23 resultados para forecast deviation
em Repositório Institucional UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Julio de Mesquita Filho"
Resumo:
Selection of dominant follicles in cattle is associated with a deviation in growth rate between the dominant and largest subordinate follicle of a wave (diameter deviation). To determine whether acquisition of ovulatory capacity is temporally associated with diameter deviation, cows were challenged with purified LH at known times after a GnRH-induced LH surge (experiment 1) or at known follicular diameters (experiments 2 and 3). A 4-mg dose of LH induced ovulation in all cows when the largest follicle was greater than or equal to 12 mm (16 of 16), in 17% (1 of 6) when it was 11 mm, and no ovulation when it was less than or equal to 10 mm (0 of 19). To determine the effect of LH dose on ovulatory capacity, follicular dynamics were monitored every 12 h, and cows received either 4 or 24 mg of LH when the largest follicle first achieved 10 mm in diameter (experiment 2). The proportion of cows ovulating was greater (P < 0.05) for the 24-mg (9 of 13; 69.2%) compared with the 4-mg (1 of 13; 7.7%) LH dose. To determine the effect of a higher LH dose on follicles near diameter deviation, follicular dynamics were monitored every 8 h, and cows received 40 mg of LH when the largest follicle first achieved 7.0, 8.5, or 10.0 mm (experiment 3). No cows with a follicle of 7 mm (0 of 9) or 8.5 mm (0 of 9) ovulated, compared with 80% (8 of 10) of cows with 10-mm follicles. Thus, follicles acquired ovulatory capacity at about 10 mm, corresponding to about 1 day after the start of follicular deviation, but they required a greater LH dose to induce ovulation compared with larger follicles. We speculate that acquisition of ovulatory capacity may involve an increased expression of LH receptors on granulosa cells of the dominant follicle and that this change may also be important for further growth of the dominant follicle.
Resumo:
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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The objectives of Experiment I were to determine the interval from ovulation to deviation, and diameter of the dominant follicle (DF) and largest subordinate follicle (SF) at deviation in Nelore (Bos indicus) heifers by two methods (observed and calculated). Heifers (n = 12) were examined ultrasonographically every 12 h from ovulation (Day 0) to Day 5. The time of deviation and diameter of the DF and largest SF at deviation did not differ (P > 0.05) between observed and calculated methods. Overall, deviation occurred 2.5 +/- 0.2 d (mean +/- S.E.M.) after ovulation, and diameters for DF and largest SF at deviation were 6.2 +/- 0.2 and 5.9 +/- 0.2 mm, respectively. Experiment 2 was designed to determine the size at which the DF acquires ovulatory capacity in B. indicus heifers. Twenty-nine heifers were monitored every 24 h by ultrasonography, from ovulation until the DF reached diameters of 7.0-8.4 mm (n = 9), 8.5-10.0 mm (n = 10), or >10.0 mm (n = 10). At that time, heifers were treated with 25 mg of pLH and monitored by ultrasonography every 12 h for 48 h. Ovulation occurred in 3 of 9, 8 of 10, and 9 of 10 heifers, respectively (P < 0.05). In summary, there was no significant difference between observed and calculated methods of determining the beginning of follicle deviation. Deviation occurred 2.5 d after ovulation when the DF reached 6.2 mm, and ovulatory capacity was acquired by DF as small as 7.0 mm. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Uma equação de regressão múltipla MOS (da sigla em inglês para Model Output Statistics), para previsão da temperatura mínima diária do ar na cidade de Bauru, estado de São Paulo, é desenvolvida. A equação de regressão múltipla, obtida usando análise de regressão stepwise, tem quatro preditores, três do modelo numérico global do Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) e um observacional da estação meteorológica do Instituto de Pesquisas Meteorológicas (IPMet), Bauru. Os preditores são prognósticos para 24 horas do modelo global, válidos para 00:00GMT, da temperatura em 1000hPa, vento meridional em 850hPa e umidade relativa em 1000hPa, e temperatura observada às 18:00GMT. Esses quatro preditores explicam, aproximadamente, 80% da variância total do preditando, com erro quadrático médio de 1,4°C, que é aproximadamente metade do desvio padrão da temperatura mínima diária do ar observada na estação do IPMet. Uma verificação da equação MOS com uma amostra independente de 47 casos mostra que a previsão não se deteriora significativamente quando o preditor observacional for desconsiderado. A equação MOS, com ou sem esse preditor, produz previsões com erro absoluto menor do que 1,5°C em 70% dos casos examinados. Este resultado encoraja a utilização da técnica MOS para previsão operacional da temperatura mínima e seu desenvolvimento para outros elementos do tempo e outras localidades.
Resumo:
Follicle diameter deviation is defined as the beginning of the differential change in growth rates between the largest and next largest follicles subsequent to wave emergence and is considered a key component of follicle selection. Follicle selection has been extensively studied in European breeds of cattle (Bos taurus) but has not been critically studied in Zebu breeds (Bos indicus). The objectives of the present study were to determine and compare the morphological characteristics of deviation associated with the first post-ovulatory wave (Wave 1) of the estrous cycle in Nelore heifers (n = 8) and nonlactating cows (n = 11). Beginning on the day of ovulation (day 0), the three largest follicles (F1-F3, respectively) were individually tracked every 12 h for 6 d using transrectal ultrasonography. In individual animals, deviation was determined graphically using visual inspection of the diameter profiles of F1, F2 and sometimes F3 (observed deviation) and mathematically using segmented regression analysis of the diameter differences between F1 and F2 or sometimes F3 (calculated deviation). Mean day of emergence of Wave 1 when F1 reached >3 rum (approximately 1 d after ovulation) and growth rate of F1 during deviation (approximately 1.4 mm/d) were not significantly different between heifers and cows. The results of determining the beginning of deviation within heifers and cows using the observed and calculated methods were not significantly different. Averaged over both methods, diameter deviation occurred 2.8 d after ovulation when F1 reached 5.7 mm in heifers, and 2.4 d after ovulation when F1 reached 6.1 mm in cows. In conclusion, the emergence of Wave 1 and growth rates and diameters of the future dominant follicles at the beginning of deviation were similar in Nelore heifers and nonlactating cows, regardless of the methods used to determine deviation. Relative to Holstein cattle, emergence of Wave 1 appeared to occur about 1 d later and diameter of the future dominant follicle at the beginning of deviation was about 2 turn smaller in Nelore. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The atomic superradiant emission is treated in the single-particle mean-field approximation. A single-particle Hamiltonian, which represents a dressed two-level atom in a radiation field, can be obtained and it is verified that it describes the transient regime of the emission process. While the line-shape emission for a bare atom follows the sech2 law, for the dressed atom the line shape deviates appreciably from this law and it is verified that the deviation depends crucially on the ratio of the dynamic frequency shift to the transition frequency. This kind of deviation is observed in experimental results. © 1990 The American Physical Society.
Resumo:
The effects of several doses of progesterone on FSH and LH concentrations were used to study the role of the gonadotropins on deviation in growth rates of the two largest follicles during the establishment of follicle dominance. Progesterone was given to pony mares at a daily dose rate of 0 mg (controls), 30 mg (low dose), 100 mg (intermediate dose), and 300 mg (high dose). All follicles ≥ 6 mm were ablated at Day 10 (Day 0 = ovulation) to initiate a new follicular wave; prostaglandin F(2α) was given to induce luteolysis, and progesterone was given from Days 10 to 24. The low dose did not significantly alter any of the ovarian or gonadotropin end points. The high dose reduced (P < 0.05) the ablation-induced FSH concentrations on Day 11. Maximum diameter of the largest follicle (17.2 ± 0.6 mm) and the second- largest follicle (15.5 ± 0.9 mm) in the high-dose group was less (P < 0.04) than the diameter of the second-largest follicle in the controls (20.0 ± 1.0 mm) at the beginning of deviation (Day 16.7 ± 0.4). Thus, the growth of the two largest follicles was reduced by the high dose, presumably through depression of FSH, so that the follicles did not attain a diameter characteristic of deviation in the controls. The intermediate dose did not affect FSH concentrations. However, the LH concentrations increased in the control, low, and intermediate groups, but then decreased (P < 0.05) in the intermediate group to pretreatment levels. The LH decrease in the intermediate group occurred 2 days before deviation in the controls. The maximum diameter of the largest follicle was less (P < 0.0001) in the intermediate group (27.3 ± 1.8 mm) than in the controls (38.9 ± 1.5 mm), but the maximum diameter of the second-largest follicle was not different between the two groups (19.0 ± 1.1 vs. 20.3 ± 1.0 mm). Thus, the onset of deviation, as assessed by the second-largest follicle, was not delayed by the decrease in LH. Diameter of the largest follicle by Day 18 in the intermediate group (23.1 ± 1.6 mm) was less (P < 0.05) than in the controls (28.0 ± 1.0 mm). These results suggest that circulating LH was not involved in the initiation of dominance (inhibition of other follicles by the largest follicle) but was required for the continued growth of the largest follicle after or concurrently with its initial expression of dominance.
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The effect of altered LH concentrations on the deviation in growth rates between the 2 largest follicles was studied in pony mares. The progestational phase was shortened by administration of PGF2α on Day 10 (Day 0=ovulation; n=9) or lengthened by daily administration of 100 mg of progesterone on Days 10 to 30 (n=11; controls, n=10). All follicles ≥5 mm were ablated on Day 10 in all groups to initiate a new follicular wave. The interovulatory interval was not altered by the PGF2α treatment despite a 4-day earlier decrease in progesterone concentrations. Time required for growth of the follicles of the new wave apparently delayed the interval to ovulation after luteolysis. The FSH concentrations of the first post-ablation FSH surge were not different among groups. A second FSH surge with an associated follicular wave began by Day 22 in 7 of 11 mares in the progesterone group and in 0 of 19 mares in the other groups, indicating reduced functional competence of the largest follicle. A prolonged elevation in LH concentrations began on the mean day of wave emergence (Day 11) in the prostaglandin group (19.2 ± 2.2 vs 9.0 ± 0.7 ng/mL in controls; P<0.05), an average of 4 d before an increase in the controls. Concentrations of LH in the progesterone group initially increased until Day 14 and then decreased so that by Day 18 the concentrations were lower (P<0.05) than in the control group (12.9 ± 1.6 vs 20.2 ± 2.6 ng/mL). Neither the early and prolonged increase nor the early decrease in LH concentrations altered the growth profile of the second-largest follicle, suggesting that LH was not involved in the initiation of deviation. However, the early decrease in LH concentrations in the progesterone group was followed by a smaller (P<0.05) diameter of the largest follicle by Day 20 (26.9 ± 1.7 mm) than the controls (30.3 ± 1.7 mm), suggesting that LH was necessary for continued growth of the largest follicle after deviation. (C) 2000 by Elsevier B.V.
Resumo:
Follicle diameters and concentrations of follicular fluid factors were studied in the two largest follicles (F1 and F2) using F1 diameters in increments of 0.2 mm (equivalent to 4 h intervals) and extending from 7.4 to 8.4 mm (12 heifers in each of 6 groups). Changes were compared between follicles using the F2 associated with each F1-diameter group. Diameter deviation began in the 8.2-mm group as indicated by a greater (P < 0.05) diameter difference between F1 and F2 in the 8.4-mm group than in the 8.2-mm group. In the 8.0-mm group, estradiol concentrations began to increase (P < 0.05) differentially in F1 versus F2, and free insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) began to decrease differentially in F2 (P < 0.06). Combined for F1 and the associated F2, activin-A concentrations increased (P < 0.05) between the 7.6- and 8.2-mm groups and then decreased (P < 0.05). Results supported the hypothesis that estradiol and free IGF-1 concentrations simultaneously become higher in F1 than in the associated F2 by the beginning of diameter deviation. Results did not support the hypothesis that a transient elevation in activin-A is present in F1 but not in the associated F2 at the beginning of the estradiol and IGF-1 changes; instead, a mean transient elevation in activin-A occurred at this time only when data for the two follicles were combined. Comparisons between F1 and F2 also were made by independently grouping F2 and using diameter groups at 0.2-mm increments for F2 as well as for F1. In the diameter groups common to F1 and F2 (7.4, 7.6, 7.8, and 8.0 mm) there was a group effect (P < 0.003) for estradiol involving an increase (P < 0.05) beginning at the 7.6-mm group averaged over F1 and F2. For free IGF-1 concentrations, a fluctuation (a significant increase followed by a significant decrease) occurred independently in F1 between the 7.4-to 7.8-mm groups and independently in F2 between the 7.0- to 7.4-mm groups.
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Managing the great complexity of enterprise system, due to entities numbers, decision and process varieties involved to be controlled results in a very hard task because deals with the integration of its operations and its information systems. Moreover, the enterprises find themselves in a constant changing process, reacting in a dynamic and competitive environment where their business processes are constantly altered. The transformation of business processes into models allows to analyze and redefine them. Through computing tools usage it is possible to minimize the cost and risks of an enterprise integration design. This article claims for the necessity of modeling the processes in order to define more precisely the enterprise business requirements and the adequate usage of the modeling methodologies. Following these patterns, the paper concerns the process modeling relative to the domain of demand forecasting as a practical example. The domain of demand forecasting was built based on a theoretical review. The resulting models considered as reference model are transformed into information systems and have the aim to introduce a generic solution and be start point of better practical forecasting. The proposal is to promote the adequacy of the information system to the real needs of an enterprise in order to enable it to obtain and accompany better results, minimizing design errors, time, money and effort. The enterprise processes modeling are obtained with the usage of CIMOSA language and to the support information system it was used the UML language.