An alternative approach to deal with the absence of clinical trials: a proportional meta-analysis of case series studies

PURPOSE: Systematic reviews are criticized for frequently offering inconsistent evidences and absence of straightforward recommendations. Their value seems to be depreciated when the conclusions are uncertain. To describe an alternative approach of evaluating case series studies in health care when there is absence of clinical trials. METHODS: We provide illustrations from recent experiences. Proportional meta-analysis was performed on surgical outcomes: (a) case series studies, (b) use of cryoablation or radiofrequency ablation, and (c) patients with small renal cell carcinoma. The statistically significant difference between both interventions studied was defined if their combined 95% confidential interval (CI) did not overlap. RESULTS: As demonstrated by the example, this analysis is an alternative approach to provide some evidence of the intervention´s effects under evaluation and plotting all available case series in the absence of clinical trials for the health field. CONCLUSIONS: Although we are leading to a low level of evidence to determine efficacy, effectiveness and safety of interventions this alternative approach can help surgeons, physicians and health professionals for a provisionally decision in health care along with their clinical expertise and the patient´s wishes and circumstances in the absence of high-quality primary studies. It´s not a replacement for the gold standard randomized clinical trial, but an alternative analysis for clinical research.

The bias in reversing the Box-Cox transformation in time series forecasting: An empirical study based on neural networks

The Box-Cox transformation is a technique mostly utilized to turn the probabilistic distribution of a time series data into approximately normal. And this helps statistical and neural models to perform more accurate forecastings. However, it introduces a bias when the reversion of the transformation is conducted with the predicted data. The statistical methods to perform a bias-free reversion require, necessarily, the assumption of Gaussianity of the transformed data distribution, which is a rare event in real-world time series. So, the aim of this study was to provide an effective method of removing the bias when the reversion of the Box-Cox transformation is executed. Thus, the developed method is based on a focused time lagged feedforward neural network, which does not require any assumption about the transformed data distribution. Therefore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, numerical simulations were conducted and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the Theil Inequality Index and the Signal-to-Noise ratio of 20-step-ahead forecasts of 40 time series were compared, and the results obtained indicate that the proposed reversion method is valid and justifies new studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Time-series-based maximization of distributed wind power generation integration

Energy policies and technological progress in the development of wind turbines have made wind power the fastest growing renewable power source worldwide. The inherent variability of this resource requires special attention when analyzing the impacts of high penetration on the distribution network. A time-series steady-state analysis is proposed that assesses technical issues such as energy export, losses, and short-circuit levels. A multiobjective programming approach based on the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA) is applied in order to find configurations that maximize the integration of distributed wind power generation (DWPG) while satisfying voltage and thermal limits. The approach has been applied to a medium voltage distribution network considering hourly demand and wind profiles for part of the U.K. The Pareto optimal solutions obtained highlight the drawbacks of using a single demand and generation scenario, and indicate the importance of appropriate substation voltage settings for maximizing the connection of MPG.

Structural Health Monitoring in Smart Structures Through Time Series Analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Efficacy of surgical versus conservative treatment in esophageal perforation: a systematic review of case series studies

PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy of surgical treatment for esophageal perforation. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was performed. We conducted a search strategy in the main electronic databases such as PubMed, Embase and Lilacs to identify all case series. RESULTS: Thirty three case series met the inclusion criteria with a total of 1417 participants. The predominant etiology was iatrogenic (54.2%) followed by spontaneous cause (20.4%) and in 66.1% the localization was thoracic. In 65.4% and 33.4% surgical and conservative therapy, respectively, was considered the first choice. There was a statistically significance different with regards mortality rate favoring the surgical group (16.3%) versus conservative treatment (21.2%) (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Surgical treatment was more effective and safe than conservative treatment concerning mortality rates, although the possibility of bias due to clinical and methodological heterogeneity among the included studies and the level of evidence that cannot be ruled out.

Time series analysis for minority game simulations of financial markets

The minority game (MG) model introduced recently provides promising insights into the understanding of the evolution of prices, indices and rates in the financial markets. In this paper we perform a time series analysis of the model employing tools from statistics, dynamical systems theory and stochastic processes. Using benchmark systems and a financial index for comparison, several conclusions are obtained about the generating mechanism for this kind of evolution. The motion is deterministic, driven by occasional random external perturbation. When the interval between two successive perturbations is sufficiently large, one can find low dimensional chaos in this regime. However, the full motion of the MG model is found to be similar to that of the first differences of the SP500 index: stochastic, nonlinear and (unit root) stationary. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison between the complete Bayesian method and empirical Bayesian method for ARCH models using Brazilian financial time series

In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.

Cryoablation vs radiofrequency ablation for the treatment of renal cell carcinoma: a meta-analysis of case series studies

OBJECTIVETo determine the current status of the literature regarding the clinical efficacy and complication rates of cryoablation vs radiofrequency ablation in the treatment of small renal tumours.METHODSA review of the literature was conducted. There was no language restriction. Studies were obtained from the following sources: MEDLINE, EMBASE and LILACS.Inclusion criteria were (i) case series design with more than one case reported, (ii) use of cryoablation or radiofrequency ablation, (iii) patients with renal cell carcinoma and, (iv) outcome reported as clinical efficacy.When available, we also quantified the complication rates from each included study.Proportional meta-analysis was performed on both outcomes with a random-effects model. The 95% confidential intervals were also calculated.RESULTSThirty-one case series (20 cryoablation, 11 radiofrequency ablation) met all inclusion criteria.The pooled proportion of clinical efficacy was 89% in cryoablation therapy from a total of 457 cases. There was a statistically significant heterogeneity between these studies showing the inconsistency of clinical and methodological aspects.The pooled proportion of clinical efficacy was 90% in radiofrequency ablation therapy from a total of 426 cases. There was no statistically significant heterogeneity between these studies.There was no statistically significant difference regarding complications rate between cryoablation and radiofrequency ablation.CONCLUSIONSThis review shows that both ablation therapies have similar efficacy and complication rates.There is urgency for performing clinical trials with long-term data to establish which intervention is most suitable for the treatment of small renal masses.

Enhanced Recovery after Elective Open Surgical Repair of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: A Complementary Overview through a Pooled Analysis of Proportions from Case Series Studies

Objectives: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) programs in elective open surgical repair (OSR) of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA).Background: Open surgical repair of AAA is associated with high morbidity and mortality, prolonged hospital stay and high costs. ERAS programs contribute to the optimization of treatment by reducing hospital stay and improving clinical outcomes.Methods: A review of PubMed, EMBASE and LILACS databases was conducted. As only one randomized controlled trial was found, a pooled analysis of proportions from case series was conducted, considering it a complementary overview of the topic. Inclusion criteria were case series with more than five cases reported, adult patients who underwent an elective OSR of AAA and use of an ERAS program. ERAS was compared to conventional perioperative care. The pooled proportion and the confidence interval (CI) are shown for each outcome. The overlap of the CI suggests similar effect of the interventions studied.Results: Thirteen case series studies with ERAS involving 1,250 patients were compared to six case series with conventional care with a total of 1,429 patients. The pooled, respective proportions for ERAS and conventional care were: mortality, 1.51% [95% CI: 0.0091, 0.0226] and 3.0% [95% CI 0.0183, 0.0445]; and incidence of complications, 3.82% [95% CI 0.0259, 0.0528] and 4.0% [95% CI 0.03, 0.05].Conclusion: This review shows that ERAS and conventional care therapies have similar mortality and complication rates in OSR of AAA.

A time series sequestration and storage model of atmospheric carbon dioxide

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mechanisms of SnO2 Nanoparticles Formation and Growth in Acid Ethanol Solution Derived from SAXS and Combined Raman-XAS Time-Resolved Studies

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Do anticoagulant and antiplatelet agents prevent acute graft thrombosis in renal transplantation? A meta-analysis of case series studies

Introduction & Objectives: Thrombosis of the renal allograft is expected to occur in 1–6% of kidney transplants, and graft loss is expected in almost all cases. Anticoagulant and anti-platelet agents could serve as an adjunctive preventive measure, but sound evidence of benefits are still lacking, in this setting. We therefore assessed the efficacy and safety of anticoagulant and anti-platelet agents, in reducing the rate of renal allograft thrombosis. Methods: A review of the literature was carried out in major databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE and LILACS), with a comprehensive search strategy, to locate all available case series studies of anticoagulant and/or anti-platelet prophylaxis of thrombosis in renal transplantation. The date of the last search was 11 August 2014. We pooled all case series in a proportional meta-analysis. Statistical significance was achieved if the 95% confidence intervals obtained for each intervention did not overlap. Results: Our search strategy retrieved 7160 titles, from which 21 case series were chosen for analysis. A total of 3246 patients were identified (1718 treated with antiplatelet and/or anticoagulant agents, and 1528 non-treated control subjects). Allograft thrombosis occurred in 7.24% (95% CI 3.45 to 12.27%) of the patients receiving no intervention, compared to 3.38% (95% CI 1.45 to 6.1%), 1.2% (95% CI 0.6 to 2.1%) and 0.47% (95% CI 0.001 to 1.79%), in the anticoagulant, aspirin, and aspirin + anticoagulant groups, respectively. Bleeding complication rates were 28.0% (95% CI 15.4 to 42.7%) for anticoagulants, compared to 12.13% (95% CI 0.8 to 33.93%) for aspirin + anticoagulant, 0.31% (95% CI 0.0001 to 1.32%) for aspirin, and 6.1% (95% CI 2.2 to 11.7%) for the control group. Conclusions: Aspirin is more effective in reducing allograft thrombosis, after kidney transplantation, whether alone or in association with an anticoagulant, when compared to no drug prophylaxis, and without higher haemorrhagic complication rates. Anticoagulants, when used alone, do not show a beneficial effect on thrombosis rates, additionally yielding higher bleeding rates.