Panorama del Transporte en América Latina y el Caribe en el 2000

Así como 1999 terminaba para el transporte intermodal latinoamericano con un panorama complejo, incierto y con definiciones pendientes, ahora se puede decir que el 2000 ha sido un año de considerable clarificación y de la puesta en marcha de grandes iniciativas. Son tres las que se destacan en este resumen del último año del siglo 20 y que tienden a reconocer la necesidad de una creciente integración de servicios, de infraestructura y tecnologías de la información.El panorama alentador para el 2001, no pretende ocultar el hecho que todavía persisten grandes obstáculos a la eficiencia de las operaciones de transporte, sino hacer presente que, como decía Enrique Iglesias, Presidente del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID), en una reunión de Ministros en Montevideo en diciembre de 2000, la nueva visión de la infraestructura asociada a los nuevos procesos de integración abierta, permite hoy pensar en proyectos rentables en los que la iniciativa privada tendrá interés en participar por que acompañan amplios desarrollos económicos regionales.La visión regional es otra de las características que comparten las iniciativas aprobadas y trabajos concluidos en el curso del año 2000 y que hacen pensar que tendrán repercusiones de considerable magnitud tanto en el 2001 como a lo largo de la naciente década.

Integrated transport systems in Latin America and the Caribbean: converging initiatives

The year 1998 is shaping up to be a year of grand regional initiatives focusing on the setting up of regional integrated transport systems. The past six months have seen intense activity in Latin America and the Caribbean. It would seem that the public and private sectors have agreed to launch converging initiatives, each from its own perspectives. In Central America, a multimodal transport project is already under way, while a new transport master plan put forward by the Permanent Secretariat of the General Treaty on Central American Economic Integration (SIECA) is being prepared; in South America, the Latin American Integration Association (LAIA) and Latin American Railways Association (ALAF) have launched a prefeasability study concerning a plan for the sustainable development of transport; the second Summit of the Americas adopted a plan of action that now takes in the work of the Executive Committee of the Western Hemisphere Transport Initiative; and the private sector also held its regional meeting in São Paulo, Brazil, with Intermodal 98, the fourth in a series. These initiatives are taking shape around similar lines of thought and action; their backgrounds are similar, and they tend towards the same goal: taking action in the immediate environment with a view to expanding linkages with the global economy. The background is the observation that after several years of growth, transport infrastructure, equipment and services appear unable to satisfy the growing demand of international trade in the region. The goal is to implement the requisite reforms in the transport sector so as to meet the challenges posed by global competition. This issue of the Bulletin is devoted to news about recent initiatives and possible future developments.

Current developments in the transport sector and future prospects

Over the past three years, talks conducted at the subregional level have led to the signing of multimodal transport agreements, and these have been implemented by Mercosur and reviewed by the Andean Community; multimodal transport is only now starting to come into its own in South America but is already a common practice in the region covered by NAFTA. These trends continued in 1997, with consolidation being the dominant theme; on the one hand, consolidation occurred in business, with integrated services increasingly on offer, while on the other the authorities became aware of the need to promote linkages between different modes of transport. Highlights of 1998 may well include major plans for investments in intermodal infrastructure and greater interaction between users and service providers in both the public and private sectors, in order to develop regional intermodal transport systems.

Tourist cruises in South America: new opportunities and challenges

More free time and disposable income not only in developed but also in emerging countries have generated a demand that shipping lines have capitalized on by offering ocean cruise services to an exponentially growing segment of the tourist industry. With the search for alternative destinations for ocean cruises, in recent years the Southern Cone countries of Latin America have been playing host to an encouraging number of passenger ships during the summer November-March season, suggesting that this sub-region could become a permanent feature of the circuit of international ocean cruises. To convert this into a reality, however, will require investment in port facilities and passenger terminals, thus presenting an opportunity for private participation in providing and running these facilities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and human settlements, tourism and transport sectors in Barbados

This report analyses the coastal and human settlements, tourism and transport sectors in Barbados to assess the potential economic impact of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Barbados. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050 (tourism and transport sectors) and 2100 (coastal and human settlements sector). An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The analysis has shown that based upon exposed assets and population, SLR can be classified as having the potential to create potential catastrophe in Barbados. The main contributing factor is the concentration of socioeconomic infrastructure along the coastline in vulnerable areas. The A2 and B2 projections have indicated that the number of catastrophes that can be classified as great is likely to be increased for the country. This is based upon the possible effects of the projected unscheduled impacts to the economy both in terms of loss of life and economic infrastructure. These results arise from the A2 and B2 projections, thereby indicating that growth in numbers and losses are largely due to socioeconomic changes over the projection period and hence the need for increased adaptation strategies. A key adaptation measure recommended is for the government of Barbados to begin reducing the infrastructure deficit by continuously investing in protective infrastructure to decrease the country’s vulnerability to changes in the climate. With regard to the tourism sector, it was found that by combining the impacts due to a reduction in tourist arrivals, coral reef loss and SLR, estimated total economic impact of climate change is US $7,648 million (A2 scenario) and US $5,127 million (B2 scenario). An economic analysis of the benefits and costs of several adaptation options was undertaken to determine the cost effectiveness of each one and it was found that four (4) out of nine (9) options had high cost-benefit ratios. It is therefore recommended that the strategies that were most attractive in terms of the cost-benefit ratios be pursued first and these were: (1) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (2) artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) development of national adaptation plans (levee, sea wall and boardwalk); (4) revision of policies related to financing carbon neutral tourism; and (5) increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures. The total cost of climate change on international transportation in Barbados aggregated the impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation, new climate policies and SLR. The impact for air transportation ranges from US$10,727 million (B2 scenario) to US$12,279 million (A2 scenario) and for maritime transportation impact estimates range from US$1,992 million (B2 scenario) to US$2,606 million (A2 scenario). For international transportation as a whole, the impact of climate change varies from US$12,719 million under the B2 scenario to US$14,885 million under the A2 scenario. Barbados has the institutions set up to implement adaptive strategies to strengthen the resilience of the existing international transportation system to climate change impacts. Air and sea terminals and facilities can be made more robust, raised, or even relocated as need be, and where critical to safety and mobility, expanded redundant systems may be considered.