Are large-scale distributional shifts of the blue-winged macaw (Primolius maracana) related to climate change?

Aim To evaluate whether observed geographical shifts in the distribution of the blue-winged macaw (Primolius maracana) are related to ongoing processes of global climate change. This species is vulnerable to extinction and has shown striking range retractions in recent decades, withdrawing broadly from southern portions of its historical distribution. Its range reduction has generally been attributed to the effects of habitat loss; however, as this species has also disappeared from large forested areas, consideration of other factors that may act in concert is merited.Location Historical distribution of the blue-winged macaw in Brazil, eastern Paraguay and northern Argentina.Methods We used a correlative approach to test a hypothesis of causation of observed shifts by reduction of habitable areas mediated by climate change. We developed models of the ecological niche requirements of the blue-winged macaw, based on point-occurrence data and climate scenarios for pre-1950 and post-1950 periods, and tested model predictivity for anticipating geographical distributions within time periods. Then we projected each model to the other time period and compared distributions predicted under both climate scenarios to assess shifts of habitable areas across decades and to evaluate an explanation for observed range retractions.Results Differences between predicted distributions of the blue-winged macaw over the twentieth century were, in general, minor and no change in suitability of landscapes was predicted across large areas of the species' original range in different time periods. No tendency towards range retraction in the south was predicted, rather conditions in the southern part of the species' range tended to show improvement for the species.Main conclusions Our test permitted elimination of climate change as a likely explanation for the observed shifts in the distribution of the blue-winged macaw, and points rather to other causal explanations (e.g. changing regional land use, emerging diseases).

Impacts of Climate Change and the End of Deforestation on Land Use in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A new probabilistic canopy dynamics model (SLCD) that is suitable for evergreen and deciduous forest ecosystems

There are strong uncertainties regarding LAI dynamics in forest ecosystems in response to climate change. While empirical growth & yield models (G&YMs) provide good estimations of tree growth at the stand level on a yearly to decennial scale, process-based models (PBMs) use LAI dynamics as a key variable for enabling the accurate prediction of tree growth over short time scales. Bridging the gap between PBMs and G&YMs could improve the prediction of forest growth and, therefore, carbon, water and nutrient fluxes by combining modeling approaches at the stand level.Our study aimed to estimate monthly changes of leaf area in response to climate variations from sparse measurements of foliage area and biomass. A leaf population probabilistic model (SLCD) was designed to simulate foliage renewal. The leaf population was distributed in monthly cohorts, and the total population size was limited depending on forest age and productivity. Foliage dynamics were driven by a foliation function and the probabilities ruling leaf aging or fall. Their formulation depends on the forest environment.The model was applied to three tree species growing under contrasting climates and soil types. In tropical Brazilian evergreen broadleaf eucalypt plantations, the phenology was described using 8 parameters. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm method (MOEA) was used to fit the model parameters on litterfall and LAI data over an entire stand rotation. Field measurements from a second eucalypt stand were used to validate the model. Seasonal LAI changes were accurately rendered for both sites (R-2 = 0.898 adjustment, R-2 = 0.698 validation). Litterfall production was correctly simulated (R-2 = 0.562, R-2 = 0.4018 validation) and may be improved by using additional validation data in future work. In two French temperate deciduous forests (beech and oak), we adapted phenological sub-modules of the CASTANEA model to simulate canopy dynamics, and SLCD was validated using LAI measurements. The phenological patterns were simulated with good accuracy in the two cases studied. However, IA/max was not accurately simulated in the beech forest, and further improvement is required.Our probabilistic approach is expected to contribute to improving predictions of LAI dynamics. The model formalism is general and suitable to broadleaf forests for a large range of ecological conditions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

“Eco-innovations in more sustainable supply chains for a low-carbon economy: A multiple case study of human critical success factors in Brazilian leading companies”

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Auditory stimulation with music influences the geometric indices of heart rate variability in response to the postural change maneuver

It is poor in the literature the behavior of the geometric indices of heart rate variability (HRV) during the musical auditory stimulation. The objective is to investigate the acute effects of classic musical auditory stimulation on the geometric indexes of HRV in women in response to the postural change maneuver (PCM). We evaluated 11 healthy women between 18 and 25 years old. We analyzed the following indices: Triangular index, Triangular interpolation of RR intervals and Poincar plot (standard deviation of the instantaneous variability of the beat-to beat heart rate [SD1], standard deviation of long-term continuous RR interval variability and Ratio between the short - and long-term variations of RR intervals [SD1/SD2] ratio). HRV was recorded at seated rest for 10 min. The women quickly stood up from a seated position in up to 3 s and remained standing still for 15 min. HRV was recorded at the following periods: Rest, 0-5 min, 5-10 min and 10-15 min during standing. In the second protocol, the subject was exposed to auditory musical stimulation (Pachelbel-Canon in D) for 10 min at seated position before standing position. Shapiro-Wilk to verify normality of data and ANOVA for repeated measures followed by the Bonferroni test for parametric variables and Friedmans followed by the Dunns posttest for non-parametric distributions. In the first protocol, all indices were reduced at 10-15 min after the volunteers stood up. In the protocol musical auditory stimulation, the SD1 index was reduced at 5-10 min after the volunteers stood up compared with the music period. The SD1/SD2 ratio was decreased at control and music period compared with 5-10 min after the volunteers stood up. Musical auditory stimulation attenuates the cardiac autonomic responses to the PCM.

Fractal correlation property of heart rate variability in response to the postural change maneuver in healthy women

Background: We evaluated the effects of the PCM on the fractal analysis of the HRV in healthy women Method: We evaluated healthy women between 18 and 30 years old. HRV was analyzed in the time (SDNN, RMSSD, NN50 and pNN50) and frequency (LF, HF and LF/HF ratio) domains as well as short and long-term fractal exponents (alpha-1 and alpha-2) of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). HRV was recorded at rest for ten minutes at seated rest and then the women quickly stood up from a seated position in up to three seconds and remained standing for 15 minutes. HRV was recorded at the following time: rest, 0–5 min, 5–10 min and 10–15 min during standing. Results: We observed decrease (p < 0.05) in the time-domain indices of HRV between seated and 10–15 minutes after the volunteer stood up. The LF (ms2) and HF (ms2) indices were also reduced (p < 0.05) at 10–15 minutes after the volunteer stood up compared to seated while the LF (nu) was increased at 5–10 min and 10–15 min (p < 0.05). The short-term alpha-1 exponent was increased (p < 0.05) at all moments investigated compared to seated. Increase in the properties of short-term fractal correlations of heart rate dynamics accompanied by a decrease in the parasympathetic modulation and global HRV was observed in response to the postural change maneuver. Conclusion: We suggest that fractal analysis of HRV is more sensitive than frequency and time-domain analysis of HRV during the postural change maneuver.