Time series analysis for minority game simulations of financial markets

The minority game (MG) model introduced recently provides promising insights into the understanding of the evolution of prices, indices and rates in the financial markets. In this paper we perform a time series analysis of the model employing tools from statistics, dynamical systems theory and stochastic processes. Using benchmark systems and a financial index for comparison, several conclusions are obtained about the generating mechanism for this kind of evolution. The motion is deterministic, driven by occasional random external perturbation. When the interval between two successive perturbations is sufficiently large, one can find low dimensional chaos in this regime. However, the full motion of the MG model is found to be similar to that of the first differences of the SP500 index: stochastic, nonlinear and (unit root) stationary. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulation and economic analysis of bovine sex selection

A simulation model implemented in the programming software Delphi XE® was applied to evaluate sex selection in bovine. The hypothesis under investigation was that a dynamic model with stochastic and deterministic elements could detect the sexed semen technique to minimize pregnancy cost and to determine the adequate number of recipients required for in vivo (ET) and in vitro embryo production (IVP) in the proposed scenarios. Sex selection was compared through semen sexed using flow cytometry (C1) and density gradient centrifugation techniques (C2) in ET and IVP. Sensibility analyses were used to identify the adequate number of recipients for each scenario. This number was reinserted into the model to determine the biological and financial values that maximized ET and IVP using sexed semen (C1M and C2M). New scenarios showed that the density gradient technique minimized pregnancy cost based on the proposed scenarios. In addition, the adequate number of recipients (ET - C1M - 115 and C2M - 105)/(IVP - C1M - 145 and C2M - 140) per donor used was determined to minimize the pregnancy cost in all scenarios.

Analysis of artisanal fisheries in two reservoirs of the upper Paraná River basin (Southeastern Brazil)

We compared the artisanal fisheries, in terms of catch strategies, productivity, and gross per capita income, at two reservoirs: The Barra Bonita (an eutrophic reservoir with some introduced species), and the Jurumirim (an oligotrophic reservoir, with no introduced species). Published data and structured interviews with fishers were used to evaluate fishing activity, fish biomass, and the financial performance of the fisheries. In the Barra Bonita Reservoir we analysed data from 745 fishing trips, from which 86,691.9 kg of fish were landed, with a mean CPUE of 62.4 kg/fisher-1 day-1. The main type of fish caught was tilapia (71,513.5 kg; CPUE of 51.5 kg/fisher-1 day-1), which constituted 82.5% of the biomass caught. In the Jurumirim Reservoir, we analysed data from 2,401 fishing trips, from which 25,093.6 kg of fish were landed, with a mean CPUE of 10.4 kg/fisher-1 day-1. The main type of fish caught was traíra (6,158.6 kg; CPUE of 2.6 kg/fisher-1 day-1), which constituted 24.5% of the biomass caught. Ordination analysis (PCA) indicated that there was a difference in composition between the fishing reservoirs and ANCOVA showed that there was a significant difference in fish production between the reservoirs. A Student's t-test showed that fishers in the Barra Bonita Reservoir had a significantly higher gross per capita income than those from the Jurumirim Reservoir. Although the Barra Bonita Reservoir has a higher fish production and the fishers earn a higher gross per capita income, we recommend the Jurumirim Reservoir as a model for artisanal fishery management because fishing activity in this reservoir is viable in the long term and such a model would promote conservation and sustainability. This contrasts with the Barra Bonita Reservoir, in which the fishery is not viable in the long term, due to environmental problems caused by artificial eutrophication and the introduction of alien species. It is also noted that in many countries, management of fisheries based on exotic species has not been viable in the long term. © 2013 Sociedade Brasileira de Ictiologia.