Logistic regression analysis of potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism

Objective: To identify potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE), establishing a mathematical model to predict the risk for fatal PTE and nonfatal PTE.Method: the reports on 4,813 consecutive autopsies performed from 1979 to 1998 in a Brazilian tertiary referral medical school were reviewed for a retrospective study. From the medical records and autopsy reports of the 512 patients found with macroscopically and/or microscopically,documented PTE, data on demographics, underlying diseases, and probable PTE site of origin were gathered and studied by multiple logistic regression. Thereafter, the jackknife method, a statistical cross-validation technique that uses the original study patients to validate a clinical prediction rule, was performed.Results: the autopsy rate was 50.2%, and PTE prevalence was 10.6%. In 212 cases, PTE was the main cause of death (fatal PTE). The independent variables selected by the regression significance criteria that were more likely to be associated with fatal PTE were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03), trauma (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 2.20 to 32.81), right-sided cardiac thrombi (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.77), pelvic vein thrombi (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.19 to 10.05); those most likely to be associated with nonfatal PTE were systemic arterial hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.80), pneumonia (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.71), and sepsis (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.40). The results obtained from the application of the equation in the 512 cases studied using logistic regression analysis suggest the range in which logit p > 0.336 favors the occurrence of fatal PTE, logit p < - 1.142 favors nonfatal PTE, and logit P with intermediate values is not conclusive. The cross-validation prediction misclassification rate was 25.6%, meaning that the prediction equation correctly classified the majority of the cases (74.4%).Conclusions: Although the usefulness of this method in everyday medical practice needs to be confirmed by a prospective study, for the time being our results suggest that concerning prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PTE, strict attention should be given to those patients presenting the variables that are significant in the logistic regression model.

Abordagem diagnóstica dos pacientes com suspeita de trombose venosa profunda dos membros inferiores

Deep venous thrombosis is a relatively common disease, which can present pulmonary embolism as a complication in its acute phase, and later the post-thrombotic syndrome. Thus, diagnosis should be made as soon as possible, in order to prevent or minimize such complications. Several studies have shown that the symptoms and the clinical signs are inaccurate for the deep venous thrombosis diagnosis and that complementary exams are necessary. As an attempt to simplify the patients' assessment, Well et al., in 1997, developed a clinical prediction index that combines symptoms, signs and risk factors for deep venous thrombosis and managed to make a simpler approach through an association of this index with the complementary exams. Phlebography has been considered the gold standard of complementary exams. However, since it is an invasive exam and thus subject to complications, other diagnostic methods were introduced aiming at making the diagnostic approach simpler and less invasive. Doppler ultrasound, duplex scan, impedance plethysmography, computed tomography, and blood tests such as the D-dimer are some of the available methods for assessing the patient with suspicion of deep venous thrombosis. Among them, duplex scan has shown excellent accuracy and it is currently widely accepted as the first choice test for approaching the patient with deep venous thrombosis. Several authors have suggested an association of diagnostic methods to simplify and make the assessment of such patients more cost-effective, leading to the introduction of a wide range of diagnostic strategies. The different diagnostic methods used for assessing deep venous thrombosis are discussed, as well as a review of the literature on the accuracy, advantages and disadvantages of these methods. Copyright © 2005 by Sociedade Brasileira de Angiologia e Cirurgia Vascular.

Mild cognitive impairment (part 2): Biological markers for diagnosis and prediction of dementia in Alzheimer's disease

To present a critical review of publications reporting on the rationale and clinical implications of the use of biomarkers for the early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Methods: We conducted a systematic search of the PubMed and Web of Science electronic databases, limited to articles published in English between 1999 and 2012, and based on the following terms: mild cognitive impairment, Alzheimer's disease OR dementia, biomarkers. We retrieved 1,130 articles, of which 175 were reviews. Overall, 955 original articles were eligible. Results: The following points were considered relevant for the present review: a) rationale for biomarkers research in AD and mild cognitive impairment (MCI); b) usefulness of distinct biomarkers for the diagnosis and prediction of AD; c) the role of multimodality biomarkers for the diagnosis and prediction of AD; d) the role of biomarkers in clinical trials of patients with AD and MCI; and e) current limitations to the widespread use of biomarkers in research and clinical settings. Conclusion: Different biomarkers are useful for the early diagnosis and prediction of AD in at-risk subjects. Nonetheless, important methodological limitations need to be overcome for widespread use of biomarkers in research and clinical settings. © 2013 Associação Brasileira de Psiquiatria.