed countries became rich before they became old, the developing countries will become old before they become rich”. This statement made by Gro Harlem Brundtland, World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General, at the World Assembly on Ageing in 2002 in Madrid, reflects the challenges that the developing world is facing in the twentieth century. Population ageing is a global phenomenon, which is having and will have major implications on all aspects of human life in every society. This process is enduring and irreversible, as observed from differing patterns and distinct paces in various regions and countries all over the world. The United Nations has undertaken various efforts to repeatedly draw governments’ attention to the growing demand for answers to these encompassing and profound demographic changes. Various initiatives on the global as well as on the regional and subregional level have been undertaken to highlight the pressing need for concerted action. Of importance in this regard are the numerous agreements reached at the global conferences on social development, population and women orchestrated by the United Nations in the 1990s, which all refer to ageing as an issue of particular concern. The year 1999 was proclaimed by the General Assembly1 of the United Nations as the Year of Older Persons to recognize ageing as one of the major achievements but, at the same time, as one of the major challenges all populations have to cope with in the twentieth century. This continuous call for action culminated in the Second World Assembly on Ageing, which was held in Madrid 2002, where governments agreed to the implementation of a global action plan. This new Plan of Action focuses both on political priorities such as improvements in living conditions of older persons, combating poverty, social inclusion, individual self-fulfilment, human rights and gender equality. To an increasing degree attention is also devoted to such holistic and overarching themes as intergenerational solidarity, employment, social security, health and well-being. Mandated by the Second World Assembly on Ageing, the Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC/CELADE) has convened the Regional Intergovernmental Conference on Ageing in November 2003 in Santiago, where a regional strategy for the implementation (ECLAC, 2003b) of the commitments reached in Madrid has been adopted. Further, a background document (ECLAC 2003a) on the situation of the elderly in the Latin American and Caribbean region, of which this document is a substantive part, has been presented to the meeting. Participating government officials formally committed themselves to work on a national follow-up strategy and to report on the progress made in the implementation of their commitments to the Ad hoc Committee on Population and Development to be convened in 2004.

Operational guide for implementation and follow-up of the Montevideo Consensus on Population and Development

This document is the contribution of the Presiding Officers of the Regional Conference on Population and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean to the second session of the Regional Conference, to be held in Mexico City, on 6-9 October 2015. It is a technical tool intended to provide the countries of the region with specific guidelines for implementing the priority measures set forth in the Montevideo Consensus on Population and Development, and offers relevant inputs for monitoring that implementation at the national and regional levels.

Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action

This study addresses the ageing of the Caribbean population and the situation with respect to the human rights of older persons. It considers the implications for public policy of these ‘twin imperatives for action’. The first chapter describes and explains the changing age structure of the Caribbean population. Important features of the ageing dynamic, such as differential regional and national trends and the growing number of ‘older old’ persons, are also analysed. The study then describes the progress that has been made in advancing and clarifying the human rights of older persons in international law. The core of the study then consists of an assessment of the current situation of older persons in the Caribbean and the extent to which their human rights are realised in practice. The thematic areas of economic security, health, and enabling environments – which roughly correspond to the three priority areas of the Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing – are each addressed in individual chapters. These chapters evaluate national policies and programmes for older persons and make public policy recommendations intended to protect and fulfil the human rights of older persons. The report concludes by summarising the priorities for future action both through the establishment of new international human rights instruments as well as national policies and programmes.

Report of the first session of the Regional Conference on Population and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean: full integration of population dynamics into rights-based sustainable development with equality: key to the Cairo programme of action beyond 2014

Includes as annex the Montevideo Consensus on Population and Development