Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in São Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of São Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of São Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Comércio de animais de carga no Brasil imperial: uma análise quantitativa das tropas negociadas nas províncias do Paraná e São Paulo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Using phenology to assess urban heat islands in tropical and temperate regions

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

NDVI and vegetation phenology dynamics under the influence of sunshine duration on the Tibetan plateau

Climate change has significantly influenced vegetation dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Past research mainly focused on vegetation responses to temperature variation and water stress, but the influence of sunshine duration on NDVI and vegetation phenology on the TP is not well understood. In this study, NDVI time series from 1982-2008 were used to retrieve spatiotemporal vegetation dynamics on the TP. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was conducted to understand the spatiotemporal variations of NDVI. The Start of Season (SOS) was estimated from NDVI time series with a local threshold method. The first EOF, accounting for 35.1% of NDVI variations on the TP, indicates that NDVI variations are larger in areas with shorter sunshine duration. The needle-leaved forest and shrub in the southeastern TP are more sensitive to sunshine duration anomalies (p < 0.01) than broad-leaved forest, steppe, and meadow due to spatial and altitudinal distribution of sunshine duration and vegetation types. The decrease in sunshine duration for the growing season on the TP has resulted in a decreased NDVI trend in some areas of southeastern TP (p ranging from 0.32-0.05 with threshold ranging from 0.05 to 0.25) in spite of the overall NDVI increase. SOS dynamics in most parts of the TP were mainly related to temperature variability, with precipitation and sunshine duration playing a role in a few regions. This study enhances our understanding of vegetation responses to climatic change on the TP.

Antiproliferative activity of cardenolide glycosides from Asclepias subulata

Asclepias subulata Decne. is a shrub occurring in Sonora-Arizona desert (Mexico-USA). The ethnic groups, Seris and Pimas, use this plant for the treatment of sore eyes, gastrointestinal disorders and cancer. To isolate the compounds responsible for antiproliferative activity of the methanol extract of A. subulata. A bioguided fractionation of methanol extract of A. subulata was performed using MTT assay to measure the antiproliferative activity of different compounds on three human cancer cell lines (A549, LS 180 and PC-3), one murine cancer cell line (RAW 264.7) and one human normal cell line (ARPE-19). The methanol extract was partitioned with hexane, ethyl acetate and ethanol. The active fractions, ethanol and residual, were fractioned by silica-column chromatography and active sub-fractions were separated using HPLC. The chemical structures of isolated compounds were elucidated with different chemical and spectroscopic methods. A new cardenolide glycoside, 12, 16-dihydroxycalotropin, and three known, calotropin, corotoxigenin 3-O-glucopyranoside and desglucouzarin, were isolated of active sub-fractions. All isolated compounds showed a strong antiproliferative activity in human cancer cells. Calotropin was the more active with IC50 values of 0.0013, 0.06 and 0.41 µM on A549, LS 180 and PC-3 cell lines, respectively; while 12, 16-dihydroxycalotropin reached values of 2.48, 5.62 and 11.70 µM, on the same cells; corotoxigenin 3-O-glucopyranoside had IC50 of 2.64, 3.15 and 6.62 µM and desglucouzarin showed values of 0.90, 6.57 and 6.62, µM. Doxorubicin, positive control, showed IC50 values of 1.78, 6.99 and 3.18 µM, respectively. The isolated compounds had a weak effect on murine cancer cells and human normal cells, exhibiting selectivity to human cancer cells. In this study, we found that 12, 16-dihydroxicalotropin, calotropin, corotoxigenin 3-O-glucopyranoside and desglucouzarin are responsible of antiproliferative properties of A. subulata, and that these compounds are highly selective to human cancer cells. Further studies are needed in order to establish the action mechanisms of the isolated compounds.

Statistical detection of spurious variations in daily raingauge data caused by changes in observation practices, as applied to records from various parts of the world

In the instrumental records of daily precipitation, we often encounter one or more periods in which values below some threshold were not registered. Such periods, besides lacking small values, also have a large number of dry days. Their cumulative distribution function is shifted to the right in relation to that for other portions of the record having more reliable observations. Such problems are examined in this work, based mostly on the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test, where the portion of the series with more number of dry days is compared with the portion with less number of dry days. Another relatively common problem in daily rainfall data is the prevalence of integers either throughout the period of record or in some part of it, likely resulting from truncation during data compilation prior to archiving or by coarse rounding of daily readings by observers. This problem is identified by simple calculation of the proportion of integers in the series, taking the expected proportion as 10%. The above two procedures were applied to the daily rainfall data sets from the European Climate Assessment (ECA), Southeast Asian Climate Assessment (SACA), and Brazilian Water Resources Agency (BRA). Taking the statistic D of the KS test >0.15 and the corresponding p-value <0.001 as the condition to classify a given series as suspicious, the proportions of the ECA, SACA, and BRA series falling into this category are, respectively, 34.5%, 54.3%, and 62.5%. With relation to coarse rounding problem, the proportions of series exceeding twice the 10% reference level are 3%, 60%, and 43% for the ECA, SACA, and BRA data sets, respectively. A simple way to visualize the two problems addressed here is by plotting the time series of daily rainfall for a limited range, for instance, 0–10 mm day−1.