Analytical and Monte Carlo approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties-and, in some cases, rewards-that introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the maximum continuous interruption duration (MCID) per customer.This parameter is responsible for the majority of penalties in many electric distribution utilities. This paper describes analytical and Monte Carlo simulation approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration indices. More emphasis will be given to the development of an analytical method to assess the probability distribution associated with the parameter MCID and the correspond ng penalties. Case studies on a simple distribution network and on a real Brazilian distribution system are presented and discussed.

Chronological Monte Carlo-based assessment of distribution system reliability

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties, and in some cases rewards, which introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the Maximum Continuous Interruption Duration per customer (MCID). This paper describes a chronological Monte Carlo simulation approach to evaluate probability distributions of reliability indices, including the MCID, and the corresponding penalties. In order to get the desired efficiency, modern computational techniques are used for modeling (UML -Unified Modeling Language) as well as for programming (Object- Oriented Programming). Case studies on a simple distribution network and on real Brazilian distribution systems are presented and discussed. © Copyright KTH 2006.

Knowledge-based risk management: Survey on Brazilian software development enterprises

A risks management, carried on in an effective way, leads the software development to success and may influence on the organization. The knowledge takes part of such a process as a way to help taking decisions. This research aimed to analyze the use of Knowledge Management techniques to the Risk Management in software projects development and the possible influence on the enterprise revenue. It had, as its main studying subject, Brazilian incubated and graduated software developing enterprises. The chosen research method was the Survey type. Multivariate statistical methods were used for the treatment and analysis of the obtained results, this way identifying the most significant factors, that is, enterprise's achievement constraining factors and those outcome achievement ones. Among the latter we highlight the knowledge methodology, the time of existence of the enterprise, the amount of employees and the knowledge externalization. The results encourage contributing actions to the increasing of financial revenue. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.

Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion

Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdos-Renyi network models where each node, representing a bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use a dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure -systemic risk- quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided into sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either i) assets or ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure p and threshold T-h ("solvency" parameter). The systemic risk decreases with the average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller T-h), the smaller the systemic risk -for some Th values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic ii) controlled by probability p(2) -a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochasticthe- systemic risk decreases with decreasing p(2). We analyse the asset allocation for the U.S. banks. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2014