Development of a modelling framework in support of an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change in the Caribbean: the ECLAC – CIAM Model

The Caribbean region remains highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In order to assess the social and economic consequences of climate change for the region, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean( ECLAC) has developed a model for this purpose. The model is referred to as the Climate Impact Assessment Model (ECLAC-CIAM) and is a tool that can simultaneously assess multiple sectoral climate impacts specific to the Caribbean as a whole and for individual countries. To achieve this goal, an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) with a Computable General Equilibrium Core was developed comprising of three modules to be executed sequentially. The first of these modules defines the type and magnitude of economic shocks on the basis of a climate change scenario, the second module is a global Computable General Equilibrium model with a special regional and industrial classification and the third module processes the output of the CGE model to get more disaggregated results. The model has the potential to produce several economic estimates but the current default results include percentage change in real national income for individual Caribbean states which provides a simple measure of welfare impacts. With some modifications, the model can also be used to consider the effects of single sectoral shocks such as (Land, Labour, Capital and Tourism) on the percentage change in real national income. Ultimately, the model is envisioned as an evolving tool for assessing the impact of climate change in the Caribbean and as a guide to policy responses with respect to adaptation strategies.

Review of CARIFORUM-EU EPA in development cooperation and WTO compatability

The Cotonou Agreement which succeeded the Lomé IV Agreement and was signed in Cotonou in June 2000 established a comprehensive framework to govern social, economic and political relations between the Africa, Caribbean, Pacific (ACP) grouping and the European Union (EU). At the centre of the partnership are objectives relating to economic development, the reduction and eventual eradication of poverty, and the smooth and gradual integration of ACP States into the world economy. In order to accomplish these objectives, the Cotonou Agreement provides for the conclusion between the ACP and the EU of “new World Trade Organization (WTO) compatible trading arrangements, removing progressively barriers to trade between them and enhancing cooperation in all areas relevant to trade” (Article 36.1). The conclusion of economic partnership agreements (EPAs) represented one way to achieve a WTO compatible instrument and had to be negotiated during the period starting from September 2002 until 31 December 2007 to replace the trade provisions of the Cotonou Agreement. After three and half years of negotiations, CARIFORUM and the European Commission (EC) finally concluded a comprehensive EPA with the EC on 16 December 2007 when an Agreement was initialed. The EPA Parties agreed to sign it later after a review of the provisions at both the national and regional levels. In CARIFORUM, various comments have been made from governments, Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), the private sector and the labour movement about the strengths and weaknesses of the EPA. This review comes in this context and is confined to the development cooperation provisions and the question of WTO compatibility and consistency with the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) negotiations and existing WTO provisions on special and differential treatment.