Establishing the risk of neonatal mortality using a fuzzy predictive model

O objetivo do artigo foi avaliar o uso da lógica fuzzy para estimar possibilidade de óbito neonatal. Desenvolveu-se um modelo computacional com base na teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy, tendo como variáveis peso ao nascer, idade gestacional, escore de Apgar e relato de natimorto. Empregou-se o método de inferência de Mamdani, e a variável de saída foi o risco de morte neonatal. Criaram-se 24 regras de acordo com as variáveis de entrada, e a validação do modelo utilizou um banco de dados real de uma cidade brasileira. A acurácia foi estimada pela curva ROC; os riscos foram comparados pelo teste t de Student. O programa MATLAB 6.5 foi usado para construir o modelo. Os riscos médios foram menores para os que sobreviveram (p < 0,001). A acurácia do modelo foi 0,90. A maior acurácia foi com possibilidade de risco igual ou menor que 25% (sensibilidade = 0,70, especificidade = 0,98, valor preditivo negativo = 0,99 e valor preditivo positivo = 0,22). O modelo mostrou acurácia e valor preditivo negativo bons, podendo ser utilizado em hospitais gerais.

Temperature and concentration dependence of heat capacity of model aqueous solutions

Heat capacities of binary aqueous solutions of different concentrations of sucrose, glucose, fructose, citric acid, malic acid, and inorganic salts were measured with a differential scanning calorimeter in the temperature range from 5degreesC to 65degreesC. Heat capacity increased with increasing water content and increasing temperature. At low concentrations, heat capacity approached that of pure water, with a less pronounced effect of temperature, and similar abnormal behavior of pure water with a minimum around 30degreesC-40degreesC. Literature data, when available agreed relatively well with experimental values. A correction factor, based on the assumption of chemical equilibrium between liquid and gas phase in the Differential Scanning Calorimeter, was proposed to correct for the water evaporation due to temperature rise. Experimental data were fitted to predictive models. Excess molar heat capacity was calculated using the Redlich-Kister equation to represent the deviation from the additive ideal model.

Temperature and concentration dependence of density of model liquid foods

Density of binary solutions and combinations of sucrose, glucose, fructose, citric acid, malic acid, pectin, and inorganic salts were measured with an oscillating tube density meter in the temperature range from 10degrees to 60degreesC, at varying concentrations. Density can be predicted with accuracy better than 5 x 10(-5) g cm(-3) using predictive equations obtained by fitting the experimental data. Available literature values agreed well with experimental data. Relations for the excess molar volume of these solutions were derived in terms of mole fraction and temperature. A thermodynamic model for the volumetric analysis of multicomponent aqueous solutions containing electrolyte and non-electrolyte compounds was also proposed. These models can be used for prediction of density of liquid food systems, specially fruit juices and beverages, based on composition and temperature, with high accuracy and without elaborate experimental work.

Fine root isotropy in Eucalyptus grandis plantations. Towards the prediction of root length densities from root counts on trench walls

The objectives of the study were to assess changes in fine root anisotropy and specific root lengths throughout the development of Eucalyptus grandis ( W. Hill ex Maiden) plantations and to establish a predictive model of root length density (RLD) from root intercept counts on trench walls. Fine root densities (<1 mm in diameter) were studied in 6-, 12-, 22-, 28-, 54-, 68- and 72-month-old E. grandis plantations established on deep Ferralsols in southern Brazil. Fine root intercepts were counted on 3 faces of 90-198 soil cubes (1 dm(3) in volume) in each stand and fine root lengths (L) were measured inside 576 soil cubes, sampled between the depths of 10 cm and 290 cm. The number of fine root intercepts was counted on one vertical face perpendicular to the planting row (N(t)), one vertical face parallel to the planting row (N(l)) and one horizontal face (N(h)), for each soil cube sampled. An overall isotropy of fine roots was shown by paired Student's t-tests between the numbers of fine roots intersecting each face of soil cubes at most stand ages and soil depths. Specific root lengths decreased with stand age in the upper soil layers and tended to increase in deep soil layers at the end of the rotation. A linear regression established between N(t) and L for all the soil cubes sampled accounted for 36% of the variability of L. Such a regression computed for mean Nt and L values at each sampling depth and stand age explained only 55% of the variability, as a result of large differences in the relationship between L and Nt depending on stand productivity. The equation RLD=1.89*LAI*N(t), where LAI was the stand leaf area index (m(2) m(-2)) and Nt was expressed as the number of root intercepts per cm(2), made it possible to predict accurately (R(2)=0.84) and without bias the mean RLDs (cm cm(-3)) per depth in each stand, for the whole data set of 576 soil cubes sampled between 2 years of age and the end of the rotation.

The Incremental Shuttle Walk Test in Older Brazilian Adults

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Caracterização da cobertura vegetal na equação universal de perda de solos (fator C) por meio de geotecnologias

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Caracterização da erosão hídrica laminar do solo em bacia hidrográfica com base na malha fundiária, por meio de sensoriamento remoto, geoprocessamento e modelagem

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estimando o desfecho no recém-nascido grave através da Lógica Fuzzy

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estimativa espaço-temporal da superfície potenciométrica do sistema aqüífero guarani na cidade de Ribeirão Preto (SP), Brasil

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

Análise diagnóstica de indicadores de erosão do solo na bacia hidrográfica do Córrego João Dias, Aquidauana/MS

Pós-graduação em Geografia - IGCE

Contribuição dos impactos na saúde bucal e de variáveis sociodemográficas e clínicas na qualidade de vida relacionada à saúde

Pós-graduação em Reabilitação Oral - FOAR

Avaliação da erosão hídrica, transporte de sedimentos e qualidade da água na bacia do córrego Monjolo Grande

Understanding the linkages between the natural elements is essential for being promoted the land use, occupation and sustainable management of environmental systems. Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), as a predictive model of erosion, is important to allowing the prevention of possible environmental impacts which may drastically interfere in natural or anthropic environments, as well as prevent potential financial wastes and even contribute to greater efficiency of agricultural production. This research will be working some USLE parameters, emphasizing topographic factor from Ribeirão Monjolo Grande watershed. Among the factors considered by the USLE, the Topographic Factor interferes directly in the erosive dynamic of a watershed because it involves variables related to hydrological processes that occur on it. In this research, were discussed different methods for obtaining the Topographic Factor (BERTONI e LOMBARDI NETO, 1985; MOORE e BURCH, 1986; DESMET E GOVERS, 1996) in GIS environment. After comparison between the methods, was indicated that best represents the conditions of geometry strand of the study area. Finally, other factors (R, K, C, P) considered by the USLE were obtained. The attainment of these parameters were guided by the use of geotechnologies, especially in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), with the assistance of secondary data and periodic field visits. The results obtained contributed to the understanding of hydrosedimentological dynamic in this area and serve as a viable strategy for studies of soil loss, aiming at developing consistent material for future researches about environmental planning and land management

Estimativa da erosão na microbacia do Córrego do Gambá no município de Monte Alto, SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Ciência do Solo) - FCAV

Utilização de dados fornecidos por satélites para determinação de riscos ambientais

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Avaliação da erosão hídrica por meio da Equação Universal de Perda de Solo Modificada (MEUPS) na bacia hidrográfica do Ribeirão Jacutinga, Rio Claro (SP)

Water erosion is one of the main processes responsible for soil degradation, resulting in loss of parcels of land suitable for agriculture, to the loss of agricultural inputs and the resulting drift of pesticides and excess sediment to rivers, causing phenomena such as the siltation and eutrophication of water bodies. Such a scenario makes it necessary to perform work of a technical and scientific to provide subsidies to land-use planning, in order to protect natural resources biotic and abiotic. To develop this work is necessary to find a unit of analysis capable of integrating the different elements of the landscape, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere and lithosphere. Therefore we adopt for this work the watershed as main unit studies. From this question, this project will focus on the assessment of surface water erosion through MEUPS (Equation Modified Universal Soil Loss) predictive model. With the aid of maps, remote sensing products, and the use of geotechnology, this study aims to evaluate for the for Natural Erosion Potential the basin of the Jacutinga river, located in Rio Claro - SP