Economic survey of Latin America, 1982: Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: preliminary version

Includes bibliography

An assessment of mechanisms to improve energy efficiency in the transport sector in Grenada, Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Like many other Caribbean countries, Grenada, Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines are almost entirely dependent on imported petroleum as their primary source of energy. In this regard, many countries in the subregion have taken a strategic approach to long-term planning in the energy sector towards creating higher levels of efficiency on both the demand and supply sides as well as promoting diversification in the energy mix. Within this context, this study was conducted to present mechanisms to improve energy efficiency (EE) in the transport sector in Grenada, Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. For each country, the report presents a brief description of current trends in energy consumption generally as well as energy issues in the transport sector and programmes, initiatives and regulatory mechanisms currently in place that are contributing to energy efficiency in the sector.

The impact of climate change on the water sector in the Caribbean

This study econometrically analyses the projected impact of climate change on the water sector of nine Caribbean countries to 2100: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Montserrat, Jamaica, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago. Overall, all countries, with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago, are expected to suffer aggregate losses as result of climate change in the early periods ca. 2020 under one or more scenarios. Over time, some countries experience declining negative impacts, as in the case of Guyana under the B2 scenario. Some countries, such as the Dominican Republic, is projected to suffer increasing losses under the B2 scenario and, for others, the impacts do not follow a defined trend. The A2 scenario offers the best outcome for all countries, except Jamaica (where BAU is most desirable), Montserrat (which performs most poorly under the A2 scenario), and the Netherlands Antilles, which does best under the B2 case. Overall, relative to 2006, the total demand for water in the Caribbean is expected to fall by 2030 by 11.3% to approximately 12,967 million cubic meters. This is due to the expected fall in agricultural water demand by approximately 36% in that period. However, by 2050, total water demand for the Caribbean will again exceed the 2006 level by approximately 4% to 14,896.33 106 m3. By 2100, water demand will increase almost fivefold to approximately 69,233.69 106 m3. Climate change is expected to affect all countries in the Caribbean. In some cases, there will be positive impacts that may continue to increase over time and, in other cases, the impact will be negative and worsen over time. Overall, the agricultural sector is expected to suffer the worst losses over any scenario, whilst growth in the industrial sectors is expected to be significant and contribute the most to increasing water demand over time.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in Saint Vincent and The Grenadines

Water security which is essential to life and livelihood, health and sanitation, is determined not only by the water resource, but also by the quality of water, the ability to store surplus from precipitation and runoff, as well as access to and affordability of supply. All of these measures have financial implications for national budgets. The water sector in the context of the assessment and discussion on the impact of climate change in this paper includes consideration of the existing as well as the projected available water resource and the demand in terms of: quantity and quality of surface and ground water, water supply infrastructure - collection, storage, treatment, distribution, and potential for adaptation. Wastewater management infrastructure is also considered a component of the water sector. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines has two distinct hydrological regimes: mainland St Vincent is one of the wetter islands of the eastern Caribbean whereas the Grenadines have a drier climate than St Vincent. Surface water is the primary source of water supply on St Vincent, whereas the Grenadines depend on man-made catchments, rainwater harvesting, wells, and desalination. The island state is considered already water stressed as marked seasonality in rainfall, inadequate supply infrastructure, and institutional capacity constrains water supply. Economic modelling approaches were implemented to estimate sectoral demand and supply between 2011 and 2050. Residential, tourism and domestic demand were analysed for the A2, B2 and BAU scenarios. In each of the three scenarios – A2, B2 and BAU Saint Vincent and the Grenadines will have a water gap represented by the difference between the two curves during the forecast period of 2011 and 2050. The amount of water required increases steadily between 2011 and 2050 implying an increasing demand on the country‘s resources as reflected by the fact that the water supply that is available cannot respond adequately to the demand. The Global Water Partnership in its 2005 policy brief suggested that the best way for countries to build the capacity to adapt to climate change will be to improve their ability to cope with today‘s climate variability (GWP, 2005). This suggestion is most applicable for St Vincent and the Grenadines, as the variability being experienced has already placed the island nation under water stress. Strategic priorities should therefore be adopted to increase water production, increase efficiency, strengthen the institutional framework, and decrease wastage. Cost benefit analysis was stymied by data availability, but the ―no-regrets approach‖ which intimates that adaptation measures will be beneficial to the land, people and economy of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines with or without climate change should be adopted.

An assessment of the economic impact Of climate change on the health sector in Saint Lucia

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Saint Lucia for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the non-market, statistical life-based costs associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are a variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrhoeal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1, 2, and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $80.2 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) -$182.4 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for St. Lucia.1 These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving direct and indirect interventions in health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health costs from 2010-2050. In this context indirect interventions target sectors other than healthcare (e.g. water supply). It is also important to highlight that interventions can target both the supply of health infrastructure (including health status and disease monitoring), and households. It is suggested that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for St Lucia. Also, the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending is highlighted.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in Saint Kitts And Nevis

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty alleviation, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of St. Kitts and Nevis (SKN). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations for possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009 there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. In addition to temperature, there is also the threat of increased wind speeds. Since the early twentieth century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Saint Lucia, the estimated damage from 12 windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$1 billion or about 106% of 2009 GDP. Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. This report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above on the economy of Saint Lucia. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations, as well as those under two, likely, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate scenarios: A2 and B2.

Saint Lucia: survey of living conditions and household budgets 2005/2006. User's manual.

This manual contains information on the dataset compiled from the Survey of Living Conditions and Household Budgets (SLC/HBS) conducted in Saint Lucia by the Kairi Consultants Limited and National Assessment Team between 2005 and 2006. The SLC/HBS is a sample survey which generates data on households and individuals in the country. This manual was developed by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) – Subregional Headquarters in the Caribbean as a supplementary document for the Caribbean Household Surveys Database (CHSD). It is sectioned out into two main parts- section one provides brief description of the survey and section two contains a concise data dictionary of variables generated from the survey as well as additional variables created by ECLAC. In addition, for ease of reference, an index of all variables in the database is included at the end of the document.

Questionnaire and survey methodology. Saint Lucia: Survey of living condition and household budgets 2005/2006

This manual documents some of the material related to the Survey of Living Conditions and Household Budgets (SLC/HBS) conducted in Saint Lucia by the Kairi Consultants Limited and National Assessment Team between 2005 and 2006. The SLC/HBS is a sample survey which generates data on households and individuals in the country. The main objectives of this survey were (i) to collect information from households on their expenditure patterns, income and other characteristics and; (ii) to revise the 'average shopping basket' used in constructing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the country, and the relative weights of the items in the basket. The survey also provided valuable data for an assessment of the impact of socio-economic policies on the living conditions of the resident population in Saint Lucia. Further, data on households gathered in the survey also provide valuable inputs for the compilation of the country's National Accounts statistics relating to the household sector. This manual was developed by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) – Subregional Headquarters in the Caribbean as a supplementary document for the Caribbean Household Surveys Database (CHSD). The main components of this manual include survey methodology and the questionnaires used for data collection. The latter are included in the annex at the end of the document. All information contained therein was provided by the Statistics Department in Saint Lucia. The ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean is pleased to acknowledge the Saint Lucia Statistics Department for graciously consenting to the use of their surveys and metadata under the project Improving Caribbean Household Surveys. Due recognition must also be given to the Statistics and Economics Projection Division at ECLAC (Santiago) who provided guidance in the standardization of the datasets and the creation of the Caribbean Household Surveys Databank.