Bayesian outlier analysis in binary regression

We propose alternative approaches to analyze residuals in binary regression models based on random effect components. Our preferred model does not depend upon any tuning parameter, being completely automatic. Although the focus is mainly on accommodation of outliers, the proposed methodology is also able to detect them. Our approach consists of evaluating the posterior distribution of random effects included in the linear predictor. The evaluation of the posterior distributions of interest involves cumbersome integration, which is easily dealt with through stochastic simulation methods. We also discuss different specifications of prior distributions for the random effects. The potential of these strategies is compared in a real data set. The main finding is that the inclusion of extra variability accommodates the outliers, improving the adjustment of the model substantially, besides correctly indicating the possible outliers.

Limits of Visual Detection for Finasteride Polymorphs in Prepared Binary Mixtures: Analysis by X-ray Powder Diffraction

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Generalized linear mixed models for the genetic evaluation of binary reproductive traits: a simulation study

The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of probit and logit link functions for the genetic evaluation of early pregnancy using simulated data. The following simulation/analysis structures were constructed: logit/logit, logit/probit, probit/logit, and probit/probit. The percentages of precocious females were 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30% and were adjusted based on a change in the mean of the latent variable. The parametric heritability (h²) was 0.40. Simulation and genetic evaluation were implemented in the R software. Heritability estimates (ĥ²) were compared with h² using the mean squared error. Pearson correlations between predicted and true breeding values and the percentage of coincidence between true and predicted ranking, considering the 10% of bulls with the highest breeding values (TOP10) were calculated. The mean ĥ² values were under- and overestimated for all percentages of precocious females when logit/probit and probit/logit models used. In addition, the mean squared errors of these models were high when compared with those obtained with the probit/probit and logit/logit models. Considering ĥ², probit/probit and logit/logit were also superior to logit/probit and probit/logit, providing values close to the parametric heritability. Logit/probit and probit/logit presented low Pearson correlations, whereas the correlations obtained with probit/probit and logit/logit ranged from moderate to high. With respect to the TOP10 bulls, logit/probit and probit/logit presented much lower percentages than probit/probit and logit/logit. The genetic parameter estimates and predictions of breeding values of the animals obtained with the logit/logit and probit/probit models were similar. In contrast, the results obtained with probit/logit and logit/probit were not satisfactory. There is need to compare the estimation and prediction ability of logit and probit link functions.

RAPD analysis of genetic variability in a multiprovenance base population of Eucalyptus grandis hill ex maiden

Este estudo visou avaliar a variabilidade e distância genética dentro de uma população-base de melhoramento genético de Eucalyptus grandis. A avaliação da variabilidade genética tem como objetivos principais analisar a base genética da população-base e montar um banco de dados marcadores moleculares da população em análise. Essa população é formada por 327 indivíduos, principalmente das procedências de Coff's Harbour, Atherton e Rio Claro. Devido à heterozigosidade natural dessa população, ela pode ser dividida em diversas subpopulações, de acordo com a latitude e longitude de origem; e dentro de subpopulações, em função do grau de melhoramento genético já realizado do material analisado no Brasil. Isso permitiu avaliar quanto da variabilidade detectada dentro da população-base foi devido a esses fatores: procedência e grau de melhoramento. A aplicação da técnica RAPD permitiu avaliar 70 locos polimórficos, que foram analisados utilizando-se o coeficiente de Jaccard, o que resultou em matrizes de similaridade genética entre os indivíduos. Os dados de similaridade genética posteriormente foram submetidos à análise estatística. Osdados indicaram que a população-base apresenta ampla base genética, com média de similaridade genética de 0,328. O subgrupo denominado Região 3, composto por material selvagem da macrorregião de Atherton, juntamente com material de APS da macrorregião de Coff's Harbour, foi um dos que mais contribuíram para a ampla base genética da população-base. Foi possível detectar diferença estatística entre as populações selvagens das procedências de Atherton e Coff's Harbour, assim como entre essas procedências e a de Rio Claro.

Rheological, mechanical and mucoadhesive properties of thermoresponsive, bioadhesive binary mixtures composed of poloxamer 407 and carbopol 974P designed as platforms for implantable drug delivery systems for use in the oral cavity

This study described the formulation and characterisation of the viscoelastic, mechanical and mucoadhesive properties of thermoresponsive, binary polymeric systems composed of poloxamer (P407) and poly(acrylic acid, C974P) that were designed for use as a drug delivery platform within the oral cavity. Monopolymeric and binary polymeric formulations were prepared containing 10, 15 and 20% (w/w) poloxamer (407) and 0.10-0.25% (w/w) poly(acrylic acid, 934P). The flow theological and viscoelastic properties of the formulations were determined using controlled stress and oscillatory rheometry, respectively, the latter as a function of temperature. The mechanical and mucoadhesive properties (namely the force required to break the bond between the formulation and a pre-hydrated mucin disc) were determined using compression and tensile analysis, respectively. Binary systems composed of 10% (w/w) P407 and C934P were elastoviscous, were easily deformed under stress and did not exhibit mucoadhesion. Formulations containing 15 or 20% (w/w) Pluronic P407 and C934P exhibited a sol-gel temperature T(sol/gel), were viscoelastic and offered high elasticity and resistance to deformation at 37 degrees C. Conversely these formulations were elastoviscous and easily deformed at temperatures below the sol-gel transition temperature. The sol-gel transition temperatures of systems containing 15% (w/w) P407 were unaffected by the presence of C934P; however, increasing the concentration of C934P decreased the T(sol/gel) in formulations containing 20%(w/w) P407. Rheological synergy between P407 and C934P at 37 degrees C was observed and was accredited to secondary interactions between these polymers, in addition to hydrophobic interactions between P407 micelles. Importantly, formulations composed of 20% (w/w) P407 and C934P exhibited pronounced mucoadhesive properties. The ease of administration (below the T(sol/gel)) in conjunction with the viscoelastic (notably high elasticity) and mucoadhesive properties (at body temperature) render the formulations composed of 20% (w/w) P407 and C934P as potentially useful platforms for mucoadhesive, controlled topical drug delivery within the oral cavity. (c) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Dynamical collapse in a degenerate binary fermion mixture using a hydrodynamic model

We use a time-dependent dynamical hydrodynamic model to study a collapse in a degenerate fermion-fermion mixture ( DFFM) of different atoms. Due to a strong Pauli-blocking repulsion among identical spin-polarized fermions at short distances, there cannot be a collapse for repulsive interspecies fermion fermion interaction. However, there can be a collapse for a sufficiently attractive interspecies fermion-fermion interaction in a DFFM of different atoms. Using a variational analysis and numerical solution of the hydrodynamic model, we study different aspects of collapse in such a DFFM initiated by a jump in the interspecies fermion-fermion interaction ( scattering length) to a large negative ( attractive) value using a Feshbach resonance. Suggestion for experiments of collapse in a DFFM of distinct atoms is made.

Symmetry breaking in a localized interacting binary Bose-Einstein condensate in a bichromatic optical lattice

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A Contribution to the Estimation of Binary Halide and Pseudo-Halide Equilibrium Constants using a Linear Extrapolation Methodology

The molar single ion activity coefficient (y(F)) of fluoride ions was determined at 25 degrees C and ionic strengths between 0.100 and 3.00 mol L(-1) NaClO(4) using an ion-selective electrode. The activity coefficient dependency on ionic strength was determined to be Phi(F) = log y(F) = 0.2315I-0.041I(2). The function Phi(F)(I), combined with functions obtained in previous work for copper (Phi(Cu)) and hydrogen (Phi(H)), allowed us to make the estimation of the stoichiometric and thermodynamic protonation constants of some halides and pseudo-halides as well as the formation constants of some pseudo-halides and fluoride 1:1 bivalent cation complexes. The calculation procedure proposed in this paper is consistent with critically-selected experimental data. It was demonstrated that it is possible to use Phi(F)(I) for predicting the thermodynamic equilibrium parameters independently of Pearson's hardness of acids and bases.

Crystallization study of molybdate phosphate glasses by thermal analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Image analysis for assessing broiler breeder behavior response to thermal environment

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bayesian binary regression model: an application to in-hospital death after AMI prediction

Um modelo bayesiano de regressão binária é desenvolvido para predizer óbito hospitalar em pacientes acometidos por infarto agudo do miocárdio. Métodos de Monte Carlo via Cadeias de Markov (MCMC) são usados para fazer inferência e validação. Uma estratégia para construção de modelos, baseada no uso do fator de Bayes, é proposta e aspectos de validação são extensivamente discutidos neste artigo, incluindo a distribuição a posteriori para o índice de concordância e análise de resíduos. A determinação de fatores de risco, baseados em variáveis disponíveis na chegada do paciente ao hospital, é muito importante para a tomada de decisão sobre o curso do tratamento. O modelo identificado se revela fortemente confiável e acurado, com uma taxa de classificação correta de 88% e um índice de concordância de 83%.

A comparative floristic analysis of a cerrado area in Botucatu, State of São Paulo (Brazil)

Based on the results of a phytosociological survey in a ''cerrado'' area located within the municipality of Botucatu, state of São Paulo Brazil, a comparative analysis of the 58 sampled tree species' is here presented using the data of other available floristics works for the ''cerrados in the same state. With a binary matrix of presence/absence of shared common species with the studied plot, a clustering analysis was performed thus obtaining a dendrogram which groups northern and southern areas with the same vegetation in the state of São Paulo previously treated as floristicaly differentiated. These results are discussed under the assumption that Isolated areas of ''cerrados'' are to be taken as targets for immediate conservation.

Synthesis and properties of branched polyethylene/high-density polyethylene blends using a homogeneous binary catalyst system composed of early and late transition metal complexes

Branched polyethylene/high-density polyethylene blends (BPE/HDPE) with a wide range of molecular weights, melt flow indexes (MFI), and intrinsic viscosity were prepared using the homogeneous binary catalyst system composed by Ni(alpha-diimine)Cl-2 (1) (alpha-diimine = 1,4-bis(2,6-diisopropylphenyl)-acenaphthenediimine) and {Tp(Ms*)} TiCl3 (2) (Tp(Ms*)=hydridobis(3-mesitylpyrazol-1-yl)(5-mesityl-pyrazol-1-yl)) activated with MAO and/or TIBA in hexane at two different polymerization temperatures (30 and 55 degreesC) and by varying the nickel loading molar fraction (x(Ni)). At all Temperatures, a non-linear correlation between the x(Ni) and the productivity was observed, suggesting the occurrence of a synergistic effect between the nickel and the titanium catalyst precursors, which is more pronounced at 55 degreesC. The molecular weight of the BPE/HDPE blends considerably decreases with increasing Al/M molar ratio. The melt flow indexes (MFI) and intrinsic viscosities (eta) are strongly affected by x(Ni), but the melting temperatures are nearly constant, 132 +/- 3 degreesC. Dynamic mechanical thermal analysis (DMTA) shows the formation of different polymeric materials where the stiffness vanes according, to the x(Ni) and temperature used in the polymerization reaction. The surface morphology of the BPE/HDPE blends studied by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) revealed a low miscibility between the PE phases resulting in the formation of a sandwich structure after etching with o-xylene.

Variational studies and replica symmetry breaking in the generalization problem of the binary perceptron

We analyze the average performance of a general class of learning algorithms for the nondeterministic polynomial time complete problem of rule extraction by a binary perceptron. The examples are generated by a rule implemented by a teacher network of similar architecture. A variational approach is used in trying to identify the potential energy that leads to the largest generalization in the thermodynamic limit. We restrict our search to algorithms that always satisfy the binary constraints. A replica symmetric ansatz leads to a learning algorithm which presents a phase transition in violation of an information theoretical bound. Stability analysis shows that this is due to a failure of the replica symmetric ansatz and the first step of replica symmetry breaking (RSB) is studied. The variational method does not determine a unique potential but it allows construction of a class with a unique minimum within each first order valley. Members of this class improve on the performance of Gibbs algorithm but fail to reach the Bayesian limit in the low generalization phase. They even fail to reach the performance of the best binary, an optimal clipping of the barycenter of version space. We find a trade-off between a good low performance and early onset of perfect generalization. Although the RSB may be locally stable we discuss the possibility that it fails to be the correct saddle point globally. ©2000 The American Physical Society.

Context-sensitive analysis without calling-context

Since Sharir and Pnueli, algorithms for context-sensitivity have been defined in terms of 'valid' paths in an interprocedural flow graph. The definition of valid paths requires atomic call and ret statements, and encapsulated procedures. Thus, the resulting algorithms are not directly applicable when behavior similar to call and ret instructions may be realized using non-atomic statements, or when procedures do not have rigid boundaries, such as with programs in low level languages like assembly or RTL. We present a framework for context-sensitive analysis that requires neither atomic call and ret instructions, nor encapsulated procedures. The framework presented decouples the transfer of control semantics and the context manipulation semantics of statements. A new definition of context-sensitivity, called stack contexts, is developed. A stack context, which is defined using trace semantics, is more general than Sharir and Pnueli's interprocedural path based calling-context. An abstract interpretation based framework is developed to reason about stack-contexts and to derive analogues of calling-context based algorithms using stack-context. The framework presented is suitable for deriving algorithms for analyzing binary programs, such as malware, that employ obfuscations with the deliberate intent of defeating automated analysis. The framework is used to create a context-sensitive version of Venable et al.'s algorithm for analyzing x86 binaries without requiring that a binary conforms to a standard compilation model for maintaining procedures, calls, and returns. Experimental results show that a context-sensitive analysis using stack-context performs just as well for programs where the use of Sharir and Pnueli's calling-context produces correct approximations. However, if those programs are transformed to use call obfuscations, a contextsensitive analysis using stack-context still provides the same, correct results and without any additional overhead. © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011.