11 resultados para pessimistic

em Repositório Institucional UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Julio de Mesquita Filho"


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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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This paper explains why the reliability assessment of energy limited systems requires more detailed models for primary generating resources availability, internal and external generating dispatch and customer demand than the ones commonly used for large power systems and presents a methodology based on the full sequential Montecarlo simulation technique with AC power flow for their long term reliability assessment which can properly include these detailed models. By means of a real example, it is shown how the simplified modeling traditionally used for large power systems leads to pessimistic predictions if it is applied to an energy limited system and also that it cannot predict all the load point adequacy problems. © 2006 IEEE.

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Pós-graduação em Filosofia - FFC

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

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The violence staged by young people has often been subjected to scientific analysis. The way youths speak, in their role as aggressors or as victims, is examined to determine how they experience violence in a number of different spheres. Repeated group interviews are used to analyze how violence is explained and depicted within the family, at school and in the neighbourhood by two groups of young people (14-17 years old) attending the same school on the outskirts of Rio Claro, Sao Paulo, Brazil. One of the groups involved is identified by the school as violent, and the other, as non-violent. Discourse analysis leads to two conclusions. First, the different contexts of violence infuse a mistrust of institutions, the environment and personal relationships into the subjects' experience, forming a fabric that clouds future prospects. Second, the group of youths identified as violent have a more simplistic, pessimistic view of reality: They see the world in black and white, and they lay no stock in the possibility that violence can be avoided. Consequently, they use violence and understand violence as a defensive strategy that gives one identity. On the other hand, the group identified as nonviolent feels it possible to intervene in situations with nonviolent tools like words. For the young subjects, violence is a context that they assume; it cancels their ability to identify rules and institutions, but it does not generate an effective interaction strategy. Violence causes their social microcontext (in which action prevails over meaning or meaning equals action) to assume overblown dimensions. Any intervention strategy must take into account this indissoluble unity between meaning and action.

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The modernist poet Emílio Moura (1902-1971) incorporates a strictly modern language regarding the imagistic suggesting a mainly poetry metalinguistic. That way, from the works Canto da hora amarga (1932) and Cancioneiro (1944) we attest, through the poetic analysis, that modernity Moura’s poetry takes place in confluences with ideas ranging from biblical tradition and come to the depersonalization of the modern I and questing. We objectify, therefore, demonstrate and explore the metalinguistic and intertextual character that results in the personification of poetry, as clarified muse. To achieve this, this same poetry undergoes a dualistic and pessimistic sentiment, baroque, the I that is divided into life and death, light and shadow; goes through a romantic feeling of anguish and desolation and reaches the multiplicity of the poetic speaker, which promotes a constant struggle with the language. More than draw a correlation between classical and modern ideas (in the sense that the poet creates depersonalization and appropriates of free, short prose or verse, typical of modernism), intend to supply, at least in part, the dearth of studies on the miner poet who has found fertile ground to question and analyze internally the role of poetry in the multiplicity of man and modern society to therefore conclude that universalism the Emílio Moura becomes distinctive and mature. Thus, we will check how poetic inflows corroborate both works for reevaluation and critical insertion of poetic the Emílio Moura in the context of modern/Modernist Brazilian literature

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Pós-graduação em Letras - IBILCE

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The availability of the electrical energy, in sufficient quantities and in competitive prices is a crucial factor to the economic development. The trade-in of the excess electrical energy produced in a system of cogeneration can be seen as an alternative to the creation of an additional source of revenues for ethanol power plants sector, besides contributing to the complementation of the Brazilian electrical headquarter with renewable sources. The objective of this study was to evaluate the economic feasibility of the implementation of a cogeneration electrical central using the excess of sugar cane bagasse and selling the excess of electrical energy with prices of the market. An ethanol power plant located in the state of Sao Paulo was used to this study. It was used the case study methodology, evaluating the potential of the investment under the viewpoint of the Net Present Value (NPV), Payback and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and complementing the results of the Accounting Results (AC). It was created three alternative scenarios to reflect the level of the risk of every studied situation: the most likely, an optimistic and a pessimistic, each one with its assumptions. The Monte Carlo Simulations was used to insert the elements of risk to each scenario. The results showed that the project is feasible in all NPV scenarios. And the Payback and IRR analysis confirmed these evidences. The valuation with the AR showed that the project is most risky at the pessimistic scenario, but is feasibly in the most likely and the optimistic scenarios. It was concluded that the project is economic viable. However, the economic viability shown in the results is based on the maintenance of the future prices on the levels of the historical prices used in the analysis.