Aplicação da teoria da confiabilidade em estacas escavadas de grande diâmetro para obtenção das superfícies resistentes de projeto

In this work, the author looks forward to develop a new method capable of incorporate the concepts of the Reliability Theory and Ruin Probability in Deep Foundations, in order to do a better quantification of the uncertainties, which is intrinsic in all geotechnical projects, meanly because we don't know all the properties of the materials that we work with. Using the methodologies of Decourt Quaresma and David Cabral, resistance surfaces have been developed utilizing the data achieved from the Standard Penetration Tests performed in the field of study, in conjecture with the loads defined in the executive project of the piles. The construction of resistance surfaces shows to be a very useful tool for decision making, no matter in which phase it is current on, projecting or execution. The surfaces were developed by Kriging (using the software Surfer® 12), making it easier to visualize the geotechnical profile of the field of study. Comparing the results, the conclusion was that a high safety factor doesn't mean higher security. It is fundamental to consider the loads and resistance of the piles in the whole field, carefully choosing the project methodology responsible to define the diameter and length of the piles

Inconsistencies of a purported probability current in the Duffin-Kemmer-Petiau theory

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Misclassification probability as obese or lean in hypercaloric and normocaloric diet

The aim of the present study was to determine the classification error probabilities, as lean or obese, in hypercaloric diet-induced obesity, which depends on the variable used to characterize animal obesity. In addition, the misclassification probabilities in animals submitted to normocaloric diet were also evaluated. Male Wistar rats were randomly distributed into two groups: normal diet (ND; n=3 1; 3,5 Kcal/g) and hypercaloric diet (HD; n=31; 4,6 Kcal/g). The ND group received commercial Labina rat feed and HD animals a cycle of five hypercaloric diets for a 14-week period. The variables analysed were body weight, body composition, body weight to length ratio, Lee index, body mass index and misclassification probability A 5% significance level was used. The hypercaloric pellet-diet cycle promoted increase of body weight, carcass fat, body weight to length ratio and Lee index. The total misclassification probabilities ranged from 19.21 % to 40.91 %. In Conclusion, the results of this experiment show that rnisclassification probabilities Occur when dietary manipulation is used to promote obesity in animals. This misjudgement ranges from 19.49% to 40.52% in hypercaloric diet and 18.94% to 41.30% in normocaloric diet.

Prediction and probability of neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia using multiple ultrasound parameters

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Theoretical estimates of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in larvae of Chrysomya putoria (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

An indirect estimate of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in a blowfly species, Chrysomya putoria, is presented. This alternative procedure combines three distinct models to estimate consumable food in the context of the exploitative competition experienced by immature individuals in blowfly populations. The relevant parameters are derived from data for pupal weight and survival and estimates of density-independent larval mortality in twenty different larval densities. As part of this procedure, the probability of acquiring food per unit of time and the time taken to exhaust the food supply are also calculated. The procedure employed here may be valuable for estimations in insects whose immature stages develop inside the food substrate, where it is difficult to partial out confounding effects such as separation of faeces. This procedure also has the advantage of taking into account the population dynamics of immatures living under crowded conditions, which are particularly characteristic of blowflies and other insects as well.

Variational supersymmetric approach to evaluate Fokker-Planck probability

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Survival probability of large rapidity gaps in a QCD model with a dynamical infrared mass scale

We compute the survival probability {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} of large rapidity gaps (LRG) in a QCD based eikonal model with a dynamical gluon mass, where this dynamical infrared mass scale represents the onset of nonperturbative contributions to the diffractive hadron-hadron scattering. Since rapidity gaps can occur in the case of Higgs boson production via fusion of electroweak bosons, we focus on WW -> H fusion processes and show that the resulting {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} decreases with the increase of the energy of the incoming hadrons; in line with the available experimental data for LRG. We obtain {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} = 27.6 +/- 7.8% (18.2 +/- 17.0%) at Tevatron (CERN-LHC) energy for a dynamical gluon mass m(g) = 400 MeV. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic evaluation of the probability of pregnancy at 14 months for Nellore heifers

To estimate the heritability for the probability that yearling heifers would become pregnant, we analyzed the records of 11,487 Nellore animals that participated in breeding seasons at three farms in the Brazilian states of São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. All heifers were exposed to a bull at the age of about 14 mo. The probability of pregnancy was analyzed as a categorical trait, with a value of 1 (success) assigned to heifers that were diagnosed pregnant by rectal palpation about 60 d after the end of the breeding season of 90 d and a value of 0 (failure) assigned to those that were not pregnant at that time. The estimate of heritability, obtained by Method 9, was 0.57 with standard error of 0.01. The EPD was predicted using a maximum a posteriori threshold method and was expressed as deviations from 50% probability. The range in EPD was -24.50 to 24.55%, with a mean of 0.78% and a SD of 7.46%. We conclude that EPD for probability of pregnancy can be used to select heifers with a higher probability of being fertile. However, it is mainly recommended for the selection of bulls for the production of precocious daughters because the accuracy of prediction is higher for bulls, depending on their number of daughters.

Analytical and Monte Carlo approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties-and, in some cases, rewards-that introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the maximum continuous interruption duration (MCID) per customer.This parameter is responsible for the majority of penalties in many electric distribution utilities. This paper describes analytical and Monte Carlo simulation approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration indices. More emphasis will be given to the development of an analytical method to assess the probability distribution associated with the parameter MCID and the correspond ng penalties. Case studies on a simple distribution network and on a real Brazilian distribution system are presented and discussed.

Modelling frequency distributions of 5 minute-averaged solar radiation indexes using Beta probability functions

Five minute-averaged values of sky clearness, direct and diffuse indices, were used to model the frequency distributions of these variables in terms of optical air mass. From more than four years of solar radiation observations it was found that variations in the frequency distributions of the three indices of optical air mass for Botucatu, Brazil, are similar to those in other places, as published in the literature. The proposed models were obtained by linear combination of normalized Beta probability functions, using the observed distributions derived from three years of data. The versatility of these functions allows modelling of all three irradiance indexes to similar levels of accuracy. A comparison with the observed distributions obtained from one year of observations indicate that the models are able to reproduce the observed frequency distributions of all three indices at the 95% confidence level.

Discrete coherent states and probability distributions in finite-dimensional spaces

Operator bases are discussed in connection with the construction of phase space representatives of operators in finite-dimensional spaces, and their properties are presented. It is also shown how these operator bases allow for the construction of a finite harmonic oscillator-like coherent state. Creation and annihilation operators for the Fock finite-dimensional space are discussed and their expressions in terms of the operator bases are explicitly written. The relevant finite-dimensional probability distributions are obtained and their limiting behavior for an infinite-dimensional space are calculated which agree with the well known results. (C) 1996 Academic Press, Inc.

Probability distribution models for daily rainfall data for an interior station of Brazil

Two stochastic models have been fitted to daily rainfall data for an interior station of Brazil. Of these two models, the results show a better fit to describe the data, by truncated negative probability model in comparison with Markov chain probability model. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is applied for significance for these models. © 1983 Springer-Verlag.

Analysis of culling probability in dairy buffalo using survival models

In order to contribute to the genetic breeding programs of buffaloes, this study aimed to determine the influence of environmental effects on the stayability (ST) of dairy female Murrah buffalo in the herd. Data from 1016 buffaloes were used. ST was defined as the ability of the female to remain in the herd for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 years after the first calving. Environmental effects were studied by survival analysis, adjusted to the fixed effects of farm, year and season of birth, class of first-lactation milk yield and age at first calving. The data were analyzed using the LIFEREG procedure of the SAS program that fits parametric models to failure time data (culling or ST = 0), and estimates parameters by maximum likelihood estimation. Breeding farm, year of birth and first-lactation milk yield significantly influenced (P < 0.0001) the ST to the specific ages (1 to 6 years after the first calving). Buffaloes that were older at first calving presented higher probabilities of being culled 1 year after the first calving, without any effect on culling at older ages. Buffaloes with a higher milk yield at first calving presented a lower culling probability and remained for a longer period of time in the herd. The effects of breeding farm, year of birth and first-lactation milk yield should be included in models used for the analysis of ST in buffaloes. Copyright © The Animal Consortium 2010.

Probability of remission of juvenile idiopathic arthritis following treatment with steroid joint injection

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

One step forward: contrasting the effects of Toe clipping and PIT tagging on frog survival and recapture probability

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)