Crise do subprime: como a bolha imobiliária e o mercado financeiro derrubaram a economia americana em 2008, e os reflexos da crise para o Brasil

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A crise do subprime e seus efeitos sobre os Estados Unidos e reflexos no Brasil

Between December 2007 and June 2009 the United States witnessed 18 months of recession that became known as the subprime crisis. Beginning in the housing market, the crisis moved into the banking and financial markets and spread throughout the entire economy through a domino effect, affecting the majority of other businesses. A major reflection of this was the large rise in unemployment rates due to business slashing jobs in an attempt to preserve cash. Although the crisis has officially ended, the unemployment rate reached over 10% in 2010 in the United States. American's continue to seek new jobs in a very difficult employment market, while attempting to manage the family household budget. American household income, which decreased either by pay cuts, job loss, and the effects of inflation, leads the majority of Americans to declare that the crisis had not yet ended. The crisis has spread to the world in varying degrees. Brazil was one of the countries least affected due to government policies and the large amount of foreign exchange. Although the crisis has affected Brazil only slightly, we will show how it reached this country and how the government solved this problem. This research paper will explain how the subprime crisis began, how it manifested itself in the U.S. economy and throughout the population. Also, it will show the crisis’ effects in Brazil and show some statements from Americans with their respective views and their experiences relative to the crisis

Direcionamento de crédito: uma análise sobre os efeitos da atuação do BNDES durante a crise do Subprime

This essay treats the government acting on the National Financial System (SFN) through the policy of directing credit, a common practice within industrialization attempts. In Brazil this policy occurred mainly through the principal instrument of the government on the financial system, the National Bank of Economic and Social Development (BNDES). It will be explained BNDES’ position within public finances and its ability to mobilize or act as an intermediary for mobilizing resources for the economy. Will also be addressed the countercyclical characteristics of BNDES’ disbursements in the Brazilian economy using as a backdrop the financial crisis that erupted in the overthrow of the mortgages in the USA, also known as the subprime crisis. Finally we will present the main ideas behind the criticism and praise that this model with strong state presence in the financial system suffers

Identifying financial crises in real time

Following the thermodynamic formulation of a multifractal measure that was shown to enable the detection of large fluctuations at an early stage, here we propose a new index which permits us to distinguish events like financial crises in real time. We calculate the partition function from which we can obtain thermodynamic quantities analogous to the free energy and specific heat. The index is defined as the normalized energy variation and it can be used to study the behavior of stochastic time series, such as financial market daily data. Famous financial market crashes-Black Thursday (1929), Black Monday (1987) and the subprime crisis (2008)-are identified with clear and robust results. The method is also applied to the market fluctuations of 2011. From these results it appears as if the apparent crisis of 2011 is of a different nature to the other three. We also show that the analysis has forecasting capabilities. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelagem estocástica de opções de câmbio no Brasil: aplicação de transformada rápida de Fourier e expansão assintótica ao modelo de Heston

Pós-graduação em Física - IFT

A crise da Grécia: origens, interpretações e alternativas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Finanças comportamentais e a formação de bolhas especulativas

Economic crises caused by speculative bubbles are recurring in economic history but there is still no consensus on how it begins, grows and overflows. Economists and regulators seem to be inefficient in predicting and preventing this process, which is so detrimental to economic functioning. This failure proved to be obvious with the American subprime crises, which had great impact on various sectors of the U.S. economy. In this paper, we perform a literature review of the traditional theory of finance, mainly represented by the Efficient Market Hypothesis. According to this theory, asset prices always reflect their intrinsic value, assumption that doesn’t match the price boom followed by a crash, observed in the crisis generated by speculative bubbles. Finally, we present a new way to analyze this phenomenon, in the light of the investors’ behavioral aspects and the flaws inherent to the financial markets

Banco central e política econômica: uma comparação entre Brasil e Argentina no período de 2005 a 2010

Este trabalho visa a compreensão das diferenças nos Regimes monetários de Brasil e Argentina, apesar de sua proximidade geográfica. Objetiva-se explanar os intrumentos utilizados pelos respectivos Bancos Centrais durante os anos compreendidos pelo estudo, como meio de compreensão das transformações ocorridas no cenário econômico, seja pelos choques externos, como também pelas medidas tomadas. Assim sendo, a partir da planificação dos modelos nacionais, será possível comparar as situações internas econômica-social em contraposição ao ambiente criado pela Crise do Subprime, e consequentemente compreender qual país conseguiu enfrentá-la de forma mais eficaz

O Programa Minha Casa Minha Vida, o mercado imobiliário e o direito à cidade: análise dos impactos do programa na cidade de São Carlos - SP

This article discusses, in general matters, the economic and social motivations, the organization and development of the program Minha Casa Minha Vida, made in 2009, by Federal Government of Brazil. The objective of this work was to analyse the Brazilian economic and housing context, and the program relation with the Subprime international crisis, which has been started at United States in 2008, as well as analysing and discussing the logistics and the program accessibility. The MCMV program, part of the PAC – Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento – has the intention to combat the economic crisis that had been installed and also minimize the deficit housing of the country. From PAC's initial estimate, US$250 Bi, it has been spent US$129 Bi and it has already been approved more than US$125 Bi designated for the second stage of the program, whose the estimate of PAC2 is about one trillion and a half of brazilian reais. One million homes were built between 2009 and 2012, and the goal for 2014 is two million and a half of new residences. If comparing the current program with the oldest programs, progress were observed ,however, problems and inconsistences are clearly seen: in the real concernment, the truly beneficiary, and contradiction between a social and economic program to urban demands, among other situational factors. It’s also evident, the incentivation for a new residential and closed neighbourhoods, thereby adding to the fragmentation of the urban space, beyond of the exclusion socioespacial caused financing of residences in farest allotments. The capitalist production of the space it’s clearly thriving in analysis of thisfinancing package of the urban habitation, where the biggest glebas rise between central neighbourhood and the newest generated suburb, they evidence the negligence of the authorities in well managing the space, not executing the application of urban instruments of planning the social function, and...

O setor de venture capital, as startups e o empreendedorismo em Israel, nos anos recentes

Some of the factors that help to explain the Israeli success case on promoting high-tech start-ups backed by venture capital funds can be found in the risk-taking culture of the country, the vast technological know-how associated with the huge military development, the high offer of human intellectual capital due to the immigration processes, and finally also the FDI inflows, mainly from the United States. Even though, these factors would not have the same effects in the economy unless the right structures were founded by the public-private sectors partnerships for the high-tech industry development and the adaptation of the investment industry surpasses two of the deepest global financial crisis: the dot-com bubble in the 2000’s and the subprime in 2008

Uma crise à lá Minsky?: uma análise da crise financeira sob a ótica de Hyman Minsky

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)