Inflation and stabilization policies

Senala algunos de los problemas destacados en el analisis de las causas y consecuencias de la inflacion y el diseno de politicas de estabilizacion; y examina un caso particular, el Plan Austral aplicado en Argentina desde mediados de 1985.

Resolución 13: Inflación = Resolution 13: Inflation = Résolution 13: Inflation

El símbolo E/840/Rev.1 corresponde a la edición bilingüe inglés/francés publicada en 1953

Inflation and growth = Inflación y crecimiento: Resumen de la experiencia en América Latina

Includes bibliography

ECLAC Notes Nº 30

The Economy of Latin America and the Caribbean Posts Modest Recovery Changes in Latin America and Caribbean Countries' Economic Policy Opinion by Alicia Bárcena, ECLAC's Deputy Executive Secretay. Financial Innovation and the Millennium Targets Highlights. Export Competitiveness and the Real Exchange Rate Indicators Inflation Declines and Employment Rises Recent titles and calendar of events

Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys

We examine the problem of combining Mexican inflation predictions or projections provided by a biweekly survey of professional forecasters. Consumer price inflation in Mexico is measured twice a month. We consider several combining methods and advocate the use of dimension reduction techniques whose performance is compared with different benchmark methods, including the simplest average prediction. Missing values in the database are imputed by two different databased methods. The results obtained are basically robust to the choice of the imputation method. A preliminary analysis of the data was based on its panel data structure and showed the potential usefulness of using dimension reduction techniques to combine the experts' predictions. The main findings are: the first monthly predictions are best combined by way of the first principal component of the predictions available; the best second monthly prediction is obtained by calculating the median prediction and is more accurate than the first one.

Exchange-rate variations and the rate of inflation in emerging economies

This paper develops a structural general equilibrium model to analyse the reactions of the nominal exchange rate and the domestic price level to three types of external shock in emerging economies that have limited access to world capital markets. Although the results depend crucially on the type of external shock, each of the two national balance-sheet parameters considered here —the risk premium and the ratio of external indebtedness— exacerbates the reactions of the two endogenous variables without altering the degree of exchange-rate pass-through (erpt). Moreover, flatter Phillips curves, as observed today in many economies, tend to increase erpt. On the basis of these results, the authorities of emerging economies seeking to stabilize markets and limit erpt are advised to minimize the two risk parameters by applying a flexible inflation-targeting regime.