Load models support sustainable: planning for Brazil s reservoir aquaculture

Cage aquaculture in hydroelectric reservoirs has great potential for expansion in Brazil, but there are concerns of negative environmental impacts. The environmental sustainability of cage culture depends on hamornization between farming practices and the hydrological peculiarities of the site. Mass balance modeling can estimate the amounts of nutrients that can be loaded without triggering eutrophication and resulting maximum allowable production volume. Careful climate zoning can also assist proper siting.

A novel neural model to electrical load forecasting in transformers

The paper describes a novel neural model to electrical load forecasting in transformers. The network acts as identifier of structural features to forecast process. So that output parameters can be estimated and generalized from an input parameter set. The model was trained and assessed through load data extracted from a Brazilian Electric Utility taking into account time, current, tension, active power in the three phases of the system. The results obtained in the simulations show that the developed technique can be used as an alternative tool to become more appropriate for planning of electric power systems.

Multi-Agent Simulation of Urban Social Dynamics for Spatial Load Forecasting

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A Cellular Automaton Approach to Spatial Electric Load Forecasting

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Spatial electric load forecasting using an evolutionary heuristic

A method for spatial electric load forecasting using elements from evolutionary algorithms is presented. The method uses concepts from knowledge extraction algorithms and linguistic rules' representation to characterize the preferences for land use into a spatial database. The future land use preferences in undeveloped zones in the electrical utility service area are determined using an evolutionary heuristic, which considers a stochastic behavior by crossing over similar rules. The method considers development of new zones and also redevelopment of existing ones. The results are presented in future preference maps. The tests in a real system from a midsized city show a high rate of success when results are compared with information gathered from the utility planning department. The most important features of this method are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability.

Transmission network expansion planning considering uncertainty in demand

This paper presents two mathematical models and one methodology to solve a transmission network expansion planning problem considering uncertainty in demand. The first model analyzed the uncertainty in the system as a whole; then, this model considers the uncertainty in the total demand of the power system. The second one analyzed the uncertainty in each load bus individually. The methodology used to solve the problem, finds the optimal transmission network expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately in an environment with uncertainty. The models presented are solved using a specialized genetic algorithm. The results obtained for several known systems from literature show that cheaper plans can be found satisfying the uncertainty in demand.

Multi-Agent Framework for Spatial Load Forecasting

A multi-agent framework for spatial electric load forecasting, especially suited to simulate the different dynamics involved on distribution systems, is presented. The service zone is divided into several sub-zones, each subzone is considered as an independent agent identified with a corresponding load level, and their relationships with the neighbor zones are represented as development probabilities. With this setting, different kind of agents can be developed to simulate the growth pattern of the loads in distribution systems. This paper presents two different kinds of agents to simulate different situations, presenting some promissory results.

Planning of secondary distribution circuits through evolutionary algorithms

In this work, the planning of secondary distribution circuits is approached as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem (MINLP). In order to solve this problem, a dedicated evolutionary algorithm (EA) is proposed. This algorithm uses a codification scheme, genetic operators, and control parameters, projected and managed to consider the specific characteristics of the secondary network planning. The codification scheme maps the possible solutions that satisfy the requirements in order to obtain an effective and low-cost projected system-the conductors' adequate dimensioning, load balancing among phases, and the transformer placed at the center of the secondary system loads. An effective algorithm for three-phase power flow is used as an auxiliary methodology of the EA for the calculation of the fitness function proposed for solutions of each topology. Results for two secondary distribution circuits are presented, whereas one presents radial topology and the other a weakly meshed topology. © 2005 IEEE.

Integrated planning of electric power distribution networks

In this work, a heuristic model for integrated planning of primary distribution network and secondary distribution circuits is proposed. A Tabu Search (TS) algorithm is employed to solve the planning of primary distribution networks. Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) are used to solve the planning model of secondary networks. The planning integration of both networks is carried out by means a constructive heuristic taking into account a set of integration alternatives between these networks. These integration alternatives are treated in a hierarchical way. The planning of primary networks and secondary distribution circuits is carried out based on assessment of the effects of the alternative solutions in the expansion costs of both networks simultaneously. In order to evaluate this methodology, tests were performed for a real-life distribution system taking into account the primary and secondary networks.

Spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach

An agent based model for spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach for the spatiotemporal allocation of the new loads in the service zone is presented. The density of electrical load for each of the major consumer classes in each sub-zone is used as the current state of the agents. The spatial growth is simulated with a walking agent who starts his path in one of the activity centers of the city and goes to the limits of the city following a radial path depending on the different load levels. A series of update rules are established to simulate the S growth behavior and the complementarity between classes. The results are presented in future load density maps. The tests in a real system from a mid-size city show a high rate of success when compared with other techniques. The most important features of this methodology are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability. © 2009 IEEE.

Specialized genetic algorithm for transmission network expansion planning considering reliability

This paper presents a methodology to solve the transmission network expansion planning problem (TNEP) considering reliability and uncertainty in the demand. The proposed methodology provides an optimal expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately with an acceptable level of reliability and in an enviroment with uncertainness. The reliability criterion limits the expected value of the reliability index (LOLE - Loss Of Load Expectation) of the expanded system. The reliability is evaluated for the transmission system using an analytical technique based in enumeration. The mathematical model is solved, in a efficient way, using a specialized genetic algorithm of Chu-Beasley modified. Detailed results from an illustrative example are presented and discussed. © 2009 IEEE.

Spatial load forecasting using a demand propagation approach

A method for spatial electric load forecasting using multi-agent systems, especially suited to simulate the local effect of special loads in distribution systems is presented. The method based on multi-agent systems uses two kinds of agents: reactive and proactive. The reactive agents represent each sub-zone in the service zone, characterizing each one with their corresponding load level, represented in a real number, and their relationships with other sub-zones represented in development probabilities. The proactive agent carry the new load expected to be allocated because of the new special load, this agent distribute the new load in a propagation pattern. The results are presented with maps of future expected load levels in the service zone. The method is tested with data from a mid-size city real distribution system, simulating the effect of a load with attraction and repulsion attributes. The method presents good results and performance. © 2011 IEEE.

Market-driven security-constrained transmission network expansion planning

This paper presents a Bi-level Programming (BP) approach to solve the Transmission Network Expansion Planning (TNEP) problem. The proposed model is envisaged under a market environment and considers security constraints. The upper-level of the BP problem corresponds to the transmission planner which procures the minimization of the total investment and load shedding cost. This upper-level problem is constrained by a single lower-level optimization problem which models a market clearing mechanism that includes security constraints. Results on the Garver's 6-bus and IEEE 24-bus RTS test systems are presented and discussed. Finally, some conclusions are drawn. © 2011 IEEE.

A combinatorial approach for transmission expansion & reactive power planning

A metaheuristic technique for solving the short-term transmission network expansion and reactive power planning problems, at the same time, in regulated power systems using the AC model is presented. The problem is solved using a real genetic algorithm (RGA). For each topology proposed by RGA an indicator is employed to identify the weak buses for new reactive power sources allocation. The fitness function is calculated using the cost of each configuration as well as constraints deviation of an AC optimal power flow (OPF) in which the minimum reactive generation of new reactive sources and the active power losses are objectives. With allocation of reactive power sources at load buses, the circuit capacity increases and the cost of installation could be decreased. The method is tested in a well known test system, presenting good results when compared with other approaches. © 2011 IEEE.

An application of a modified constructive heuristic algorithm to transmission expansion planning

Transmission expansion planning (TEP) is a non-convex optimization problem that can be solved via different heuristic algorithms. A variety of classical as well as heuristic algorithms in literature are addressed to solve TEP problem. In this paper a modified constructive heuristic algorithm (CHA) is proposed for solving such a crucial problem. Most of research papers handle TEP problem by linearization of the non-linear mathematical model while in this research TEP problem is solved via CHA using non-linear model. The proposed methodology is based upon Garver's algorithm capable of applying to a DC model. Simulation studies and tests results on the well known transmission network such as: Garver and IEEE 24-bus systems are carried out to show the significant performance as well as the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. © 2011 IEEE.