Transmission network expansion planning considering uncertainty in generation and demand

This paper presents a mathematical model and a methodology to solve a transmission network expansion planning problem considering uncertainty in demand and generation. The methodology used to solve the problem, finds the optimal transmission network expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately in an environment with uncertainty. The model presented results in an optimization problem that is solved using a specialized genetic algorithm. The results obtained for known systems from the literature show that cheaper plans can be found satisfying the uncertainty in demand and generation. ©2008 IEEE.

Power flow for primary distribution networks considering uncertainty in demand and user connection

This paper presents a method for calculating the power flow in distribution networks considering uncertainties in the distribution system. Active and reactive power are used as uncertain variables and probabilistically modeled through probability distribution functions. Uncertainty about the connection of the users with the different feeders is also considered. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate the possible load scenarios of the users. The results of the power flow considering uncertainty are the mean values and standard deviations of the variables of interest (voltages in all nodes, active and reactive power flows, etc.), giving the user valuable information about how the network will behave under uncertainty rather than the traditional fixed values at one point in time. The method is tested using real data from a primary feeder system, and results are presented considering uncertainty in demand and also in the connection. To demonstrate the usefulness of the approach, the results are then used in a probabilistic risk analysis to identify potential problems of undervoltage in distribution systems. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transmission network expansion planning considering uncertainty in demand

This paper presents two mathematical models and one methodology to solve a transmission network expansion planning problem considering uncertainty in demand. The first model analyzed the uncertainty in the system as a whole; then, this model considers the uncertainty in the total demand of the power system. The second one analyzed the uncertainty in each load bus individually. The methodology used to solve the problem, finds the optimal transmission network expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately in an environment with uncertainty. The models presented are solved using a specialized genetic algorithm. The results obtained for several known systems from literature show that cheaper plans can be found satisfying the uncertainty in demand.

Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Quantum coherence and uncertainty in the anisotropic XY chain

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A note on model uncertainty in linear regression

We consider model selection uncertainty in linear regression. We study theoretically and by simulation the approach of Buckland and co-workers, who proposed estimating a parameter common to all models under study by taking a weighted average over the models, using weights obtained from information criteria or the bootstrap. This approach is compared with the usual approach in which the 'best' model is used, and with Bayesian model averaging. The weighted predictor behaves similarly to model averaging, with generally more realistic mean-squared errors than the usual model-selection-based estimator.

Probabilistic analysis of the distributed power generation in weakly meshed distribution systems

This paper presents an approach for probabilistic analysis of unbalanced three-phase weakly meshed distribution systems considering uncertainty in load demand. In order to achieve high computational efficiency this approach uses both an efficient method for probabilistic analysis and a radial power flow. The probabilistic approach used is the well-known Two-Point Estimate Method. Meanwhile, the compensation-based radial power flow is used in order to extract benefits from the topological characteristics of the distribution systems. The generation model proposed allows modeling either PQ or PV bus on the connection point between the network and the distributed generator. In addition allows control of the generator operating conditions, such as the field current and the power delivery at terminals. Results on test with IEEE 37 bus system is given to illustrate the operation and effectiveness of the proposed approach. A Monte Carlo Simulations method is used to validate the results. © 2011 IEEE.

Evaluation of an average numerator relationship matrix model and a Bayesian hierarchical model for growth traits in Nellore cattle with uncertain paternity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Generation of Nutrients and Detoxification: Possible Roles of Yeasts in Leaf-Cutting Ant Nests.

The possible roles played by yeasts in attine ant nests are mostly unknown. Here we present our investigations on the plant polysaccharide degradation profile of 82 yeasts isolated from fungus gardens of Atta and Acromyrmex species to demonstrate that yeasts found in ant nests may play the role of making nutrients readily available throughout the garden and detoxification of compounds that may be deleterious to the ants and their fungal cultivar. Among the yeasts screened, 65% exhibited cellulolytic enzymes, 44% exhibited pectinolytic activity while 27% and 17% possess enzyme systems for the degradation of protease and amylase, respectively. Galacturonic acid, which had been reported in previous work to be poorly assimilated by the ant fungus and also to have a negative effect on ants' survival, was assimilated by 64% and 79% of yeasts isolated from nests of A. texana and Acromyrmex respectively. Our results suggest that yeasts found in ant nests may participate in generation of nutrients and removal of potentially toxic compounds, thereby contributing to the stability of the complex microbiota found in the leaf-cutting ant nests.

Singular value analyses of voltage stability on power system considering wind generation variability

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Comparison of selective genotyping strategies for prediction of breeding values in a population undergoing selection

Genomewide marker information can improve the reliability of breeding value predictions for young selection candidates in genomic selection. However, the cost of genotyping limits its use to elite animals, and how such selective genotyping affects predictive ability of genomic selection models is an open question. We performed a simulation study to evaluate the quality of breeding value predictions for selection candidates based on different selective genotyping strategies in a population undergoing selection. The genome consisted of 10 chromosomes of 100 cM each. After 5,000 generations of random mating with a population size of 100 (50 males and 50 females), generation G(0) (reference population) was produced via a full factorial mating between the 50 males and 50 females from generation 5,000. Different levels of selection intensities (animals with the largest yield deviation value) in G(0) or random sampling (no selection) were used to produce offspring of G(0) generation (G(1)). Five genotyping strategies were used to choose 500 animals in G(0) to be genotyped: 1) Random: randomly selected animals, 2) Top: animals with largest yield deviation values, 3) Bottom: animals with lowest yield deviations values, 4) Extreme: animals with the 250 largest and the 250 lowest yield deviations values, and 5) Less Related: less genetically related animals. The number of individuals in G(0) and G(1) was fixed at 2,500 each, and different levels of heritability were considered (0.10, 0.25, and 0.50). Additionally, all 5 selective genotyping strategies (Random, Top, Bottom, Extreme, and Less Related) were applied to an indicator trait in generation G(0), and the results were evaluated for the target trait in generation G(1), with the genetic correlation between the 2 traits set to 0.50. The 5 genotyping strategies applied to individuals in G(0) (reference population) were compared in terms of their ability to predict the genetic values of the animals in G(1) (selection candidates). Lower correlations between genomic-based estimates of breeding values (GEBV) and true breeding values (TBV) were obtained when using the Bottom strategy. For Random, Extreme, and Less Related strategies, the correlation between GEBV and TBV became slightly larger as selection intensity decreased and was largest when no selection occurred. These 3 strategies were better than the Top approach. In addition, the Extreme, Random, and Less Related strategies had smaller predictive mean squared errors (PMSE) followed by the Top and Bottom methods. Overall, the Extreme genotyping strategy led to the best predictive ability of breeding values, indicating that animals with extreme yield deviations values in a reference population are the most informative when training genomic selection models.

Contributions and perspectives of chicken genomics in Brazil: from biological model to export commodity

Chicken is one of the most important sources of animal protein for human consumption, and breeding programmes have been responsible for constant improvements in production efficiency and product quality. Furthermore, chicken has largely contributed to fundamental discoveries in biology for the last 100 years. In this article we review recent developments in poultry genomics and their contribution to adding functional information to the already existing structural genomics, including the availability of the complete genome sequence, a comprehensive collection of mRNA sequences ( ESTs), microarray platforms, and their use to complement QTL mapping strategies in the identification of genes that underlie complex traits. Efforts of the Brazilian Poultry Genomics Programme in this area resulted in generation of a resource population, which was used for identification of Quantitative Trait Loci ( QTL) regions, generation of ESTs and candidate gene studies that contributed to furthering our understanding of the complex biological processes involved in growth and muscular development in chicken.

Thermal photon production in Au plus Au collisions: Viscous corrections in two different hydrodynamic formalisms

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Uncertainties in the prediction of spatial variability of soil CO2 emissions and related properties

A emissão de CO2 do solo apresenta alta variabilidade espacial, devido à grande dependência espacial observada nas propriedades do solo que a influenciam. Neste estudo, objetivou-se: caracterizar e relacionar a variabilidade espacial da respiração do solo e propriedades relacionadas; avaliar a acurácia dos resultados fornecidos pelo método da krigagem ordinária e simulação sequencial gaussiana; e avaliar a incerteza na predição da variabilidade espacial da emissão de CO2 do solo e demais propriedades utilizando a simulação sequencial gaussiana. O estudo foi conduzido em uma malha amostral irregular com 141 pontos, instalada sobre a cultura de cana-de-açúcar. Nesses pontos foram avaliados a emissão de CO2 do solo, a temperatura do solo, a porosidade livre de água, o teor de matéria orgânica e a densidade do solo. Todas as variáveis apresentaram estrutura de dependência espacial. A emissão de CO2 do solo mostrou correlações positivas com a matéria orgânica (r = 0,25, p < 0,05) e a porosidade livre de água (r = 0,27, p <0,01) e negativa com a densidade do solo (r = -0,41, p < 0,01). No entanto, quando os valores estimados espacialmente (N=8833) são considerados, a porosidade livre de água passa a ser a principal variável responsável pelas características espaciais da respiração do solo, apresentando correlação de 0,26 (p < 0,01). As simulações individuais propiciaram, para todas as variáveis analisadas, melhor reprodução das funções de distribuição acumuladas e dos variogramas, em comparação à krigagem e estimativa E-type. As maiores incertezas na predição da emissão de CO2 estiveram associadas às regiões da área estudada com maiores valores observados e estimados, produzindo estimativas, ao longo do período estudado, de 0,18 a 1,85 t CO2 ha-1, dependendo dos diferentes cenários simulados. O conhecimento das incertezas gerado por meio dos diferentes cenários de estimativa pode ser incluído em inventários de gases do efeito estufa, resultando em estimativas mais conservadoras do potencial de emissão desses gases.

Three-parameter soil-water transient equations in horizontal water-transport analysis

For data obtained from horizontal soil column experiments, the determination of soil-water transport characteristics and functions would be aided by a single-form equation capable of objectively describing water content theta vs. time t at given position x(f). Our study was conducted to evaluate two such possible equations, one having the form of the Weibull frequency distribution, and the other being called a bipower form. Each equation contained three parameters, and was fitted by nonlinear least squares to the experimental data from three separate columns of a single soil. Across the theta range containing the measured data points obtained by gamma-ray attenuation, the two equations were in close agreement. The resulting family of theta(x(f),t) transients, as obtained from either equation, enabled the evaluation of exponent n in the t(n) dependence of the positional advance of a given theta. Not only was n found to be <0.5 at low theta values, but it also increased with theta and tended toward 0.5 as theta approached its sated (near-saturated) value. Some quantitative uncertainty in n(theta) does arise due to the reduced number of data points available at the higher water contents. Without claiming non-Boltzmann behavior (n < 0.5) as necessarily representative of all soils, we nonetheless consider n(theta) to be worthy of further study for evaluating its significance and implications.