4 resultados para predictive density
em Repositório Institucional UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Julio de Mesquita Filho"
Resumo:
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to present designs for an accelerated life test (ALT). Design/methodology/approach - Bayesian methods and simulation Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) methods were used. Findings - In the paper a Bayesian method based on MCMC for ALT under EW distribution (for life time) and Arrhenius models (relating the stress variable and parameters) was proposed. The paper can conclude that it is a reasonable alternative to the classical statistical methods since the implementation of the proposed method is simple, not requiring advanced computational understanding and inferences on the parameters can be made easily. By the predictive density of a future observation, a procedure was developed to plan ALT and also to verify if the conformance fraction of the manufactured process reaches some desired level of quality. This procedure is useful for statistical process control in many industrial applications. Research limitations/implications - The results may be applied in a semiconductor manufacturer. Originality/value - The Exponentiated-Weibull-Arrhenius model has never before been used to plan an ALT. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
Resumo:
This paper addresses the investment decisions considering the presence of financial constraints of 373 large Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using panel data. A Bayesian econometric model was used considering ridge regression for multicollinearity problems among the variables in the model. Prior distributions are assumed for the parameters, classifying the model into random or fixed effects. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters, considering normal and Student t distributions for the error and assumed that the initial values for the lagged dependent variable are not fixed, but generated by a random process. The recursive predictive density criterion was used for model comparisons. Twenty models were tested and the results indicated that multicollinearity does influence the value of the estimated parameters. Controlling for capital intensity, financial constraints are found to be more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.
Resumo:
To study the role played by acetate metabolism during high-cell-density growth of Escherichia coli cells, we constructed isogenic null mutants of strain W3100 deficient for several genes involved either in acetate metabolism or the transition to stationary phase. We grew these strains under identical fed-batch conditions to the highest cell densities achievable in 8 h using a predictive-plus-feedback-controlled computer algorithm that maintained glucose at a set-point of 0.5 g/l, as previously described. Wild-type strains, as well as mutants lacking the sigma(s) subunit of RNA polymerase (rpoS), grew reproducibly to high cell densities (44-50 g/l dry cell weights, DCWs). In contrast, a strain lacking acetate kinase (ackA) failed to reach densities greater than 8 g/l. Strains lacking other acetate metabolism genes (pta, acs, poxB, iciR, and fadR) achieved only medium cell densities (15-21 g/l DCWs). Complementation of either the acs or the ackA mutant restored wild-type high-cell-density growth, on a dry weight basis, poxB and fadR strains produced approximately threefold more acetate than did the wild-type strain. In contrast, the pta, acs, or rpoS strains produced significantly less acetate per cell dry weight than did the wild-type strain. Our results show that acetate metabolism plays a critical role during growth of E. coli cultures to high cell densities. They also demonstrate that cells do not require the sigma(s) regulon to grow to high cell densities, at least not under the conditions tested.
Resumo:
Density of binary solutions and combinations of sucrose, glucose, fructose, citric acid, malic acid, pectin, and inorganic salts were measured with an oscillating tube density meter in the temperature range from 10degrees to 60degreesC, at varying concentrations. Density can be predicted with accuracy better than 5 x 10(-5) g cm(-3) using predictive equations obtained by fitting the experimental data. Available literature values agreed well with experimental data. Relations for the excess molar volume of these solutions were derived in terms of mole fraction and temperature. A thermodynamic model for the volumetric analysis of multicomponent aqueous solutions containing electrolyte and non-electrolyte compounds was also proposed. These models can be used for prediction of density of liquid food systems, specially fruit juices and beverages, based on composition and temperature, with high accuracy and without elaborate experimental work.