Spatio-temporal dynamics and transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations in Chrysomya albiceps (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

The sensitivity of parameters that govern the stability of population size in Chrysomya albiceps and describe its spatial dynamics was evaluated in this study. The dynamics was modeled using a density-dependent model of population growth. Our simulations show that variation in fecundity and mainly in survival has marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations. C. albiceps exhibits a two-point limit cycle, but the introduction of diffusive dispersal induces an evident qualitative shift from two-point limit cycle to a one fixed-point dynamics. Population dynamics of C. albiceps is here compared to dynamics of Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria.

The sugarcane borer Diatraea saccharalis (Fabr.) (Lep., Crambidae) and its parasitoids: a synchrony approach to spatial and temporal dynamics

A data set on Diatraea saccharalis and its parasitoids, Cotesia flavipes and tachinid flies, was analysed at five spatial scales-sugarcane mill, region, intermediary, farm and zone-to determine the role of spatial scale in synchrony patterns, and on temporal population variability. To analyse synchrony patterns, only the three highest spatial scales were considered, but for temporal population variability, all spatial scales were adopted. The synchrony-distance relationship revealed complex spatial structures depending on both species and spatial scale. Temporal population variability [SD log(x+1)] levels were highest at the smallest spatial scales although, in the majority of the cases, temporal variability was inversely dependent on sample size. All the species studied, with a few exceptions, presented spatial synchrony independent of spatial scale. The tachinid flies exhibited stronger synchrony dynamics than D. saccharalis and C. flavipes in all spatial scales with the latter displaying the weakest synchrony levels, except when mill spatial scales were compared. In some cases spatial synchrony may at first decay and then increase with distance, but the presence of such patterns can change depending on the spatial scale adopted.

Temporal dynamics of stomatal conductance of plants under water deficit: can homeostasis be improved by more complex dynamics?

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Temporal dynamics of two species of Chaetophoraceae (Chlorophyta) in tropical streams of São Paulo State, Southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Forest destructuring as revealed by the temporal dynamics of fundamental species - Case study of Santa Genebra Forest in Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Combined active and semi-supervised learning using particle walking temporal dynamicscombined active and semi-supervised learning using particle walking temporal dynamics

Both Semi-Supervised Leaning and Active Learning are techniques used when unlabeled data is abundant, but the process of labeling them is expensive and/or time consuming. In this paper, those two machine learning techniques are combined into a single nature-inspired method. It features particles walking on a network built from the data set, using a unique random-greedy rule to select neighbors to visit. The particles, which have both competitive and cooperative behavior, are created on the network as the result of label queries. They may be created as the algorithm executes and only nodes affected by the new particles have to be updated. Therefore, it saves execution time compared to traditional active learning frameworks, in which the learning algorithm has to be executed several times. The data items to be queried are select based on information extracted from the nodes and particles temporal dynamics. Two different rules for queries are explored in this paper, one of them is based on querying by uncertainty approaches and the other is based on data and labeled nodes distribution. Each of them may perform better than the other according to some data sets peculiarities. Experimental results on some real-world data sets are provided, and the proposed method outperforms the semi-supervised learning method, from which it is derived, in all of them.

Modeling the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of deforestation-driven carbon emissions: the INPE-EM framework applied to the Brazilian Amazon

We present a generic spatially explicit modeling framework to estimate carbon emissions from deforestation (INPE-EM). The framework incorporates the temporal dynamics related to the deforestation process and accounts for the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity of the region under study. We build an emission model for the Brazilian Amazon combining annual maps of new clearings, four maps of biomass, and a set of alternative parameters based on the recent literature. The most important results are as follows: (a) Using different biomass maps leads to large differences in estimates of emission; for the entire region of the Brazilian Amazon in the last decade, emission estimates of primary forest deforestation range from 0.21 to 0.26 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1. (b) Secondary vegetation growth presents a small impact on emission balance because of the short duration of secondary vegetation. In average, the balance is only 5% smaller than the primary forest deforestation emissions. (c) Deforestation rates decreased significantly in the Brazilian Amazon in recent years, from 27 similar to Mkm2 in 2004 to 7 similar to Mkm2 in 2010. INPE-EM process-based estimates reflect this decrease even though the agricultural frontier is moving to areas of higher biomass. The decrease is slower than a non-process instantaneous model would estimate as it considers residual emissions (slash, wood products, and secondary vegetation). The average balance, considering all biomass, decreases from 0.28 in 2004 to 0.15 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1 in 2009; the non-process model estimates a decrease from 0.33 to 0.10 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1. We conclude that the INPE-EM is a powerful tool for representing deforestation-driven carbon emissions. Biomass estimates are still the largest source of uncertainty in the effective use of this type of model for informing mechanisms such as REDD+. The results also indicate that efforts to reduce emissions should focus not only on controlling primary forest deforestation but also on creating incentives for the restoration of secondary forests.

Dinâmica espaço-temporal de danos do cancro basal em Eucalyptus grandis

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Proteção de Plantas) - FCA

Padrões de distribuição espacial e temporal em comunidades de ácaros em seringueira (Hevea SPP.) no Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Feeding and reproductive dynamics of the damselfish, Stegastes fuscus in the coastal reefs of northeastern Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Integração de modelos espaciais e temporais para predições de níveis freáticos extremos

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar cenários de níveis freáticos extremos, em bacia hidrográfica, por meio de métodos de análise espacial de dados geográficos. Avaliou-se a dinâmica espaço‑temporal dos recursos hídricos subterrâneos em área de afloramento do Sistema Aquífero Guarani. As alturas do lençol freático foram estimadas por meio do monitoramento de níveis em 23 piezômetros e da modelagem das séries temporais disponíveis de abril de 2004 a abril de 2011. Para a geração de cenários espaciais, foram utilizadas técnicas geoestatísticas que incorporaram informações auxiliares relativas a padrões geomorfológicos da bacia, por meio de modelo digital de terreno. Esse procedimento melhorou as estimativas, em razão da alta correlação entre altura do lençol e elevação, e agregou sentido físico às predições. Os cenários apresentaram diferenças quanto aos níveis considerados extremos - muito profundos ou muito superficiais - e podem subsidiar o planejamento, o uso eficiente da água e a gestão sustentável dos recursos hídricos na bacia.

Spatial variations at different observational scales and the seasonal distributions of stream macroalgae in a Brazilian subtropical region

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Variação sazonal da abundância de Ecballocystis pulvinata Bohlin em um riacho da região centro-sul do estado do Paraná

Seasonal variation of abundance of Ecballocystis pulvinata Bohlin in a stream of central-southern region of Parana State. The temporal dynamics of E. pulvinata and its relation to abiotic variables were evaluated monthly during January to December 2007 in a stream located in the central-southern part of Parana State (25 degrees 11'16 '' S - 51 degrees 021'25 '' W). The abundance of the population in terms of percentage cover was obtained by means of the quadrat technique and the following stream water variables were measured: current velocity, irradiance, depth, substrate type, temperature, oxygen saturation, conductivity, pH and turbidity. The abundance of E. pulvinata was considered high (X = 26.7%), with more development (22-46%) during autumn/winter. The low values (0-0.08) of niche width and the few associations with environmental variables shows that the population evaluated is a generalist with regards to the environment in which it occurs. Factors most strictly related were the water flow and the particle size of the substrate, which positively correlated to the seasonal pattern of the population investigated.

Modelling the lethargic crab disease.

The lethargic crab disease (LCD) is an emergent infirmity that has decimated native populations of the mangrove land crab (Ucides cordatus, Decapoda: Ocypodidae) along the Brazilian coast. Several potential etiological agents have been linked with LCD, but only in 2005 was it proved that it is caused by an ascomycete fungus. This is the first attempt to develop a mathematical model to describe the epidemiological dynamics of LCD. The model presents four possible scenarios, namely, the trivial equilibrium, the disease-free equilibrium, endemic equilibrium, and limit cycles arising from a Hopf bifurcation. The threshold values depend on the basic reproductive number of crabs and fungi, and on the infection rate. These scenarios depend on both the biological assumptions and the temporal evolution of the disease. Numerical simulations corroborate the analytical results and illustrate the different temporal dynamics of the crab and fungus populations.

Lingüística de interações moleculares

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)