Taxa de câmbio e estratégia de crescimento econômico de longo prazo da China

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

Taxas de cruzamento em uma população natural de Cryptocarya Moschata Nees (Lauraceae)

O sistema de cruzamento da espécie arbórea de dossel da Mata Atlântica brasileira, Cryptocarya moschata, foi estudado a partir de material proveniente do Parque Estadual Carlos Botelho, São Miguel Arcanjo, São Paulo, Brasil. As taxas de cruzamento foram determinadas através de marcadores alozímicos obtidos de plântulas germinadas de coortes de sementes coletadas de 35 árvores. O valor médio da taxa de cruzamento de equilíbrio (estimador indireto) foi t^eq = 0.51. As estimativas das taxas de cruzamento uniloco e multilocos (estimadores diretos) foram t^s = 0.725± 0,041 e t^m = 0,884 ± 0,034, respectivamente, indicando um sistema de cruzamento predominantemente alogâmico. As taxas de cruzamento de árvores individuais variaram de 27 a 100 ( x¯ = 87,8) porcento, a partir de t^m calculado com as freqüências gênicas de pólen mantidas constantes ao nível populacional. A partir do modelo de par de irmãos (modelo de cruzamento correlacionado) de Ritland, a correlação entre duas progênies irmãs oriundas de autofecundação (r^s) e a correlação entre duas progênies irmãs oriundas de paternidade por exocruzamento (r^p) foram 35,7% e 99,0%, respectivamente. Esses resultados corroboram o fato de haver variação nas taxas de autocruzamento entre as diferentes árvores, podendo também indicar que quando há endogamia, a maior parte das sementes nas árvores são provavelmente irmãs-germanas.

Agora é Lula: enquadramentos do governo do PT pelo Jornal Nacional

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise de viabilidade econômica e financeira de uma pequena central hidrelétrica

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Relação de longo prazo entre o investimento direto externo e variáveis macroeconômicas entre janeiro de 1999 à dezembro de 2007

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Construção de diagramas de custos para PCH incorporando turbinas de mercado

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

O Estado como empregador de última instância: uma abordagem a partir das finanças funcionais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Mercado de ações brasileiro: uma investigação empírica sobre suas relações de longo prazo e de precedência temporal pré-crise de 2008

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Plano real e a nova realidade brasileira

This paper analyzes the Real Plan and its effects on two administrations of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FHC), a period which extends from 1995 to 2002. To this end, the study includes a brief review of the problems faced by previous plans, especially the Cruzado Plan and the reasons for the belief that it has been successfull in relation to inflation control. Additionally, seeking to describe the process of moving to the new currency towards stabilization, the paper describes the theoretical foundations of the Plan. In sequence, it defines the backround of both international and domestic monetary reform which was one important part of the Plan and therefore the reasons for the implementation of the monetary reform. Subsequently the paper deals with the effects of the Plan on the economy as a whole, covering also the way the economic measures were taken concerning the Mexican and Asian crisis, the policies used fot the exchange rate, interest rate, fiscal accounts, balance of payments, among other factors and the relationship between them. Hence, it describes the immediate and the long-term consequences of stabilization program in terms of output, employment, public deficit and debt. Therefore, it is important to note the various junctures to which the economy was exposed, and also to point out the challenges and obstacles arising from these changes for growth, which was sometimes fast, sometimes slowing down - the so-called stop and go. Of course, facts as the moving to floating exchange rate regime, the adoption of inflation targeting regime and the adoption of fiscal responsibility law along with the primary surplus policy were able to create a new economic environment and to contribute to later success of the Cardoso years

O regime de metas inflacionárias e sua adequação à economia brasileira

The Inflation Targeting Regime was adopted in Brazil in 1999 and it aims at maintaining the price level in the interval set by the government. For such reason, the Central Bank makes use of variations in the interest rate, which causes the cost of the credit to be more expensive, reducing the investments, the jobs and, concomitantly, the inflation. Being aware that the country is subject to sudden reversals of the international capital flows which results in exchange rate and price instability, an econometric analysis of the adequation of the targerting regime to the Brazilian economy, especially concerned with the index price that is used as the parameter for the inflation calculus, is proposed

Aplicação da distribuição de poisson para determinação de estoque mínimo de itens de MRO de baixo giro aplicados em manutenção de ativos industriais

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEB

Previsão de demanda de veículos automotores através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla

This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Comparação do equilíbrio e qualidade de vida entre idosos institucionalizados e não-institucionalizados

Introduction: the improvements on the health area increased the brazilians life expectative. Because of it, more people becomes elder, passing through various common processes of aging, as the balance decrease. Resulting form this the risk of fall increase, and this has a negative impact on the quality of life. As more people become elder the institutionalization tax increase. Objectives: compare the balance and quality of life between institutionalized and non-institutionalized elders; correlate the Berg Balance Scale (BBS) with the Timed Up and Go test (TUG) and with the questionnaire “The Medical Outcome Study 36 – Item Short-Form Health Survey” (SF-36). Methods: were evaluated 20 elders, ten institutionalized (GI) and ten non-institutionalized (GNI). To the balance assessment were used the BBS and the TUG, the quality of life was evaluated using the SF-36. The signifi cance level was set to 5% (p<0,05). The GraphPad Prism 5# was used to analyze the data. To identify the distribution of the data was applied the Shapiro-Wilk test. In the comparison between groups, the normal distributed data were analyzed with the Unpaired Student t test. The non-normal distributed data were analyzed with the Mann-Whitney non-parametric test. The correlations were analyzed with the Pearson (normal data) and Spearman’s (non-normal data) tests. Results: the age average for each group was 72,8±8,36 years (GI) e 67,4±3,53 years (GNI). The GNI had a better performance than the GI in the BBS (*p=0,0017) as in the TUG (*p<0,0002). There wasn’t difference between the quality of life. There was correlation between EEB and TUG (-0,8907 for the GI and -0,7180 for the GNI) and between EEB and the functional capacity domain from the SF-36 (0,7657). Conclusion: the non-institutionalized elders presented best balance. It was found good correlation between TUG and BBS. In the studied sample, to be institutionalized didn’t infl uenced the quality of life.

Equilíbrio eletrolítico e condicionamento térmico: redução do estresse térmico agudo em frangos de corte

Em países de clima tropical, o calor é um dos principais limitantes à produção de frangos de corte, sendo ainda responsável por induzir uma elevada mortalidade, especialmente na fase de terminação. Visando aliviar o efeito do estresse pelo calor, foram avaliadas duas técnicas para melhorar a tolerância térmica: o condicionamento térmico precoce (TCP) e a formulação dieta utilizando o princípio de Mongin (equilíbrio eletrolítico). Para tanto, o balanço eletrolítico do K+Na-Cl foi ajustado em 350 mEq/kg e a relação eletrolítica (K+Cl)/Na em 3:1, pelo programa PPFR (http://www.fmva.unesp.br/ppfr). Foram utilizados 300 pintos machos Cobb 500, em arranjo fatorial 2x2 (com e sem TCP e com e sem o princípio de Mongin), num delineamento inteiramente casualizado, em 24 boxes (6 repetições por tratamento). As aves foram inicialmente alojadas em baterias metálicas (1-7 dias de idade), e posteriormente em piso (8-48 dias de idade), sendo arraçoadas com: (T1) dieta tradicional sem TCP; (T2) dieta tradicional com TCP; (T3) dieta com a aplicação do equilíbrio eletrolítico sem TCP e (T4) dieta com aplicação do equilíbrio eletrolítico com TCP. O condicionamento térmico foi realizado no quinto dia de idade, por 24 horas a 36 °C, somente na metade do lote (150 aves). Após esse período, todas as aves foram transferidas para boxes de 1,5x3m (12 aves/boxe), tendo como cama a maravalha de madeira reutilizada. Aos 36 dias de idade foi aplicado um estresse agudo (36°C) por 8 horas em todos os tratamentos, sendo monitorado eletronicamente a temperatura e a umidade do galpão e do microclima na altura das aves. A alimentação e a água foram ad libitum, mesmo durante o período de estresse. Foram aferidos os dados de desempenho aos 7, 35 e 48 dias de idade para ganho de peso, consumo de ração e conversão alimentar, e também a taxa de mortalidade de cada boxe. Verificou-se que tanto o equilíbrio eletrolítico como o condicionamento térmico precoce foram eficazes significativamente (P<0,05) para minimizar a mortalidade dos frangos submetidos ao estresse agudo de calor, sem prejuízo no desempenho das aves. Além disso, foi observado um efeito mais favorável quando aplicados simultaneamente (T4). Assim, para o tratamento em que nenhuma destas estratégias foram utilizadas (T1), a taxa de mortalidade foi 83% superior ao tratamento em que ambas foram aplicadas (T4). Assim, tanto o condicionamento térmico precoce como o princípio de Mongin foram válidos para minimizar os efeitos danosos causados pelo calor em frangos de corte.