Delays in stabilization or in reforms? The debt crisis

Empirical analyses attributing the 1980s' debt crisis to inconsistent stabilization policies rest on an inappropriate long-run approach. Revising this long-run approach yields opposite results: terms of trade shocks and foreign indebtedness explain this crisis, regardless of domestic stabilization policies. This prompts us to consider a new hypothesis, of delays in trade-policy reforms, with a model in which terms-of-trade variation (under shocks) is endogenous to export structure and efficiency of resource allocation. Evidence from the structural equations model shows that allocation distortions negatively affect changes in terms of trade, which then explain this crisis. A political economy extension demonstrates that income inequality and regional trade policy determine the distortions, which in turn leads to this crisis.

The debt crisis: a re-appraisal

The 1980s' debt crisis is a landmark in developing economies' growth and stabilization. According to the most quoted empirical articles, external shocks and vicissitudes gave rise to crisis just because of delays in stabilization policies, engendered by internal conflicts and institutional immaturity. I review some of these papers, and find out some problems - in the measurement of shocks and foreign indebtedness, namely - whose corrections lead to opposite results: external shocks and foreign indebtedness explain that crisis regardless of domestic policies. At the same time, the strong correlation of income distribution to terms of trade changes and foreign indebtedness suggest that inequality may have contributed differently to that crisis: either through an economic channel, or through a political channel based on delays in reforms.

Política fiscal e reestruturação da dívida pública no Brasil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A crise da Grécia: origens, interpretações e alternativas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Definição de um modelo de análise de sucesso das empresas baseado em índices contábeis e na análise multivariada

The objective of this paper is to relate the set of financial ratios that are directly related to the success of public traded companies using a methodological approach and the method of multivariate principal component analysis. This study consists in the use of profitability ratios, debt and liquidity, to define the relationship between financial ratios with the best public traded companies listed in the magazine Exame Melhores e Maiores of 2013. Multivariate analysis was used to reduce the dimensionality of multivariate data, making linear combinations of the original variables (financial ratios) and express the data in principal components that result in new variables that contains much of the original data. As a result, we got the optimal number of five principal components, and both represent 95.6% of the original data. Among of all financial ratios, we can highlight the direct relationship between profitability ratios for the first principal component, and the direct relationship between the liquidity ratios, both inversely related with non-capital participation rates and degree indebtedness to the second principal component

A preservação da empresa diante da tutela do consumidor superendividado

Pós-graduação em Direito - FCHS

Banco do Vaticano: uma análise econômico-financeira

This thesis work aims to bring a better viewing on an atypical case of financial analysis. The lstituto per le Opere di Religione (IOR), commonly known as the Vatican Bank, has peculiarities according to its goals as a bank. Belonging to a Catholic religious congregation, IOR has been used to manage the resources of the church, and ensure that these resources are used for the operation of it and, also for religious works. However the financial transactions made by the bank remained secret throughout its existence until mid 2012. This feature of not providing relevant information at the local and international community brought harm. Several cases of corruption and money laundering came up, bringing scandals that cause bad looks for the religious entity. In order to interact with the international community and understanding the importance of it, the Roman Apostolic Catholic Church decides to joing the international accounting procedures (IFRS) and went on to provide yearly financial statement reports and other information from its bank from 2012 . Thus, this thesis work takes on the role of analyzing the financial statements of the IOR and present its economic and financial health from the Capital Structure ratios, liquidity and profitability in the period 2012-2014. Overall, there has been a significant reduction in indebtedness 548% in 2012 to 362% in 2014. However, such an index showing is still high. In addition, the debt profile remained bad (87.47% short-term in 2014). The Liquidity ratios, both indices fell during the analysed period. Noteworthy is that even with retractions, the indices are equal or greater than 1, which indicates financial footing able to pay off debts. Regarding profitability, in 2013 it represented atypical moment, considering the economic performance of the IOR in the investigated period. There was decrease in profits this year, which resulted in great loss of the indicators in 2013. For the previous and subsequent...