Ocean freight, shipbuilding costs and charter rates: recent trends

This issue of the Bulletin provides a brief overview of the maritime transport industry in Latin America and the Caribbean, with a focus on the behaviour of freight rates and the costs associated with chartering and shipbuilding, all of which increased sharply in 2003. Three separate markets will be analysed: 1) the containerized general cargo market; 2) the dry bulk cargo market and 3) the liquid bulk (crude oil and oil products) market. This study has incorporated contributions made by professional experts in the field and institutions associated with ports and maritime transport in the region, received subsequent to the study prepared and disseminated in January 2004.

Recent increases in shipping costs and their impact on exports from Latin America

This issue of the FAL Bulletin is based on a study prepared by ECLAC which works out a provisional approach for estimating the impact of increases in freight rates on exports from Latin America during the last few quarters. The total cost of exports from the region reflects the increases in three different components: the quantities exported, the prices of the goods and the freight charges. The influence of each of these is estimated.The information bases used are comprised of data obtained from the World Trade Organization (WTO), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) (International Transport Database) and the authors own direct compilation. The conclusion is that total exports from Latin America varied by US$ 5.72 billion in the first half of 2004 compared with the first half of 2003; of this amount, US$ 2,105,000,000 correspond to the variation in price and quantity and US$ 3,615,000,000 represent the increase in export freight rates. When compared with the first half of 2002, the variation is in excess of US$ 8 billion.

New information and communications technologies for education in Latin America: risks and opportunities

Includes bibliography

An analysis of maritime transport and its costs for the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

The opportunities and risks associated with privatizing railways in Latin America

Most railways in Latin America were built by private firms, often foreign owned. Over time, owing to a combination of nationalizations and competition from road transport, virtually all railways passed into government hands; the railroad industry became more and more of a white elephant for the Government because of the ever-increasing subsidies it swallowed up, its dwindling role in national economies, and a conviction that Governments should not be involved in productive activities. Consequently, the late 1980s saw the start of a trend towards denationalization of railways, with the latter being turned over to private, often foreign, interests. In this way, the railway industry in Latin America has come full circle in the space of 150 years. So far, there has not been any assessment of the recent privatization of railways in Latin America. However, the conclusion would probably be that: (i) privatization has on the whole been successful, and (ii) the results achieved would have been more positive still, had some things been done slightly differently. One problem is that the bidding process has failed to take into account the positive externalities associated with railways, such as the contribution they make to reducing road maintenance costs and environmental damage caused by road transport. Another unresolved issue is whether to put the entire railway system up for tender, or to invite separate bids for infrastructure and services. Economies of scale operate in the railway industry, favouring the existence of a number of rail companies. In the past, the railway companies of neighbouring countries such as Argentina and Paraguay, and Bolivia and Chile, enjoyed ties at director level, but these came to an end with the nationalization of railways. Now that the era of State involvement is itself drawing to a close, we can expect to see the formation of integrated railway systems, one of which might extend from Quijarro, on the border between Bolivia and Brazil, to Puerto Montt in the south of Chile.

Sustainable development 20 years on from the earth summit: progress, gaps and strategic guidelines for Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Millennium development goals: progress towards the right to health in Latin america and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Cooperation on competition policy in Latin American and Caribbean bilateral trade agreements

Incluye Bibliografía

Promoting corporate social responsibility in small and medium enterprises in the Caribbean: methodology report

Incluye Bibliografía

Prices, property and markets in water allocation

Includes bibliography

Best practices, policy convergence and the WTO trade-related investment measures

Includes bibliography

The role of the State and the quality of the public sector

Sectoral policies make explicit and implicit assumptions about the behaviour and capabilities of the agents (such as dynamic responses to market signals, demand-led assistance, collaborative efforts, participation in financing); which we consider to be rather unrealistic. Because of this lack of realism, policies that aim to be neutral often turn out to be highly exclusive. They fail to give sufficient importance to the special features of the sector -with its high climatic, biological and commercial risks and its slow adaptation- or to the fact that those who take decisions in agriculture are now mostly in an inferior position because of their incomes below the poverty line, their inadequate training, their traditions based on centuries of living in precarious conditions, and their geographical location in marginal areas, far from infrastructure and with only a minimum of services and sources of information. These people have only scanty and imperfect access to the markets which, according to the prevailing model, should govern decisions and the (re);distribution of the factors of production. In our opinion, this explains the patchy and lower-than-expected growth registered by the sector after the reforms to promote the liberalization of markets and external openness in the region. In view of the results of the application of the new model, it may be wondered whether Latin America can afford a form of development which excludes over half of its agricultural producers; what the alternatives are; and what costs and benefits each of them offers in terms of production and monetary, social, spatial and other aspects. The article outlines the changes in policies and their results at the aggregate level, summarizes the arguments usually put forward to explain agricultural performance in the region, and proposes a second set of explanations based on a description of the agents and the responses that may be expected from them, contrasting the latter with the supposedly neutral nature of the policies.

Maritime and port security in South America: the situation in mid-2004

The current issue of the Bulletin is based on a document prepared by the ECLAC Transport Unit, Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division, on maritime and port security in South America: implementation of measures, general status as of mid-2004 (in Spanish only). This is a joint activity of the Technical Coordination Committee of the presidential initiative for Regional Infrastructure Integration in South America (IIRSA) and ECLAC. This document served as an input for a meeting on this subject held by representatives of the authorities of South American countries in Montevideo, Uruguay, on 22 June 2004. In this issue the results are presented of two recent surveys conducted by the users, operators and governmental authorities of the region on the new maritime and port security measures of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). An effort was made, on the one hand, to ascertain the existing level of awareness of the measures and the perceptions of impact, the potential costs and responsibility for the cost of the measures, and on the other hand to ascertain the degree of progress in their implementation, for which the deadline was 1 July 2004.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.