Why have land use change models for the Amazon failed to capture the amount of deforestation over the last decade?

Land cover change in the Neotropics represents one of the major drivers of global environmental change. Several models have been proposed to explore future trajectories of land use and cover change, particularly in the Amazon. Despite the remarkable development of these tools, model results are still surrounded by uncertainties. None of the model projections available in the literature plausibly captured the overall trajectory of land use and cover change that has been observed in the Amazon over the last decade. In this context, this study aims to review and analyze the general structure of the land use models that have most recently been used to explore land use change in the Amazon, seeking to investigate methodological factors that could explain the divergence between the observed and projected rates, paying special attention to the land demand calculations. Based on this review, the primary limitations inherent to this type of model and the extent to which these limitations can affect the consistency of the projections will also be analyzed. Finally, we discuss potential drivers that could have influenced the recent dynamic of the land use system in the Amazon and produced the unforeseen land cover change trajectory observed in this period. In a complementary way, the primary challenges of the new generation of land use models for the Amazon are synthesized. (c) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geotechnology applied to land use and sealing in urban areas

Through the geotechnology's use, the aim of this study was to characterize the urban occupation interference and occurrence of floods in the upstream area of watershed from the stream Wenzel (Rio Claro-SP/Brazil). Urbanized watersheds are composed of a variety of features and the development of cartographic material allowed the analysis of the evolution of land used for 1958 and 2006 scenarios. The thematic maps were generated using software Spring 4.3.3, wherein it got the separation of matters from vegetation cover and other intra urban features. Procedures of digital processes and classification of surface cover allowed quantifying the occupied area by each coverage type: woody vegetation, grass, grass with bare soil, bare soil, building, asphaltic sheets and exposed soil. Quantification of the different covers' occupied areas allowed relating the parameter Curve Number (Soil Conservation Service) as efficient methodology for runoff values estimative. The results indicate vegetation cover's reduction, intensive surface's sealing and suppression of water bodies. These factors imply changes of hydrological dynamics of the source, increasing flow and transfer of larger volumes of water and flood peaks to downstream sectors. The use of geotechnology allowed analyzing the evolution of urbanization and it permits also to infer about trends for future or inadequate occupancy to hydrological and environmental point of view. © 2013 IEEE.

Cerrado vegetation and global change: the role of functional types, resource availability and disturbance in regulating plant community responses to rising CO2 levels and climate warming

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Analysis of land use and occupancy in permanent preservation areas according to the hydrography of Ribeirão Água Fria - Bofete, SP - Brazil

Os conflitos de uso são determinados pelas ocupações inadequadas do solo, como é o caso de ocupação do solo dentro de áreas de preservação permanente. O presente trabalho teve como objetivos determinar as classes de uso do solo e se há conflitos dentro de áreas de preservação permanente ao longo da rede de drenagem da microbacia do Ribeirão Água Fria, município de Bofete (SP). Situa-se geograficamente entre as coordenadas: 48°09'30 a 48°18'30 de longitude WGr., 22°58'30 a 23°04'30 de latitude sul com uma área de 15.242,84 ha. O mapa de uso do solo foi elaborado por meio da interpretação diretamente na tela do computador de imagem digital de satélite. Nos dados orbitais, a área de estudo está inserida no quadrante A, da imagem TM/Landsat-5, órbita 220, ponto 76, passagem de 8/09/2007. O Sistema de Informação Geográfica empregado foi o Cartalinx. As áreas de conflito da microbacia foram obtidas a partir do cruzamento entre os mapas de uso do solo e de APPs. Os resultados permitiram concluir que mais da metade da área (51,09%) está ocupada por pastagens, reflexo de solos arenosos e de baixa fertilidade. Constatou-se, ainda, que apesar de quase metade da microbacia estar coberta com algum tipo de vegetação (48,78% de mata natural/reflorestamento), possui aproximadamente um terço das áreas de preservação permanente utilizadas inadequadamente por pastagens (88,15%), reflorestamento (10,42%) e solo exposto (1,43%), totalizando 343,07 ha de áreas conflitantes em um total de 993,26 ha de APPs.

The effects of land use and soil management on the physical properties of an Oxisol in Southeast Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Land use and thermal comfort in the county of Ourinhos, SP

This study aims to analyze the thermal comfort in urban areas for different land uses. The ENVImet microclimatic model has been used for urban boundary layer simulation, providing the following thermal comfort indexes: PMV (Predicted Mean Vote) and PPD (Predicted Percentage of Dissatisfaction). The chosen area covers the central area in the city of Ourinhos, located in southeastern Brazilian city, with subtropical climate. Four simulations were accomplished: an area with real buildings and vegetation on site, a “grassy” area where buildings have been replaced by grass in the central area, another grassy area, known as “grass/tree”, with additional trees in, and a final area called “Park” also grassy, where trees were added all over the area. The structures which showed thermal comfort within the ISO 7730 standards were the grassy area with no trees at 9 a.m., and a paved area, as well as the park area at 3 p.m. Other situations have presented values of PMV and PPD off the limits required by the rules; they were very close to those values. The only point that presented a far cry from the comfort required was the spot in the asphalt at 9 a.m. The other situations showed PMV and PPD values not far from the limits of comfort. Only the point on the asphalt showed values far from the limit of comfort at 9 a.m.

Processos geodinâmicos associados a mudanças de uso da terra: o caso da microbacia hidrográfica do Córrego Caçula (Ilha Solteira - SP)

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Civil - FEIS

Soil erosion fragility assessment using an impact model and geographic information system

A study was taken in a 1566 ha watershed situated in the Capivara River basin, municipality of Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil. This environment is fragile and can be subjected to different forms of negative impacts, among them soil erosion by water. The main objective of the research was to develop a methodology for the assessment of soil erosion fragility at the various different watershed positions, using the geographic information system ILWIS version 3.3 for Windows. An impact model was created to generate the soil's erosion fragility plan, based on four indicators of fragility to water erosion: land use and cover, slope, percentage of soil fine sand and accumulated water flow. Thematic plans were generated in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. First, all the variables, except land use and cover, were described by continuous numerical plans in a raster structure. The land use and cover plan was also represented by numerical values associated with the weights attributed to each class, starting from a pairwise comparison matrix and using the analytical hierarchy process. A final field check was done to record evidence of erosive processes in the areas indicated as presenting the highest levels of fragility, i.e., sites with steep slopes, high percentage of soil fine sand, tendency to accumulate surface water flow, and sites of pastureland. The methodology used in the environmental problems diagnosis of the study area can be employed at places with similar relief, soil and climatic conditions.

Biodiversity conservation in human-modified Amazonian forest landscapes

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Land use image classification through optimum-path forest clustering

Land use classification has been paramount in the last years, since we can identify illegal land use and also to monitor deforesting areas. Although one can find several research works in the literature that address this problem, we propose here the land use recognition by means of Optimum-Path Forest Clustering (OPF), which has never been applied to this context up to date. Experiments among Optimum-Path Forest, Mean Shift and K-Means demonstrated the robustness of OPF for automatic land use classification of images obtained by CBERS-2B and Ikonos-2 satellites. © 2011 IEEE.

Sensoriamento remoto e Sistemas de Informações Geográficas (SIG) na análise dos impactos referentes à cultura canavieira e reflorestamento: a subtração dos biomas nativos no município de Itirapina-SP

The main objective of this study was to perform a temporal analysis of land use and cover of Itirapina – São Paulo estate, Brazil, for 1962, 2000 and 2008 scenarios, indicating the rate of change in native vegetation and contextualizing its modifications. Based on photointerpretation performed by supervised classification using the method of Bhattacharya, the thematic classes were mapped and characterized in an area equivalent to 56400 hectares. Using remote sensing technologies and geographic information systems, was structured and implemented a georeferenced and relational database, allowing the analysis of the size of the area occupied. The results showed that the expansion of cultivation of cane sugar and reforestation in the past 45 years has been conditioned the fragmentation of natural vegetation cover in the city, which fell by 34793 ha (61,7%) in 1962 to 9765,2 ha (17,3%) in 2008, with the loss of 25027,8 hectares.

Aplicação de técnicas de geoprocessamento para a avaliação da expansão urbana no municípo de Duque de Caxias (RJ) como subsídio ao monitoramento de dutos: trecho da faixa de dutos Rio de Janeiro - Belo Horizonte

Different forms of human pressure may occur in the pipeline ranges, due to the large extensions and various configurations of land use, which can pass through the pipelines. Due to the dynamics of these pressures, it is necessary to monitor temporal changes of land use and cover the surface. Under this theme, appears as extremely important to use products and techniques of remote sensing, as they allow the identification of objects of the land surface that may compromise the security and monitoring of the pipeline, and allows the extraction of information conditions on land use at different periods of time. Based on the above, this paper aims to examine in a temporal approach, the process of urban expansion in the municipality of Duque de Caxias, located on the outskirts of the metropolitan area of the state of Rio de Janeiro, as well as settlement patterns characteristic of areas that the changes occurred in the period 1987 to 2010. We used the technique of visual analysis to perform the change detection and the technique of image classification, aimed at monitoring human pressure over a stretch of track pipeline Rio de Janeiro - Belo Horizonte, located in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The stages of work involved the characterization of the study area, urban sprawl and the existing settlement patterns, through the analysis of bibliographic data. The processing of Landsat 5 images and the application of the technique of change detection were performed in three scenes for the years 1987, 1998 and 2010, while the classification process was performed on the image RapidEye for the year 2010. Can be noted an increase in urban area of approximately 22.38% and the change of land cover from natural to built. This growth is concentrated outside to the area of direct influence of the duct, occurring in the area of indirect influence of the enterprise. Regarding the settlement patterns of growth areas, it was observed that these are predominantly

Zoneamento geoambiental da região compreendida pelas folhas topográficas São José dos Campos e Jacareí-SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Zoneamento geoambiental do município de São João da Boa Vista (SP)

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

Spatial distribution of runoff depth from a watershed located in a cuesta relief area of São Paulo State, Brazil

This study was undertaken in a 1566 ha drainage basin situated in an area with cuesta relief in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The objectives were: 1) to map the maximum potential soil water retention capacity, and 2) to simulate the depth of surface runoff in each geographical position of the area based on a typical rainfall event. The database required for the development of this research was generated in the environment of the geographical information system ArcInfo v.10.1. Undeformed soil samples were collected at 69 points. The ordinary kriging method was used in the interpolation of the values of soil density and maximum potential soil water retention capacity. The spherical model allowed for better adjustment of the semivariograms corresponding to the two soil attributes for the depth of 0 to 20 cm, while the Gaussian model enabled a better fit of the spatial behavior of the two variables for the depth of 20 to 40 cm. The simulation of the spatial distribution revealed a gradual increase in the depth of surface runoff for the rainfall event taken as example (25 mm) from the reverse to the peripheral depression of the cuesta (from west to east). There is a positive aspect observed in the gradient, since the sites of highest declivity, especially those at the front of the cuesta, are closer to the western boundary of the watershed where the lowest depths of runoff occur. This behavior, in conjunction with certain values of erodibility and depending on the land use and cover, can help mitigate the soil erosion processes in these areas.