The role of clouds in improving the regression model for hourly values of diffuse solar radiation

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Correlation models of diffuse solar-radiation applied to the city of São Paulo, Brazil

Measurements of global and diffuse solar-radiation, at the Earth's surface, carried out from May 1994 to June 1999 in São Paulo City, Brazil, were used to develop correlation models to estimate hourly, daily and monthly values of diffuse solar-radiation on horizontal surfaces. The polynomials derived by linear regression fitting were able to model satisfactorily the daily and monthly values of diffuse radiation. The comparison with models derived for other places demonstrates some differences related mainly to altitude effects. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new shadow-ring device for measuring diffuse solar radiation at the surface

A new shadow-ring device for measuring diffuse solar radiation at the surface is presented. In this device the seasonal variation of shadow is followed by moving the detector horizontally. This unique characteristic facilitates its application for long and continuous periods of time. The blocking effect caused by the ring and other related geometric properties are formulated considering the diffuse solar radiation isotropic. The correction factor, shadow size, and ring-detector distance are derived as a function of radius and width of the ring, sun position, and local latitude. The largest blocking occurs during summer, when the ring-detector distance and the shadow width are the smallest, and it is compensated by a smaller blocking effect in the winter period. The performance of the new device is verified comparing daily values of diffuse solar radiation measured simultaneously with a similar device from Kipp & Zonen, Inc. The results show a very good agreement (within 2.5%) between both devices. The new device was also able to reproduce the radiometric properties of the local atmosphere based on 3-yr-long measurements of direct solar radiation using a pyrheliometer. The new device can be applied to estimate daily values of diffuse solar radiation at the surface in the range of 30degreesN-30degreesS with results comparable to other similar apparatuses.

Modeling hourly diffuse solar-radiation in the city of São Paulo using a neural-network technique

dIn this work, a perceptron neural-network technique is applied to estimate hourly values of the diffuse solar-radiation at the surface in São Paulo City, Brazil, using as input the global solar-radiation and other meteorological parameters measured from 1998 to 2001. The neural-network verification was performed using the hourly measurements of diffuse solar-radiation obtained during the year 2002. The neural network was developed based on both feature determination and pattern selection techniques. It was found that the inclusion of the atmospheric long-wave radiation as input improves the neural-network performance. on the other hand traditional meteorological parameters, like air temperature and atmospheric pressure, are not as important as long-wave radiation which acts as a surrogate for cloud-cover information on the regional scale. An objective evaluation has shown that the diffuse solar-radiation is better reproduced by neural network synthetic series than by a correlation model. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diurnal evolution of the hourly diffuse solar radiation incident on tilted surfaces in Southeast of Brazil

Evaluation has been made on the monthly and annual average diurnal evolution of the hourly diffuse radiation as well as its radiometric fractions on surfaces inclined at 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85° to face North, in climate conditions of Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil (22.85° S and 48.43° W). Measurements were made between 04/1998 to 08/2001 for 22.85°; 09/2001 to 02/2003 for 12.85° and 01/2004 to 12/2007 for 32.85°, with concomitant measures in the horizontal. For all surfaces the diffuse radiation was obtained from different method. Assessment has been performed as well on the radiometric fractions obtained from the ratio of diffuse radiation and global radiation (KDH and KDβ) and between radiation and diffuse radiation at the top of the atmosphere (KʹDH and KʹDβ) for the horizontal and tilted surfaces in hourly partition. The diffuse radiation levels were dependent on variations in precipitation and cloudiness. There was an increase in the differences between the diffuse radiation and the radiometric fractions with the increment of the angle, and in horizontally, which affected higher levels of diffuse radiation in spring and summer. The values of KDH and KDβ present in an inverse behavior were compared to diffuse radiation and theydecreased in the southern passage due to the increase of the direct component in the total of incident radiation.

Global and diffuse solar irradiances in urban and rural areas in southeast Brazil

The seasonal evolution of daily and hourly values of global and diffuse solar radiation at the surface are compared for the cities of São Paulo and Botucatu, both located in Southeast Brazil and representative of urban and rural areas, respectively. The comparisons are based on measurements of global and diffuse solar irradiance carried out at the surface during a six year simultaneous period in these two cities. Despite the similar latitude and altitude, the seasonal evolution of daily values indicate that São Paulo receives, during clear sky days, 7.8% less global irradiance in August and 5.1% less in June than Botucatu. on the other hand, São Paulo receives, during clear sky days, 3.6% more diffuse irradiance in August and 15.6% more in June than Botucatu. The seasonal variation of the diurnal cycle confirms these differences and indicates that they are more pronounced during the afternoon. The regional differences are related to the distance from the Atlantic Ocean, systematic penetration of the sea breeze and daytime evolution of the particulate matter in São Paulo. An important mechanism controlling the spatial distribution of solar radiation, on a regional scale, is the sea breeze penetration in São Paulo, bringing moisture and maritime aerosol that in turn further increases the solar radiation scattering due to pollution and further reduces the intensity of the direct component of solar radiation at the surface. Surprisingly, under clear sky conditions the atmospheric attenuation of solar radiation in Botucatu during winter - the biomass burning period due to the sugar cane harvest - is equivalent to that at São Paulo City, indicating that the contamination during sugar cane harvest in Southeast Brazil has a large impact in the solar radiation field at the surface.

Diurnal evolution of solar radiation at the surface in the city of São Paulo: Seasonal variation and modeling

Seasonal variations in the diurnal evolution of the global, diffuse and direct solar radiation at the surface, the clearness index, diffuse fraction and direct fraction are described in detail for the City of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The description is based on measurements of global and diffuse solar radiation carried out over 5.25 years. The diffuse component was measured with a shadow-band device. The annual evolution of the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of all radiometric parameters indicates a seasonal pattern with two distinct periods: autumn-winter and spring-summer. About 10% of the observed period was characterized by clear sky days. This seasonal variation is determined by a larger incidence of clear sky days in the autumn-winter period. Reductions of up to 10% in hourly and daily values of global radiation were observed in conjunction with an increase in particulate matter concentration on clear sky days. The pollution effect may be responsible for the discrepancy, of 16%, found between local and more regional estimates of global solar radiation in Sao Paulo. The diurnal evolution of hourly values of monthly-averaged global and diffuse solar radiation were successfully estimated by the empirical expressions derived here. Daily values of monthly-averaged global solar radiation were satisfactorily estimated using the Angstrom expression.

Analysis of hourly global, direct and diffuse solar radiations attenuation as a function of optical air mass

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modelling frequency distributions of 5 minute-averaged solar radiation indexes using Beta probability functions

Five minute-averaged values of sky clearness, direct and diffuse indices, were used to model the frequency distributions of these variables in terms of optical air mass. From more than four years of solar radiation observations it was found that variations in the frequency distributions of the three indices of optical air mass for Botucatu, Brazil, are similar to those in other places, as published in the literature. The proposed models were obtained by linear combination of normalized Beta probability functions, using the observed distributions derived from three years of data. The versatility of these functions allows modelling of all three irradiance indexes to similar levels of accuracy. A comparison with the observed distributions obtained from one year of observations indicate that the models are able to reproduce the observed frequency distributions of all three indices at the 95% confidence level.

Annual and monthly mean global, direct and diffuse solar irradiation in Botucatu/SP/Brazil

This paper presents a climatic and statistical analysis of global, direct horizontal and diffuse radiation from a database of solar radiation measured from 1996 to 2006 in the city of Botucatu, SP, Brazil. Variation intervals of hourly and daily irradiation, annual mean 〈H̄G〉, 〈H̄bh〉 and 〈H̄d〉 irradiation, monthly mean 〈H̄G〉, 〈H̄ bh〉 and 〈H̄d〉 irradiation and monthly mean 〈K̄t〉, 〈K̄bh〉 and 〈K̄d〉 fractions were determined. Results showed that values of hourly and daily annual mean irradiation were as follows: 〈H̄G〉=1.49MJ/m2 and 〈H̄ G〉=17.74MJ/m2; 〈H̄bh〉=0. 90MJ/m2 and 〈H̄bh〉=10.33MJ/m2 and 〈H̄d〉=0.57 MJ/m2 and 〈H̄d〉=7.09MJ/m2, respectively. Variation intervals of hourly monthly mean irradiation were as follows: 〈H̄G〉 ranged from 1.65MJ/m2 in March to 1.16MJ/m2 in June; 〈H̄bh〉 ranged from 1.06MJ/m2 in April to 0.79MJ/m2 in June, and 〈H̄d〉 ranged from 0.70MJ/m2 in January to 0.37MJ/m2 in June and July. Similarly, daily 〈H̄ G〉 irradiation ranged from 21.35MJ/m2 in November to 12.94MJ/m2 in June; 〈H̄bh〉 ranged from 11.83MJ/m2 in April to 8.49MJ/m2 in June, and 〈H̄d〉 ranged from 10.29MJ/m2 in December to 4.38MJ/m2 in June. Variation intervals of hourly monthly mean fractions were as follows: 〈K̄t〉 ranged from 43.5% in January to 54.2% in April; 〈K̄bh〉 ranged from 33.6% in January to 58.0% in April and 〈K̄d〉 ranged from 66.4% in January to 42.0% in April. In the same way, daily 〈K̄ t〉 fractions ranged from 45.5% in January to 59.8% in August; 〈K̄bh〉 ranged from 38.9% in January to 62.0% in August and 〈K̄d〉 ranged from 61.1% in January to 37.7% in July.

Numerical correction for the diffuse solar irradiance by the melo-escobedo shadowring measuring method

The present paper deals with numerical corrections factors proposed as a function of the clearness index in order to correct the diffuse solar irradiance measured with the Melo-Escobedo Shadowring Measuring Method (ME shadowring). The global irradiance was measured by an Eppley - PSP pyranometer ; direct normal irradiance by an Eppley-NIP pyrheliometer fitted to a ST-3 sun tracking device and the diffuse irradiance by an Eppley-PSP pyranometer fitted to a ME shadowring. The validations were performed by the MBE and RMSE statistical indicators. The results showed that the numerical correction factors were appropriate to correct the shadowring diffuse irradiance.

Ratios of UV, PAR and NIR components to global solar radiation measured at Botucatu site in Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estimativas das componentes da radiação solar incidente em superfícies inclinadas baseadas na radiação global horizontal

Statistics equations and validations with groups of annual and monthly data were evaluated for global, direct and diffuse solar radiation components incident on the tilted surface to 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85 degrees with the face North, in climate and geographical conditions of Botucatu, SP. It was employed the fractions of three components of extraterrestrial radiation in correlation with the coefficient clearness index horizontal plane, in a database of April/1998 to December/2007, whose measures at different periods in three inclinations, however concomitant to the horizontal plane. Increasing the angle of the surface led to increased scattering of the daily values of clearness index for inclined and horizontal surfaces. In annual groups, the lower performances were observed in the estimation of inclined daily diffuse radiation, with maximum Root Mean Square Error to 3.89 MJ m(-2) d(-1) (43.65%) and adjustments around 62%. In estimates of global and direct components of solar radiation on inclined planes, both annual and monthly equations can be applied, with performance dependents to climatic conditions.

Spacecraft's attitude prediction: solar radiation torque and the Earth's shadow

A semi-analytical approach is proposed to study the rotational motion of an artificial satellite, under the influence of torque due to the solar radiation pressure, and taking into account the influence of Earth's shadow. Using Andoyer variables the equations for the rotational motion are presented in extended Hamiltonian form. In order to get a solution for the state variables close to an actual motion, the considered model for the shadow function takes into account physical and geometric factors and three specific regions: shadow, penumbra and full light. A mapping for the shadow function is proposed and a semi-analytical process is applied. When the satellite is totally illuminated or it is inside the penumbra, a known analytical solution is used to compute the satellite's attitude. A numerical simulation shows, when the penumbra region is included, the attenuation of the rotational motion during the transition from the shadow to the illuminate region and vice versa. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Orbit determination using GPS including perturbations due to geopotential coefficients of high degree and order and solar radiation pressure

The main target here is to determine the orbit of an artificial satellite, using signals of the GPS constellation and least squares algorithms implemented through sequential Givens rotations as a method of estimation, with the aim of improving the performance of the orbit estimation process and, at the same time, minimizing the computational procedure cost. Geopotential perturbations up to high order and direct solar radiation pressure were taken into account. It was also considered the position of the GPS antenna on the satellite body that, lately, consists of the influence of the satellite attitude motion in the orbit determination process. An application has been done, using real data from the Topex/Poseidon satellite, whose ephemeris is available at Internet. The best accuracy obtained in position was smaller than 5 meters for short period (2 hours) and smaller than 28 meters for long period (24 hours) orbit determination. In both cases, the perturbations mentioned before were taken into consideration and the analysis occurred without selective availability on the signals measurements.