75 resultados para uncertainty quantification

em Repositório Institucional UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Julio de Mesquita Filho"


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A common approach used to estimate landscape resistance involves comparing correlations of ecological and genetic distances calculated among individuals of a species. However, the location of sampled individuals may contain some degree of spatial uncertainty due to the natural variation of animals moving through their home range or measurement error in plant or animal locations. In this study, we evaluate the ways that spatial uncertainty, landscape characteristics, and genetic stochasticity interact to influence the strength and variability of conclusions about landscape-genetics relationships. We used a neutral landscape model to generate 45 landscapes composed of habitat and non-habitat, varying in percent habitat, aggregation, and structural connectivity (patch cohesion). We created true and alternate locations for 500 individuals, calculated ecological distances (least-cost paths), and simulated genetic distances among individuals. We compared correlations between ecological distances for true and alternate locations. We then simulated genotypes at 15 neutral loci and investigated whether the same influences could be detected in simple Mantel tests and while controlling for the effects of isolation-by distance using the partial Mantel test. Spatial uncertainty interacted with the percentage of habitat in the landscape, but led to only small reductions in correlations. Furthermore, the strongest correlations occurred with low percent habitat, high aggregation, and low to intermediate levels of cohesion. Overall genetic stochasticity was relatively low and was influenced by landscape characteristics.

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The characterization of soil CO2 emissions (FCO2) is important for the study of the global carbon cycle. This phenomenon presents great variability in space and time, a characteristic that makes attempts at modeling and forecasting FCO2 challenging. Although spatial estimates have been performed in several studies, the association of these estimates with the uncertainties inherent in the estimation procedures is not considered. This study aimed to evaluate the local, spatial, local-temporal and spatial-temporal uncertainties of short-term FCO2 after harvest period in a sugar cane area. The FCO2 was featured in a sampling grid of 60m×60m containing 127 points with minimum separation distances from 0.5 to 10m between points. The FCO2 was evaluated 7 times within a total period of 10 days. The variability of FCO2 was described by descriptive statistics and variogram modeling. To calculate the uncertainties, 300 realizations made by sequential Gaussian simulation were considered. Local uncertainties were evaluated using the probability values exceeding certain critical thresholds, while the spatial uncertainties considering the probability of regions with high probability values together exceed the adopted limits. Using the daily uncertainties, the local-spatial and spatial-temporal uncertainty (Ftemp) was obtained. The daily and mean emissions showed a variability structure that was described by spherical and Gaussian models. The differences between the daily maps were related to variations in the magnitude of FCO2, covering mean values ranging from 1.28±0.11μmolm-2s-1 (F197) to 1.82±0.07μmolm-2s-1 (F195). The Ftemp showed low spatial uncertainty coupled with high local uncertainty estimates. The average emission showed great spatial uncertainty of the simulated values. The evaluation of uncertainties associated with the knowledge of temporal and spatial variability is an important tool for understanding many phenomena over time, such as the quantification of greenhouse gases or the identification of areas with high crop productivity. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

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In the present study we evaluated the precision of the ELISA method to quantify caffeine in human plasma and compared the results with those obtained by gas chromatography. A total of 58 samples were analyzed by gas chromatography using a nitrogen-phosphorus detector and routine techniques. For the ELISA test, the samples were diluted to obtain a concentration corresponding to 50% of the absorbance of the standard curve. To determine whether the proximity between the I50 of the standard curve and that of the sample would bring about a more precise result, the samples were divided into three blocks according to the criterion of difference, in modulus, of the I50 of the standard curve and of the I50 of the sample. The samples were classified into three groups. The first was composed of 20 samples with I50 up to 1.5 ng/ml, the second consisted of 21 samples with I50 ranging from 1.51 to 3 ng/ml, and the third of 17 samples with I50 ranging from 3.01 to 13 ng/ml. The determination coefficient (R² = 0.999) showed that the data obtained by gas chromatography represented a reliable basis. The results obtained by ELISA were also reliable, with an estimated Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.82 between the two methods. This coefficient for the different groups (0.88, 0.79 and 0.49 for groups 1, 2 and 3, respectively) showed greater reliability for the test with dilutions closer to I50.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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The carotenoid composition of Brazilian Valencia orange juice was determined by open column chromatography (OCC) and high-performance liquid chromatography. Carotenoid pigments were extracted using acetone and saponified using 10% methanolic potassium hydroxide. Sixteen pigments were isolated by OCC and identified as alpha-carotene, zeta-carotene, beta-carotene, alpha-cryptoxanthin, beta-cryptoxanthin, lutein-5,6-epoxide, violaxanthin, lutein, antheraxanthin, zeaxanthin, luteoxanthin A, luteoxanthin B, mutatoxanthin A, mutatoxanthin B, auroxanthin B and trollichrome B. Thirteen carotenoid pigments were separated using a ternary gradient (acetonitrile-methanol-ethyl acetate) elution on a C-18 reversed-phase column. Among these, violaxanthin, lutein, zeaxanthin, beta-cryptoxanthin, zeta-carotene, alpha-carotene, and beta-carotene were quantified. The total carotenoid content was 12 +/- 6.7 mg/1, and the major carotenoids were lutein (23%), beta-cryptoxanthin (21%), and zeaxanthin (20%). 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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This paper presents a method for calculating the power flow in distribution networks considering uncertainties in the distribution system. Active and reactive power are used as uncertain variables and probabilistically modeled through probability distribution functions. Uncertainty about the connection of the users with the different feeders is also considered. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate the possible load scenarios of the users. The results of the power flow considering uncertainty are the mean values and standard deviations of the variables of interest (voltages in all nodes, active and reactive power flows, etc.), giving the user valuable information about how the network will behave under uncertainty rather than the traditional fixed values at one point in time. The method is tested using real data from a primary feeder system, and results are presented considering uncertainty in demand and also in the connection. To demonstrate the usefulness of the approach, the results are then used in a probabilistic risk analysis to identify potential problems of undervoltage in distribution systems. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Fifteen stallions of different breeds, age 3-11 years, had their right testicles evaluated by fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC). Cytological analysis showed the following spermatogenic cell types: spermatogonia (1.6% +/- 1.1); spermatocyte I (3.4% +/- 2.2); spermatocyte II (0.8% +/- 0.7); early spermatids (25.5% +/- 9.5); late spermatids (37.0% +/- 9.3). Spermatozoal numbers were expressed as the spermatic index (SI = 31.5% +/- 8.5) and Sertoli cells mere expressed as the Sertoli cell index (SEI = 20.9% +/- 17.0) (means +/- s.d). Identification of cell types was relatively easy and no immediate adverse effects of aspiration were noted. The results suggest that FNAC of testis may assist clinical diagnosis in the study of male equine infertility.

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Levels of rabies virus neutralization antibody in sera from vaccinated dogs and cattle were either measured by mouse neutralization test (MNT) or by rapid fluorescent focus inhibition test (RFFIT), performed on CER monolayers. The two tests were compared for their ability to detect the 0.5 International Units/ml (I.U.) recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) as the minimum response for proof of rabies immunization. A significant correlation was found between the two tests (n = 211; r = 0.9949 in dogs and 0.9307 in cows, p < 0.001), good sensitivity (87.5%), specificity (94.7%) and agreement (96.6%) as well. RFFIT method standardized on CER cell system for neutralizing antibodies detection turns the diagnosis easier and less expensive, specially when a great number of samples must be tested from endemic areas as commonly found in Brazil. (c) 2005 the International Association for Biologicals. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Low-level laser therapy (LLLT) accelerates tissue repair. Mast cells induce the proliferation of fibroblasts and the development of local fibrosis. The objective of this study was to quantify fibrosis rate and mast cells in connective tissue after endodontic sealer zinc oxide and eugenol (ZOE) was implanted and submitted to LLLT, immediately after implant and again 24 h later. Sixty mice were distributed into three groups: GI, GII, and GIII (n = 20). In GI, the tubes filled with Endofill were implanted in the animals and were not irradiated with LLLT. In GII, the tubes containing Endofill were implanted in the animals and then irradiated with red LLLT (InGaAIP) 685-nm wavelength, D=72 J/Cm(2), E = 2 J, T=58 s, P=35 mW, and in GIII, the tubes with Endofill were implanted and irradiated with infrared LLLT (AsGaAl) 830-nm wavelength, D=70 J/Cm(2), E = 2 J, T=40 s, P=50 mW. After 7 days and 30 days, the animals were killed. A series of 6-mu m-thick sections were obtained and stained with Toluidine Blue and Picrosirius and analyzed under a standard light microscope using a polarized light filter for the quantification of fibrosis. The statistics were qualitative and quantitative with a significance of 5%. The irradiation with LLLT did not offer improvement in the fibrosis rate, however, it provided a significant decrease in the concentration of independent mast cells for the period studied.