Valores econômicos para as características de produção de leite de búfalas no Estado de São Paulo

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modelo bioeconômico para cálculo de custos e receitas em sistemas de produção de gado de corte visando à obtenção de valores econômicos de características produtivas e reprodutivas

Foi desenvolvido um modelo bioeconômico para o cálculo do desempenho, dos custos e das receitas para obtenção de valores econômicos de características de interesse econômico em sistemas de produção de gado de corte no Brasil. As informações de desempenho e de parâmetros biológicos e econômicos foram obtidas em uma propriedade de gado Nelore que realiza ciclo completo com venda de reprodutores. O modelo é determinístico e estático e foram usadas planilhas Excel para a realização dos cálculos. Com base nas informações originais, foram simulados dois sistemas de produção, um fazendo o ciclo completo com venda de reprodutores (CcoR) e o outro, de cria (Cc). Foram calculados os custos e as receitas para esses dois sistemas e, a partir disto, foram obtidos seus lucros anuais. Para o cálculo dos valores econômicos foram escolhidas as características peso à desmama (PD), peso adulto da vaca (PAV), taxa de prenhez (TP) e taxa de desmama (TD), que são de interesse nos dois sistemas de produção. Para avaliar o impacto das mudanças no desempenho das características sobre o lucro anual do sistema de produção, os valores iniciais das características foram aumentados em 1%. Esse aumento resultou em mudanças positivas no lucro, observando-se que a TD foi a característica que apresentou maior impacto nos dois sistemas. Para o CcoR, os valores econômicos para PD, PAV, TP e TD foram, respectivamente, R$ 0,40/kg, R$ 0,09/kg, R$ 3,20/1% e R$ 10,15/1%. Para Cc, estes valores foram, respectivamente, de R$ 1,31/kg, R$ 0,09/kg, R$ 2,41/1% e R$ 3,36/1%. O modelo foi capaz de reproduzir satisfatoriamente o sistema de produção de gado de corte estudado e pode ser adaptado para outras circunstâncias de produção.

Objetivos de seleção e valores econômicos em sistemas de produção de gado de corte no Brasil

A importância econômica de possíveis características biológicas a serem incluídas em objetivos de seleção para diferentes sistemas de produção de bovinos da raça Nelore, mediante o cálculo dos seus valores econômicos foi avaliada nesta pesquisa. Com base em informações de desempenho e parâmetros biológicos e econômicos, foram simulados diferentes sistemas de produção (ciclos de cria e completo) para dois rebanhos. O rebanho 1, com ciclo de cria (Ccr), ciclo completo (Cco) e ciclo completo com venda de reprodutores (CcoR), é um rebanho elite no qual é desenvolvido um programa seleção. Parte deste rebanho é também destinada à produção de animais comerciais. O rebanho 2 é um rebanho exclusivamente comercial, com Ccr e Cco. Os valores econômicos foram calculados usando-se um modelo bio-econômico, para as seguintes características: peso (PD) e taxa de desmama (TD), peso da vaca adulta (PVA), ganho médio diário no confinamento (GMD), pesos ao abate (PA) e de carcaça (PC), peso final dos tourinhos (PFT), rendimento de carcaça (RC) e consumo alimentar no confinamento (CAc) e em pastagem (CAp). Para os sistemas de ciclo completo e de ciclo completo com venda de reprodutores e CcoR (Cco e CcoR), os valores econômicos variaram de R$ 0,34 a R$ 0,40 para PD, R$ 3,51 a R$ 10,15 para TD, -R$ 0,16 a R$ 0,09 para PAV, R$ 0,32 a R$ 0,76 para GMDc, R$ 1,09 a R$ 1,17 para PA; R$ 2,03 a R$ 2,19 para PC, R$ 23,89 a R$ 28,61 para RC, e R$ 11,85 para PFT, - R$0,45 para CAc e - R$ 0,03 para CAp. A taxa de desmama e o rendimento de carcaça foram as características de maior impacto no lucro anual dos dois rebanhos. As análises de sensibilidade demonstraram que, de modo geral, possíveis mudanças nos preços de insumos e produtos influenciariam de forma mais significativa os valores econômicos nos sistemas de produção nos quais esses preços eram mais elevados nas situações básicas.

Estimativas de herdabilidade e proposição de índices de seleção em Hereford no Rio Grande do Sul

A total of 8,064 records from weaning weights and conformation scores traits of calves nearly seven month-old were studied. The study included animals from 22 herds from state of Rio Grande do Sul, borned from 1973 to 1985 which were raised on pastures. The weaning weight adjusted to 205-day weight and fat deposition and the relation size-length of body were scored subjectively in a scale from zero to ten. The dates 205-day weight, fat deposition and relation size-length of body were 137.00 +/- .20 kg; 6.38 +/- 01 and 6.77 +/- 01 grades, respectively. The heritability estimates were .25 +/- .03, .38 +/- 04 and .37 +/- 04, respectively. The selection index was more efficient than direct phenotypic selection and this study also indicates that general selection index is not adequated to use it in all farms, and it is not necessary to have accurate economic values. The most important parameters to get good selection are reliable estimates of genetic and phenotypic variances and covariances.

Estimates of genetic parameters and eigenvector indices for milk production of Holstein cows

The objectives of the present study were to estimate genetic parameters of monthly test-day milk yield (TDMY) of the first lactation of Brazilian Holstein cows using random regression (RR), and to compare the genetic gains for milk production and persistency, derived from RR models, using eigenvector indices and selection indices that did not consider eigenvectors. The data set contained monthly TDMY of 3,543 first lactations of Brazilian Holstein cows calving between 1994 and 2011. The RR model included the fixed effect of the contemporary group (herd-month-year of test days), the covariate calving age (linear and quadratic effects), and a fourth-order regression on Legendre orthogonal polynomials of days in milk (DIM) to model the population-based mean curve. Additive genetic and nongenetic animal effects were fit as RR with 4 classes of residual variance random effect. Eigenvector indices based on the additive genetic RR covariance matrix were used to evaluate the genetic gains of milk yield and persistency compared with the traditional selection index (selection index based on breeding values of milk yield until 305 DIM). The heritability estimates for monthly TDMY ranged from 0.12 ± 0.04 to 0.31 ± 0.04. The estimates of additive genetic and nongenetic animal effects correlation were close to 1 at adjacent monthly TDMY, with a tendency to diminish as the time between DIM classes increased. The first eigenvector was related to the increase of the genetic response of the milk yield and the second eigenvector was related to the increase of the genetic gains of the persistency but it contributed to decrease the genetic gains for total milk yield. Therefore, using this eigenvector to improve persistency will not contribute to change the shape of genetic curve pattern. If the breeding goal is to improve milk production and persistency, complete sequential eigenvector indices (selection indices composite with all eigenvectors) could be used with higher economic values for persistency. However, if the breeding goal is to improve only milk yield, the traditional selection index is indicated. © 2013 American Dairy Science Association.

Estimativas de valores econômicos para sistemas de recria e engorda de bovinos Nelore e cruzados

Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV

Valor econômico e impacto da seleção para precocidade reprodutiva de fêmeas na raça Nelore

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Modelagem estatística do frete da madeira no Uruguai

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Economic-statistical design of the (X)over-bar chart used to control a wandering process mean using genetic algorithm

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A bio-economic appraisal of pair trawl fisheries off southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Simulation and economic analysis of bovine sex selection

A simulation model implemented in the programming software Delphi XE® was applied to evaluate sex selection in bovine. The hypothesis under investigation was that a dynamic model with stochastic and deterministic elements could detect the sexed semen technique to minimize pregnancy cost and to determine the adequate number of recipients required for in vivo (ET) and in vitro embryo production (IVP) in the proposed scenarios. Sex selection was compared through semen sexed using flow cytometry (C1) and density gradient centrifugation techniques (C2) in ET and IVP. Sensibility analyses were used to identify the adequate number of recipients for each scenario. This number was reinserted into the model to determine the biological and financial values that maximized ET and IVP using sexed semen (C1M and C2M). New scenarios showed that the density gradient technique minimized pregnancy cost based on the proposed scenarios. In addition, the adequate number of recipients (ET - C1M - 115 and C2M - 105)/(IVP - C1M - 145 and C2M - 140) per donor used was determined to minimize the pregnancy cost in all scenarios.

Economic design of two-stage (X)over-bar charts: the Markov chain approach

When the (X) over bar chart is in use, samples are regularly taken from the process, and their means are plotted on the chart. In some cases, it is too expensive to obtain the X values, but not the values of a correlated variable Y. This paper presents a model for the economic design of a two-stage control chart, that is. a control chart based on both performance (X) and surrogate (Y) variables. The process is monitored by the surrogate variable until it signals an out-of-control behavior, and then a switch is made to the (X) over bar chart. The (X) over bar chart is built with central, warning. and action regions. If an X sample mean falls in the central region, the process surveillance returns to the (Y) over bar chart. Otherwise. The process remains under the (X) over bar chart's surveillance until an (X) over bar sample mean falls outside the control limits. The search for an assignable cause is undertaken when the performance variable signals an out-of-control behavior. In this way, the two variables, are used in an alternating fashion. The assumption of an exponential distribution to describe the length of time the process remains in control allows the application of the Markov chain approach for developing the cost function. A study is performed to examine the economic advantages of using performance and surrogate variables. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic design of (X)over-bar charts with variable parameters: the Markov chain approach

This paper presents an economic design of (X) over bar control charts with variable sample sizes, variable sampling intervals, and variable control limits. The sample size n, the sampling interval h, and the control limit coefficient k vary between minimum and maximum values, tightening or relaxing the control. The control is relaxed when an (X) over bar value falls close to the target and is tightened when an (X) over bar value falls far from the target. A cost model is constructed that involves the cost of false alarms, the cost of finding and eliminating the assignable cause, the cost associated with production in an out-of-control state, and the cost of sampling and testing. The assumption of an exponential distribution to describe the length of time the process remains in control allows the application of the Markov chain approach for developing the cost function. A comprehensive study is performed to examine the economic advantages of varying the (X) over bar chart parameters.

Economic design of a Vp X̄ chart

We develop an economic model for X̄ control charts having all design parameters varying in an adaptive way, that is, in real time considering current sample information. In the proposed model, each of the design parameters can assume two values as a function of the most recent process information. The cost function is derived and it provides a device for optimal selection of the design parameters. Through a numerical example one can foresee the savings that the developed model possibly provides. © 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A preliminary physicochemical, exergetic and economic study of hydrogen production utilizing glycerol

This work has as objective to demonstrate technical and economic viability of hydrogen production utilizing glycerol. The volume of this substance, which was initially produced by synthetic ways (from oil-derived products), has increased dramatically due mainly to biodiesel production through transesterification process which has glycerol as main residue. The surplus amount of glycerol has been generally utilized to feed poultry or as fuel in boilers, beyond other applications such as production of soaps, chemical products for food industry, explosives, and others. The difficulty to allocate this additional amount of glycerol has become it in an enormous environment problem, in contrary to the objective of biodiesel chain, which is to diminish environmental impact substituting oil and its derivatives, which release more emissions than biofuels, do not contribute to CO2-cycle and are not renewable sources. Beyond to utilize glycerol in combustion processes, this material could be utilized for hydrogen production. However, a small quantity of works (theoretical and experimental) and reports concerning this theme could be encountered. Firstly, the produced glycerol must be purified since non-reacted amounts of materials, inclusively catalysts, contribute to deactivate catalysts utilized in hydrogen production processes. The volume of non-reacted reactants and non-utilized catalysts during transesterification process could be reutilized. Various technologies of thermochemical generation of hydrogen that utilizes glycerol (and other fuels) were evaluated and the greatest performances and their conditions are encountered as soon as the most efficient technology of hydrogen production. Firstly, a physicochemical analysis must be performed. This step has as objective to evaluate the necessary amount of reactants to produce a determined volume of hydrogen and determine thermodynamic conditions (such as temperature and pressure) where the major performances of hydrogen production could be encountered. The calculations are based on the process where advance degrees are found and hence, fractions of products (especially hydrogen, however, CO2, CO, CH4 and solid carbon could be also encountered) are calculated. To produce 1 Nm3/h of gaseous hydrogen (necessary for a PEMFC - Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell - containing an electric efficiency of about 40%, to generate 1 kWh), 0,558 kg/h of glycerol is necessary in global steam reforming, 0,978 kg/h of glycerol in partial oxidation and cracking processes, and 0,782 kg/h of glycerol in autothermal reforming process. The dry reforming process could not be performed to produce hydrogen utilizing glycerol, in contrary to the utilization of methane, ethanol, and other hydrocarbons. In this study, steam reforming process was preferred due mainly to higher efficiencies of production and the need of minor amount of glycerol as cited above. In the global steam reforming of glycerine, for one mole of glycerol, three moles of water are necessary to produce three moles of CO2 and seven moles of H2. The response reactions process was utilized to predict steam reforming process more accurately. In this mean, the production of solid carbon, CO, and CH4, beyond CO2 and hydrogen was predicted. However, traces of acetaldehyde (C2H2), ethylene (C2H4), ethylene glycol, acetone, and others were encountered in some experimental studies. The rates of determined products obviously depend on the adopted catalysts (and its physical and chemical properties) and thermodynamic conditions of hydrogen production. Eight reactions of steam reforming and cracking were predicted considering only the determined products. In the case of steam reforming at 600°C, the advance degree of this reactor could attain its maximum value, i.e., overall volume of reactants could be obtained whether this reaction is maintained at 1 atm. As soon as temperature of this reaction increases the advance degree also increase, in contrary to the pressure, where advance degree decrease as soon as pressure increase. The fact of temperature of reforming is relatively small, lower costs of installation could be attained, especially cheaper thermocouples and smaller amount of thermo insulators and materials for its assembling. Utilizing the response reactions process in steam reforming, the predicted volumes of products, for the production of 1 Nm3/h of H2 and thermodynamic conditions as cited previously, were 0,264 kg/h of CO (13% of molar fraction of reaction products), 0,038 kg/h of CH4 (3% of molar fraction), 0,028 kg/h of C (3% of molar fraction), and 0,623 kg/h of CO2 (20% of molar fraction). Through process of water-gas shift reactions (WGSR) an additional amount of hydrogen could be produced utilizing mainly the volumes of produced CO and CH4. The overall results (steam reforming plus WGSR) could be similar to global steam reforming. An attention must to be taking into account due to the possibility to produce an additional amount of CH4 (through methanation process) and solid carbon (through Boudouard process). The production of solid carbon must to be avoided because this reactant diminishes (filling the pores) and even deactivate active area of catalysts. To avoid solid carbon production, an additional amount of water is suggested. This method could be also utilized to diminish the volume of CO (through WGSR process) since this product is prejudicial for the activity of low temperature fuel cells (such as PEMFC). In some works, more three or even six moles of water are suggested. A net energy balance of studied hydrogen production processes (at 1 atm only) was developed. In this balance, low heat value of reactant and products and utilized energy for the process (heat supply) were cited. In the case of steam reforming utilizing response reactions, global steam reforming, and cracking processes, the maximum net energy was detected at 700°C. Partial oxidation and autothermal reforming obtained negative net energy in all cited temperatures despite to be exothermic reactions. For global steam reforming, the major value was 114 kJ/h. In the case of steam reforming, the highest value of net energy was detected in this temperature (-170 kJ/h). The major values were detected in the cracking process (up to 2586 kJ/h). The exergetic analysis has as objective, associated with physicochemical analysis, to determine conditions where reactions could be performed at higher efficiencies with lower losses. This study was performed through calculations of exergetic and rational efficiencies, and irreversibilities. In this analysis, as in the previously performed physicochemical analysis, conditions such as temperature of 600°C and pressure of 1 atm for global steam reforming process were suggested due to lower irreversibility and higher efficiencies. Subsequently, higher irreversibilities and lower efficiencies were detected in autothermal reforming, partial oxidation and cracking process. Comparing global reaction of steam reforming with more-accurate steam reforming, it was verified that efficiencies were diminished and irreversibilities were increased. These results could be altered with introduction of WGSR process. An economic analysis could be performed to evaluate the cost of generated hydrogen and determine means to diminish the costs. This analysis suggests an annual period of operation between 5000-7000 hours, interest rates of up to 20% per annum (considering Brazilian conditions), and pay-back of up to 20 years. Another considerations must to be take into account such as tariffs of utilized glycerol and electricity (to be utilized as heat source and (or) for own process as pumps, lamps, valves, and other devices), installation (estimated as US$ 15.000 for a plant of 1 Nm3/h) and maintenance cost. The adoption of emission trading schemes such as carbon credits could be performed since this is a process with potential of mitigates environment impact. Not considering credit carbons, the minor cost of calculated H2 was 0,16288 US$/kWh if glycerol is also utilized as heat sources and 0,17677 US$/kWh if electricity is utilized as heat sources. The range of considered tariff of glycerol was 0-0,1 US$/kWh (taking as basis LHV of H2) and the tariff of electricity is US$ 0,0867 US$/kWh, with demand cost of 12,49 US$/kW. The costs of electricity were obtained by Companhia Bandeirante, localized in São Paulo State. The differences among costs of hydrogen production utilizing glycerol and electricity as heat source was in a range between 0,3-5,8%. This technology in this moment is not mature. However, it allows the employment generation with the additional utilization of glycerol, especially with plants associated with biodiesel plants. The produced hydrogen and electricity could be utilized in own process, increasing its final performance.