Rentabilidade e Risco da Produção de Milho Safrinha Geneticamente Modificado e Convencional na Região de Guaíra/sp

The objective of this study was to dimension the economic risks and returns on adopters of genetically modified (GM) maize in one of the major corn producing regions of São Paulo state. We performed analysis of variation of the quantities and prices of insecticides used, productivity gains, and variation in the price differentials between GM maize and conventional hybrids seeds, according to account to the maize prices oscillation during the period studied. The net benefits methodology was used, in other words, the economic gains minus the costs of GM technology under risk conditions were calculated. The net benefits was calculated as a function of four critical variables: 1) GM maize productivity; 2) costs of pest control; 3) maize price; 4) GM seeds cost. The probability distribution functions of these critical variables were estimated and included in the net benefit equation. Using the Monte Carlo simulation methodology, the following indicator sets were estimated: central tendency measurements, variability in net benefits (total benefits minus total costs), sensitivity analysis of the net benefits in relation to the critical variables, and finally, a map of the risk to GM technology adopters. These indicators allow one to design economic scenarios associated with their probability of occurring. The results showed probability of 85% to positive gains to the farmers who adopted the transgenic maize seed cultivation. The variable with the greatest impact on the farmers' income was the reduction in productivity loss, that means, as higher is the maize productivity, higher will be the net income. The average gain was US$ 137,41 (R$ 2.45/US$)per hectare with the adoption of transgenic maize seed when compared to conventional maize seed.

Risk management in software projects through Knowledge Management techniques: Cases in Brazilian Incubated Technology-Based Firms

In businesses such as the software industry, which uses knowledge as a resource, activities are knowledge intensive, requiring constant adoption of new technologies and practices. Another feature of this environment is that the industry is particularly susceptible to failure; with this in mind, the objective of this research is to analyze the integration of Knowledge Management techniques into the activity of risk management as it applies to software development projects of micro and small Brazilian incubated technology-based firms. Research methods chosen were the Multiple Case Study. The main risk factor for managers and developers is that scope or goals are often unclear or misinterpreted. For risk management, firms have found that Knowledge Management techniques of conversion combination would be the most applicable for use; however, those most commonly used refer to the conversion mode as internalization.. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. APM and IPMA.

A simple approach to integrate the ecotoxicological and chemical data for the establishment of environmental risk levels

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Soil loss risk and habitat quality in streams of a meso-scale river basin

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Environmental education and the health risk question: how do we educate the educators working with this theme?

Our society is presently seeing a trend of continuous increase of risk with severe consequences, especially those linked to environmental aspects. It has obligated us to reflect on this production and its effects, either positive or negative, and, after a long reflection, to think about the adopted model of civilization and the possibilities of changing such a model. The educational institution is among the social departments responsible for this revision process, since it represents one possibility to promote a more critical vision from society, providing it with tools needed for a more responsible action. However, schools are dominated by a traditional work, which does not allow for enough and proper attention to these relevant and current questions, and which involve a critical analysis of the conceptions and values established by our civilization, resulting in the present patterns of science-technology-society relations and their influence on the environment and health. Several research works have indicated a diversity of barriers that obstruct this necessary change. Since formal education plays an important role in the education of society for this theme, in this paper the possibilities and difficulty dealing with this problem are discussed, focusing on the question of teacher education, based on investigations related to teacher education programs for environmental education. The data collected show the urgency for introducing this theme in teacher training programs, taking into account the fact that educators have their own conceptions, values and attitudes that should be considered in these programs.

Risk/investment-driven transmission expansion planning with multiple scenarios

This study presents a new methodology based on risk/investment to solve transmission network expansion planning (TNEP) problem with multiple future scenarios. Three mathematical models related to TNEP problems considering multiple future generation and load scenarios are also presented. These models will provide planners with a meaningful risk assessment that enable them to determine the necessary funding for transmission lines at a permissible risk level. The results using test and real systems show that the proposed method presents better solutions compared with scenario analysis method. ©The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2013.

Reactive power planning under conditional-value-at-risk assessment using chance-constrained optimisation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)