22 resultados para ETF and ITF Load cases


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Includes bibliography

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Introduction There is a renewed call for a new approach to development with emphasis on community empowerment or participation, with the belief that more sustainable activities will be undertaken in those communities. Much of that call, however, is coming not from within the communities, but primarily from advocates of change who may have little to do with those communities. What then will the new approach bring apart from a change in who are the decision-makers? And how do we ensure that the change that is called for will, in fact, bring added benefits to the communities themselves? To be sure, there are some successful stories of a community approach to problem solving. However, there are also many more stories of project failures. Serious analytical work, therefore, needs to be done to determine the factors that promote a successful community-based approach; when this approach should be used; and the methodology that should be employed. In an attempt to determine these factors, a brief analysis will be made of some of the governing structures in the subregion and their possible impact on the proposed new approach. Some of the earlier efforts at stakeholder and community approach to projects will also be examined as well as the new development strategy that is prompting the call for this new paradigm. The new paradigm focuses to a large extent on decision-making and community empowerment. With few exceptions, it is short on the promotion of tangible activities that are based on the resource inventory of the communities. This is not surprising, since, as noted before, the advocates of community empowerment may have very little connection with the communities and, in most cases, are unfamiliar with the resource base. Hence, a theoretical case is made, suggesting more style than substance. Another obvious shortcoming of this new paradigm is its continued over- dependence on assistance from the outside to build communities. Externally funded projects, seminars and meetings outside of the communities and foreign technical assistance continue to dominate these projects. While, of course, all communities have basic common needs such as water, health, education and electricity, there is sufficient diversity within communities to allow for tailoring of activities and programmes such that their differences become assets. It is in that context, that agro-tourism activities, standards, agricultural diversification, food and nutrition and priority setting have been chosen as aspects and activities for promoting community development, drawing on the various strengths of communities, rural or urban.

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The two main forces affecting economic development are the ongoing technological revolution and the challenge of sustainability. Technological change is altering patterns of production, consumption and behaviour in societies; at the same time, it is becoming increasingly difficult to ensure the sustainability of these new patterns because of the constraints resulting from the negative externalities generated by economic growth and, in many cases, by technical progress itself. Reorienting innovation towards reducing or, if possible, reversing the effects of these externalities could create the conditions for synergies between the two processes. Views on the subject vary widely: while some maintain that these synergies can easily be created if growth follows an environmentally friendly model, summarized in the concept of green growth, others argue that production and consumption patterns are changing too slowly and that any technological fix will come too late. These considerations apply to hard technologies, essentially those used in production. The present document explores the opportunities being opened up by new ones, basically information and communication technologies, in terms of increasing the effectiveness (outcomes) and efficiency (relative costs) of soft technologies that can improve the way environmental issues are handled in business management and in public policy formulation and implementation.

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This report analyses the agriculture, energy, and health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Trinidad and Tobago. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on root crops, green vegetables and fisheries. For these sectors combined, the cumulative loss under the A2 scenario is calculated as approximately B$2.24 and approximately B$1.72 under the B2 scenario by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Given the potential for significant damage to the agriculture sector a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 10 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. All of the adaptation strategies showed positive benefits. The analysis indicate that the options with the highest net benefits are: (1) Building on-farm water storage, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Using drip irrigation. Other attractive options include water harvesting. The policy decisions by governments should include these assessments, the omitted intangible benefits, as well as the provision of other social goals such as employment. The analysis of the energy sector has shown that the economic impact of climate change during 2011-2050 is similar under the A2 (US$142.88 million) and B2 (US$134.83 million) scenarios with A2 scenario having a slightly higher cost (0.737% of 2009 GDP) than the B2 scenario (0.695% of 2009 GDP) for the period. On the supply side, analyses indicate that Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector will be susceptible to the climate change policies of major energy-importing countries (the United States of America and China), and especially to their renewable energy strategies. Implementation of foreign oil substitution policy by the United States of America will result in a decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export (equivalent to 2.2% reduction in 2009 GDP) unless an alternative market is secured for the lost United States of America market. China, with its rapid economic growth and the highest population in the world, offers a potential replacement market for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG export. In this context the A2 scenario will offer the best option for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. The cost-benefit analysis undertaken on selected adaptation strategies reveal that the benefit-cost ratio of replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters is the most cost-effective. It was also found that the introduction of Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) and Variable Refrigerant Volume (VRV) air conditioners surpasses the projected cost of increased electricity consumption due to climate change, and provides an economic rationale for the adoption of these adaptation options even in a situation of increased electricity consumption occasioned by climate change. Finally, the conversion of motor fleets to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a cost-effective adaptation option for the transport sector, although it has a high initial cost of implementation and the highest per capita among the four adaptation options evaluated. To investigate the effect of climate change on the health sector dengue fever, leptospirosis, food borne illnesses, and gastroenteritis were examined. The total number of new dengue cases for the period 2008 to 2050 was 204,786 for BAU, 153,725 for A2 and 131,890 for the B2 scenario. With regard to the results for leptospirosis, A2 and B2 seem to be following a similar path with total number of new cases in the A2 scenario being 9,727 and 9,218 cases under the B2 scenario. Although incidence levels in the BAU scenario coincided with those of A2 and B2 prior to 2020, they are somewhat lower post 2020. A similar picture emerges for the scenarios as they relate to food-borne illnesses and to gastroenteritis. Specifically for food-borne illnesses, the BAU scenario recorded 27,537 cases, the A2 recorded 28,568 cases and the B2 recorded 28,679 cases. The focus on the selected sources of morbidity in the health sector has highlighted the fact that the vulnerability of the country’s health sector to climate change does not depend solely on exogenously derived impacts, but also on the behaviour and practices among the population. It is clear that the vulnerability which became evident in the analysis of the impacts on dengue fever, leptospirosis and food-borne illnesses is not restricted solely to climate or other external factors. The most important adaptation strategy being recommended targets lifestyle, behaviour and attitude changes. The population needs to be encouraged to alter their behaviours and practices so as to minimise their exposure to harmful outcomes as it relates to the incidence of these diseases.