Optimal Reactive Power Planning Using Risk Analysis

In this paper, the optimal reactive power planning problem under risk is presented. The classical mixed-integer nonlinear model for reactive power planning is expanded into two stage stochastic model considering risk. This new model considers uncertainty on the demand load. The risk is quantified by a factor introduced into the objective function and is identified as the variance of the random variables. Finally numerical results illustrate the performance of the proposed model, that is applied to IEEE 30-bus test system to determine optimal amount and location for reactive power expansion.

Semiparametric modeling of the spatial distribution of occupational accident risk in the casual labor market, Piracicaba, southeast Brazil

The objective of this study was to estimate the spatial distribution of work accident risk in the informal work market in the urban zone of an industrialized city in southeast Brazil and to examine concomitant effects of age, gender, and type of occupation after controlling for spatial risk variation. The basic methodology adopted was that of a population-based case-control study with particular interest focused on the spatial location of work. Cases were all casual workers in the city suffering work accidents during a one-year period; controls were selected from the source population of casual laborers by systematic random sampling of urban homes. The spatial distribution of work accidents was estimated via a semiparametric generalized additive model with a nonparametric bidimensional spline of the geographical coordinates of cases and controls as the nonlinear spatial component, and including age, gender, and occupation as linear predictive variables in the parametric component. We analyzed 1,918 cases and 2,245 controls between 1/11/2003 and 31/10/2004 in Piracicaba, Brazil. Areas of significantly high and low accident risk were identified in relation to mean risk in the study region (p < 0.01). Work accident risk for informal workers varied significantly in the study area. Significant age, gender, and occupational group effects on accident risk were identified after correcting for this spatial variation. A good understanding of high-risk groups and high-risk regions underpins the formulation of hypotheses concerning accident causality and the development of effective public accident prevention policies.

Mortality Risk in Insects

Understanding how and why insect numbers fluctuate through time and space has been a central theme in ecological research for more than a century. Life tables have been used to understand temporal and spatial patterns in insect numbers. In this study, we estimated cause-of-death probabilities for phytophagous insects using multiple decrement life tables and the irreplaceable mortality analytic technique. Multiple decrement life tables were created from 73 insect life tables published from 1954 to 2004. Irreplaceable mortality (the portion of mortality that cannot be replaced by another cause) from pathogens, predators, and parasitoids was 8.6 +/- 7.2, 7.8 +/- 4.9, and 6.2 +/- 1.6%, respectively. In contrast, the mean irreplaceable mortality from all non-natural enemy mortality factors (mortality from factors other than natural enemies) was 35.1 +/- 4.4%. Irreplaceable mortality from natural enemies was significantly lower compared with non-natural enemy factors. Our results may partially explain cases of unsuccessful efficacy in classical biological control, after successful establishment, by showing low irreplaceable mortality for natural enemies, including 5.2 +/- 1.6% for introduced natural enemies. We suggest that the environment (i.e., the degree of environmental stability) influences the magnitude of the irreplaceable mortality from natural enemies. Our results lead to several testable hypotheses and emphasize that it is not possible to estimate the effect of any mortality factor without considering its interaction with competing mortality factors, which has far-reaching consequences for population biology and applied ecology.

Mapping soil pollution by spatial analysis and fuzzy classification

Spatial analysis and fuzzy classification techniques were used to estimate the spatial distributions of heavy metals in soil. The work was applied to soils in a coastal region that is characterized by intense urban occupation and large numbers of different industries. Concentrations of heavy metals were determined using geostatistical techniques and classes of risk were defined using fuzzy classification. The resulting prediction mappings identify the locations of high concentrations of Pb, Zn, Ni, and Cu in topsoils of the study area. The maps show that areas of high pollution of Ni and Cu are located at the northeast, where there is a predominance of industrial and agricultural activities; Pb and Zn also occur in high concentrations in the northeast, but the maps also show significant concentrations of Pb and Zn in other areas, mainly in the central and southeastern parts, where there are urban leisure activities and trade centers. Maps were also prepared showing levels of pollution risk. These maps show that (1) Cu presents a large pollution risk in the north-northwest, midwest, and southeast sectors, (2) Pb represents a moderate risk in most areas, (3) Zn generally exhibits low risk, and (4) Ni represents either low risk or no risk in the studied area. This study shows that combining geostatistics with fuzzy theory can provide results that offer insight into risk assessment for environmental pollution.

Abordaje práctico sobre cómo mejorar el bienestar en los bovinos

Current challenges of humanity require a new paradigm for animal production, and invest time and attention to the development of new production techniques that take into account the principles of sustainability and animal welfare science. To do this, we must be committed to promoting animal welfare and health, ensure environmental sustainability, consumer satisfaction and profitability for producers. To change our relationship with animals there is no need for changes in market conditions or large investments, it is enough to know better the needs of the animals we raise, the management system adapted to its characteristics. Even in the most favorable management conditions, on farms that have technological resources and trained personnel, there is much to change, especially in the daily management of the animals. Some of the risks more evident in the traditional systems of beef production are: problems during parturition, morbidity and mortality of calves, lack of shade in the pastures, improper handling of animals, risk of injury, inadequate infrastructure, poor management practices during routine processing (marking, castration, vaccination, dehorning), poor welfare during loading, transport, unloading and slaughter. To remedy this, you can adopt good management practices, which have been shown to reduce risk and improve the welfare of cattle in different stages of the production chain. The objective of this review is to show some of the risks that reduce the welfare of cattle and examples of how the adoption of best management practices impact on improving the productivity of these production systems. Finally, some indicators for assessing welfare in production systems are shown.

Power flow for primary distribution networks considering uncertainty in demand and user connection

This paper presents a method for calculating the power flow in distribution networks considering uncertainties in the distribution system. Active and reactive power are used as uncertain variables and probabilistically modeled through probability distribution functions. Uncertainty about the connection of the users with the different feeders is also considered. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate the possible load scenarios of the users. The results of the power flow considering uncertainty are the mean values and standard deviations of the variables of interest (voltages in all nodes, active and reactive power flows, etc.), giving the user valuable information about how the network will behave under uncertainty rather than the traditional fixed values at one point in time. The method is tested using real data from a primary feeder system, and results are presented considering uncertainty in demand and also in the connection. To demonstrate the usefulness of the approach, the results are then used in a probabilistic risk analysis to identify potential problems of undervoltage in distribution systems. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HACCP plan proposal for a typical Brazilian peanut processing company

Peanuts are likely to be infested by fungi with consequent contamination by aflatoxin in post-harvest industries. A hazard analysis critical control point (HACCP) plan is proposed for a typical Brazilian post-harvest industry from raw in-shell reception to the unpeeled peanuts transportation. Codex Alimentarius Commission guidelines were followed, with four critical control points (CCP) for aflatoxin being identified. The process steps with highest probability of aflatoxin occurrence (risk) are the in-shell reception, the dried in-shell storage, and the unpeeled kernel storage. During the storage steps there is a lack of control of air moisture and temperature. Therefore, there is no option but to keep rigid monitoring and control over each CCP, and detour lots with high aflatoxin levels to either oil or seed production. Attempts to correlate the aflatoxin levels with the rainfall showed an irregular trend of the toxin level. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Análise de risco aplicada ao manejo precaucionário das pescarias artesanais na região do reservatório da UHE-Tucuruí (Pará, Brasil)

As pescarias no reservatório da UHE-Tucuruí no rio Tocantins, Pará, envolvem cerca de 6.000 pescadores e movimentam cerca de R$ 4,2 milhões/ano. A atividade se concentra em três espécies principais: tucunaré Cichla monoculus (capturado com anzol), pescada Plagioscion squamosissimus (capturado com rede e/ou anzol) e mapará Hypophthalmus marginatus (capturado com rede). Com o objetivo de caracterizar os pescadores e as pescarias do reservatório, criar cenários de aumento do esforço pesqueiro e prever os momentos de conflito pela escassez de recursos, foram levantadas informações da literatura e realizadas duas campanhas de coleta de dados nos anos de 1999 e 2000, envolvendo entrevistas com líderes comunitários e pescadores. As seguintes variáveis foram consideradas: desembarque por espécie-alvo (de acordo com os registros fornecidos pelas colônias de pescadores), artes de pesca, estratégias dos pescadores, conflitos e formas de apropriação do espaço e rendimentos da atividade. Estas variáveis foram inseridas em um modelo dinâmico, simulado no software Vensim PLE para um período de 10 anos a partir de 1999. Os resultados indicam que a pesca de anzol é a estratégia mais rentável, e que possíveis momentos de conflito devido à escassez de recursos podem acontecer em curto prazo (2005). A metodologia utilizada para as simulações e análises de risco também se revelou adequada à realidade local e ao conjunto de dados disponíveis.

Some constraints on the modeling using the uranium isotopes U-238 and U-234 for dating groundwaters from Guarany aquifer, South America

Groundwaters from the Guarany aquifer located at the South American continent and sampled at four wells with described geological sections in São Paulo State, Brazil, were chemically and isotopically analysed with two aims: to evaluate the quality of this important hydrological resource and to investigate the possibility of using the natural uranium isotopes U-234 and U-238 as a chronological tool, since the U-234/U-238 activity ratio and dissolved U content data in groundwater systems have generated models for dating purposes.

Riscos nucleares e outros riscos: avaliação e aceitabilidade

The risks of accidents, illness and early death are part of life on Earth, which touches all living creatures, including Mankind. Because of modern mass communication media, the emotional impact of current risks are greater than in the past. Many unnecessary risk can and should be avoided, and with respect to other they can be drastically reduced. In addition to this, some risks should be confronted in order to avoid greater ones. In any risk analysis, eventual benefits should be taken into consideration, the risks surrounding other activities and other factors. Some risks examples and their implications are presented and discussed, in general. Nuclear energy is specifically treated, but it also refers and comments that which surrounds other human activities (airplanes, automobiles, smog, gasoline, DDT, and coal energy). As in the history of aviation, nuclear industry has a history of greater successes than failures. Nonetheless, in both cases, serious accidents deserve deep thought, including the increment of security norms. The current fear of some people to nuclear energy is compared to the unfounded fear at the advent of gasoline last century. Risks, naturally, should not be exagerated, but they cannot be discarded. The main intention of the author is to discuss the complexity of the problem, and to see that risks are evaluated and accepted. In relation to nuclear energy, the author only mentions his point of view, defended in other publications, that it involves very high risks.

Aircraft accident in Brazil: Boeing vs. Legacy?

Air accidents represent a small proportion of the flights registered worldwide. Airplane collisions in the air are rare. In September of 2006, a Boeing 737-800 collided in midair with a Legacy Jet. It was the largest accident registered in the history of Brazilian aviation until that time. The present study explores aspects of press coverage of the accident. Data and information reported in the media about the accident from September 2006 to August 2007 were collected and discussed. Media coverage called attention to two unusual aspects: politicisation of the discussion, culminating in the opening of congressional inquiries, and equally the concomitance of police investigations interfering in the work of agencies responsible for the official accident investigation. Emphasis on assigning guilt and establishing penalties may close the windows of opportunity an accident had opened for discussions on the improvement of air safety. In Brazil, political imperatives and organizational pressures have interfered and the possibilities of organizational learning from the accident have been drastically curtailed.

Viral infections in workers in hospital and research laboratory settings: a comparative review of infection modes and respective biosafety aspects

Objectives: To compare modes and sources of infection and clinical and biosafety aspects of accidental viral infections in hospital workers and research laboratory staff reported in scientific articles. Methods: PubMed, Google Scholar, ISI Web of Knowledge, Scirus, and Scielo were searched (to December 2008) for reports of accidental viral infections, written in English, Portuguese, Spanish, or German; the authors' personal file of scientific articles and references from the articles retrieved in the initial search were also used. Systematic review was carried out with inclusion criteria of presence of accidental viral infection's cases information, and exclusion criteria of absence of information about the viral etiology, and at least probable mode of infection.Results: One hundred and forty-one scientific articles were obtained, 66 of which were included in the analysis. For arboviruses, 84% of the laboratory infections had aerosol as the source; for alphaviruses alone, aerosol exposure accounted for 94% of accidental infections. of laboratory arboviral infections, 15.7% were acquired percutaneously, whereas 41.6% of hospital infections were percutaneous. For airborne viruses, 81% of the infections occurred in laboratories, with hantavirus the leading causative agent. Aerosol inhalation was implicated in 96% of lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus infections, 99% of hantavirus infections, and 50% of coxsackievirus infections, but infective droplet inhalation was the leading mode of infection for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and the mucocutaneous mode of infection was involved in the case of infection with influenza B. For blood-borne viruses, 92% of infections occurred in hospitals and 93% of these had percutaneous mode of infection, while among laboratory infections 77% were due to infective aerosol inhalation. Among blood-borne virus infections there were six cases of particular note: three cases of acute hepatitis following hepatitis C virus infection with a short period of incubation, one laboratory case of human immunodeficiency virus infection through aerosol inhalation, one case of hepatitis following hepatitis G virus infection, and one case of fulminant hepatitis with hepatitis B virus infection following exposure of the worker's conjunctiva to hepatitis B virus e antigen-negative patient saliva. of the 12 infections with viruses with preferential mucocutaneous transmission, seven occurred percutaneously, aerosol was implicated as a possible source of infection in two cases, and one atypical infection with Macacine herpesvirus 1 with fatal encephalitis as the outcome occurred through a louse bite. One outbreak of norovirus infection among hospital staff had as its probable mode of infection the ingestion of inocula spread in the environment by fomites.Conclusions: The currently accepted and practiced risk analysis of accidental viral infections based on the conventional dynamics of infection of the etiological agents is insufficient to cope with accidental viral infections in laboratories and to a lesser extent in hospitals, where unconventional modes of infection are less frequently present but still have relevant clinical and potential epidemiological consequences. Unconventional modes of infection, atypical clinical development, or extremely severe cases are frequently present together with high viral loads and high virulence of the agents manipulated in laboratories. In hospitals by contrast, the only possible association of atypical cases is with the individual resistance of the worker. Current standard precaution practices are insufficient to prevent most of the unconventional infections in hospitals analyzed in this study; it is recommended that special attention be given to flaviviruses in these settings. (C) 2011 International Society for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Riscos nucleares e outros riscos: Avaliação e aceitabilidade

The risks of accidents, illness and early death are part of life on Earth, which touches all living creatures, including Mankind. Because of modern mass communication media, the emotional impact of current risks are greater than in the past. Many unnecessary risks can and should be avoided, and with respect to others, they can be drastically reduced. In addition to this, some risks should be confronted in order to avoid greater ones. In any risk analysis, eventual benefits should be taken into consideration, the risks surrounding other activities, and other factors. Some risks examples and their implications are presented and discussed, in general Nuclear energy is specifically treated, but it also refers and comments that which surrounds other human activities (airplanes, automobiles, smog, gasoline, DDT, and coal energy). As in the history of aviation, nuclear industry has a history of greater successes than failures Nonetheless, in both cases, serious accidents deserve deep thought, including the increment of security norms. The current fear of some people to nuclear energy is compared to the unfounded fear at the advent of gasoline last century Risks, naturally, should not be exagerated, but they cannot be discarded. The main intention of the author is to discuss the complexity of the problem, and to see that risks are evaluated and accepted. In relation to nuclear energy, the author only mentions his point of view, defended in other publications, that it involves very high risks.

Hydrochemistry on a waste disposal area of sand mining activities at Analandia, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, and their implications on the mobilization of uranium

Groundwaters and surface waters from an area of treatment of sand for industrial purposes at Analandia municipality, nearly in the center of Sao Paulo State, Brazil, were chemically and isotopically analyzed with two aims: to evaluate if the anthropogenic activities that has taken place for the last 6 years is affecting the quality of the hydrological resources and to relate the hydrogeochemical behaviour of the uranium isotopes 234U and 238U with the pattern of circulation of groundwaters.

The effects of soil pollution and its relation with morbidity in shoreline areas

Soil and subsoil pollution is not only significant in terms of environmental loss, but also a matter of environmental and public health. Solid, liquid and gaseous residues are the major soil contamination agents. They originate from urban conglomerates and industrial areas in which it is impossible to emphasize the chemical, petrochemical and textile industry; thermoelectric, mining, and ironmaster activities. The contamination process can thus be defined as a compound addition to soil, from what qualitative and or quantitative manners can modify soil's natural characteristics and use, producing baneful and deteriorative effects on human health. Studies have shown that human exposition to high concentration of some heavy metals found on soil can cause serious health problems, such as pulmonary or kidney complications, liver and nervous system harm, allergy, and the chronic exposition that leads to death. The present study searches for the correlation among soil contamination, done through a geochemical baseline survey of an industrial contamination area on the shoreline of Sao Paulo state. The study will be conducted by spatial analysis using Geographical Information Systems for mapping and regression analysis. The used data are 123 soil samples of percentage concentration of heavy metals. They were sampled and spatially distributed by geostatistics methods. To verify if there is a relation between heavy metals soil pollution and morbidity an executed correlation and regression analysis will be done using the pollution registers as the independent variables and morbidity as dependable variables. It is expected, by the end of the study, to identify the areas relation between heavy metals soil pollution and morbidity, moreover to be able to provide assistance in terms of new methodologies that could facilitate soil pollution control programs and public health planning. © 2010 WIT Press.