Multi-Agent Simulation of Urban Social Dynamics for Spatial Load Forecasting

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Changes in abiotic characteristics of water in the Paranapanema River and three lateral lagoons at mouth zone of the Jurumirim Reservoir during the flood period, São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The sugarcane borer Diatraea saccharalis (Fabr.) (Lep., Crambidae) and its parasitoids: a synchrony approach to spatial and temporal dynamics

A data set on Diatraea saccharalis and its parasitoids, Cotesia flavipes and tachinid flies, was analysed at five spatial scales-sugarcane mill, region, intermediary, farm and zone-to determine the role of spatial scale in synchrony patterns, and on temporal population variability. To analyse synchrony patterns, only the three highest spatial scales were considered, but for temporal population variability, all spatial scales were adopted. The synchrony-distance relationship revealed complex spatial structures depending on both species and spatial scale. Temporal population variability [SD log(x+1)] levels were highest at the smallest spatial scales although, in the majority of the cases, temporal variability was inversely dependent on sample size. All the species studied, with a few exceptions, presented spatial synchrony independent of spatial scale. The tachinid flies exhibited stronger synchrony dynamics than D. saccharalis and C. flavipes in all spatial scales with the latter displaying the weakest synchrony levels, except when mill spatial scales were compared. In some cases spatial synchrony may at first decay and then increase with distance, but the presence of such patterns can change depending on the spatial scale adopted.

Dynamics of some fictitious satellites of Venus and Mars

The dynamics of some fictitious satellites of Venus and Mars are studied considering only solar perturbation and the oblateness of the planet, as disturbing forces. Several numerical integrations of the averaged system, taking different values of the obliquity of ecliptic (a), show the existence of strong chaotic motion, provided that the semi major axis is near a critical value. As a consequence, large increase of eccentricities occur and the satellites may collide with the planet or cross possible internal orbits. Even starting from almost circular and equatorial orbits, most satellites can easily reach prohibitive values. The extension of the chaotic zone depends clearly on the value ε, so that, previous regular regions may become chaotic, provided ε increases sufficiently. © 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal distribution of Copepoda populations in the transition zone of Paranapanema River and Jurumirim Reservoir (São Paulo, Brazil) and interchange with two lateral lakes.

Longitudinal changes in composition, abundance, and distribution of copepods were studied at the transition zone of Paranapanema River-Jurumirim Reservoir (SP, Brazil). The interchange of biotic material between marginal lakes and the river system was also examined. Water samples were obtained from 6 stations along a stretch of 13 km of the Paranapanema River, from an upstream reach with high water velocity up to the river mouth into Jurumirim Reservoir. Two other sites in lateral lakes were also sampled. Nine copepod taxa were identified: 3 calanoids (Argyrodiaptomus furcatus Sars, Notodiaptomus iheringi Wright, and N. conifer Sars) and 6 cyclopoids (Eucyclops Claus, Microcyclops Claus, Mesocyclops longisetus Thiébaud, Thermocyclops decipiens Fischer, T. minutus Lowndes, and Paracyclops Claus). Harpacticoids were also collected. Calanoid and cyclopoid nauplii and copepodids, and harpacticoids were the most abundant organisms. In general, there was a longitudinal decrease in copepod abundance, whereas an increase was detected near the lakes. The abundance of most copepods was inversely correlated with current velocity and suspended solids. Higher abundance was observed in the river main course during the rainy season, during which there is a higher connectivity between the lakes and the main river. This promotes exportation of biologic material from marginal lakes to the river system, a biotic exchange reflecting the importance of marginal lakes to the river community structure.

Considering Urban Dynamics in spatial electric load forecasting

When dealing with spatio-temporal simulations of load growth inside a service zone, one of the most important problems faced by a Distribution Utility is how to represent the different relationships among different areas. A new load in a certain part of the city could modify the load growth in other parts of the city, even outside of its radius of influence. These interactions are called Urban Dynamics. This work aims to discuss how to implement Urban Dynamics considerations into the spatial electric load forecasting simulations using multi-agent simulations. To explain the approach, three examples are introduced, including the effect of an attraction load, the effect of a repulsive load, and the effect of several attraction/repulsive loads at the same time when considering the natural load growth. © 2012 IEEE.