A crise econômico-financeira internacional e seus impactos sobre a preservação das microempresas e empresas de pequeno porte

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The current financial and economic crisis: empirical and methodological issues

In this paper we describe the main causes of the recent financial crisis as a result of many theoretical, methodological, and practical shortcomings mostly according to heterodox, but also including some important orthodox economists. At theoretical level, there are problems concerning teaching and using economic models with overly unrealistic assumptions. In the methodological front, we find the unsuspected shadow of Milton Friedman’s ‘unrealisticism of assumptions’ thesis lurking behind the construction of this kind of models and the widespread neglect of methodological issues. Of course, the most evident shortcomings are at the practical level: (i) huge interests of the participants in the financial markets (banks, central bankers, regulators, rating agencies mortgage brokers, politicians, governments, executives, economists, etc. mainly in the US, Canada and Europe, but also in Japan and the rest of the world), (ii) in an almost completely free financial and economic market, that is, one (almost) without any regulation or supervision, (iii) decision-taking upon some not well regarded qualities, like irresponsibility, ignorance, and inertia; and (iv) difficulties to understand the current crisis as well as some biases directing economic rescues by governments. Following many others, we propose that we take this episode as an opportunity to reflect on, and hopefully redirect, economic theory and practice.

Inovação, competição internacional e transição hegemônica: a política científico-tecnológica dos Estados Unidos para evitar o declínio no século XXI

Pós-graduação em Relações Internacionais (UNESP - UNICAMP - PUC-SP) - FFC

Identifying financial crises in real time

Following the thermodynamic formulation of a multifractal measure that was shown to enable the detection of large fluctuations at an early stage, here we propose a new index which permits us to distinguish events like financial crises in real time. We calculate the partition function from which we can obtain thermodynamic quantities analogous to the free energy and specific heat. The index is defined as the normalized energy variation and it can be used to study the behavior of stochastic time series, such as financial market daily data. Famous financial market crashes-Black Thursday (1929), Black Monday (1987) and the subprime crisis (2008)-are identified with clear and robust results. The method is also applied to the market fluctuations of 2011. From these results it appears as if the apparent crisis of 2011 is of a different nature to the other three. We also show that the analysis has forecasting capabilities. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

O setor de venture capital, as startups e o empreendedorismo em Israel, nos anos recentes

Some of the factors that help to explain the Israeli success case on promoting high-tech start-ups backed by venture capital funds can be found in the risk-taking culture of the country, the vast technological know-how associated with the huge military development, the high offer of human intellectual capital due to the immigration processes, and finally also the FDI inflows, mainly from the United States. Even though, these factors would not have the same effects in the economy unless the right structures were founded by the public-private sectors partnerships for the high-tech industry development and the adaptation of the investment industry surpasses two of the deepest global financial crisis: the dot-com bubble in the 2000’s and the subprime in 2008

Interpretação da crise financeira mundial sob a perspectiva de David Harvey

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

A preservação da empresa diante da tutela do consumidor superendividado

Pós-graduação em Direito - FCHS

Programa Minha Casa Minha Vida: estratégia no enfrentamento da crise de 2008

This work aims to present an analysis of the Minha Casa Minha Vida, proposed by Lula's government in 2009, highlighting their main impacts for the country in the period following the international financial crisis of 2008, in addition to demonstrating the perception of different inserted agents in context. We argue that the Program implementation was a strategy for the country to overcome the crisis, moving the economy to stimulate consumption, investment and job creation. This work also analyzes the Lula government, responsible for program implementation, and seeks to show its characteristic points that led to the success of the Minha Casa Minha Vida. Finally, we demonstrate that the 2008 crisis has a side still little explored, that goes beyond the economic data that generated and can be regarded as the mainstream economic thinking crisis

Formação, sustentação ou implosão de uma bolha imobiliária? A dinâmica de preços no mercado de imóveis de Natal no período 2005-2010

A motivação para a realização deste artigo foi a percepção de que o movimento de preços dos imóveis em Natal apresentava componentes que precisavam ser investigados, notadamente o influxo de capital estrangeiro, sobretudo para aplicação nos setores de turismo e imobiliário e o comportamento do crédito imobiliário. O objetivo do trabalho é examinar a evolução dos preços no mercado de imóveis da cidade no período 2005; 2010. Os indicadores levantados permitiram uma coleta de evidências suficiente para ampliar o grau de confiança nas hipóteses de que, de fato: a) ocorreu uma bolha no mercado de imóveis no triênio 2005; 2007; b) a bolha não implodiu no biênio 2009; 2010, após a crise financeira de 2008, pois o movimento de alta de preços se manteve tanto nos imóveis vendidos na planta quanto nos imóveis prontos.

Cellular automata-based spatial dynamic modeling for analyzing urban land use change

This paper analyzes land use change in Rio Claro City and its surroundings, located in the southeastern state of Sao Paulo, in the period from 1988 to 1995, using air-borne digital imagery and a cellular automata model. The simulation experiment was carried out in the Dinamica EGO platform and the results revealed a constrained urban sprawl, resulting from both the densification of residential areas implemented in previous years and the economic recession that led to an internal financial crisis in Brazil during the early 1990s. The simulation outputs were validated using a multi-resolution procedure based on a fuzzy similarity index and showed a satisfactory fitness in relation to the historical reference data. © 2013 IEEE.

A crise econômica no Japão após os anos 90

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Taxa de câmbio e estratégia de crescimento econômico de longo prazo da China

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

Sociedade de economia mista: possibilidade de recuperação judicial

Pós-graduação em Direito - FCHS

A crise financeira de 2008: os discursos e as estratégias do governo e dos fundos de pensão

This article focuses on the financial crisis beginning in 2008. Drawing on the work of Lebaron (2010; 2011) and (Grün 2010), the study seeks to grasp the cognitive dimension of the crisis through the discourses produced (and reproduced) by members of the Brazilian government involved in controlling the crisis and by the pension fund sector and its strategies. The method was based on analysis of documents produced by the pension fund sector and the Lula Administration in 2008 and the spinoffs of the discourses and strategies. The text indicates the construction of a discourse emphasizing the importance of state regulation (as opposed to market self-regulation) and the central role of pension funds during the process, since they partially abandoned government bonds and migrated to productive investment, in alliance with the private equity sector, especially in financing construction works under the Growth Acceleration Program.

Crise financeira: o caso japonês

This paper aims to analyze the experience of Japan after the collapse of speculative bubbles in assets and the banking crisis in the 1990s. An analysis about the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy is conducted and the measures taken with respect to the banking sector are also discussed in this paper. The Japanese financial crisis experience suggests that the nature, speed and order in which the government implements measures determine, in large part, the magnitude and cost of the crisis. Therefore, in hindsight, it can be said that the following tasks were necessary: 1) recapitalize the banking sector; 2) restore credit; and 3) reinvigorate the economic activity through appropriate fiscal measures.