Analysis of the Stayability in Milk Buffaloes using Survival Models

In this study the trait Stayability (SA) was evaluated according to the year of cull after first calvin, i.e., SA 1 to 6 for 1 to 6 years from first calving in lactating females from bubaline milk herds spread in nine farms located in São Paulo state. Informations were used regarding 1027 lactating Murrah breed buffaloes. The statistical analyses were made using LIFEREG (SAS, 1999) procedure. The SA was evaluated using the fixed effects: farm production, birth year, calving season (Season 1- April to September and Season 2 October - March) and class of milk yield at 270 days. The age at first calving (AFC) was considered as a random effect. The mean observed for total milk yield was 1458.75Kg. Calving Season 2 encloses 65.6% of births. The means of cull age, in months, and the percentage of SA were, respectively: 10.69 e 69% (SA1), 19.30 e 63% (SA2), 26.4 e 54% (SA3), 33.15 e 42% (SA4), 38.53 e 36% (SA5) e 42.65 e 26% (SA6). It is verified that most of culls happens after the first lactation, among the sixth and eleventh month after first calving. It was observed that the factors: farm production, birth year and class of milk yield at 270 days affected significantly all SAs. Factors like calving season and the age at first calving (AFC) were only significant for SAL Being significant the factor AFC in level of 1% and factor time in 10%. For other SAs these factors were not statistically significant.

Analysis of culling probability in dairy buffalo using survival models

In order to contribute to the genetic breeding programs of buffaloes, this study aimed to determine the influence of environmental effects on the stayability (ST) of dairy female Murrah buffalo in the herd. Data from 1016 buffaloes were used. ST was defined as the ability of the female to remain in the herd for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 years after the first calving. Environmental effects were studied by survival analysis, adjusted to the fixed effects of farm, year and season of birth, class of first-lactation milk yield and age at first calving. The data were analyzed using the LIFEREG procedure of the SAS program that fits parametric models to failure time data (culling or ST = 0), and estimates parameters by maximum likelihood estimation. Breeding farm, year of birth and first-lactation milk yield significantly influenced (P < 0.0001) the ST to the specific ages (1 to 6 years after the first calving). Buffaloes that were older at first calving presented higher probabilities of being culled 1 year after the first calving, without any effect on culling at older ages. Buffaloes with a higher milk yield at first calving presented a lower culling probability and remained for a longer period of time in the herd. The effects of breeding farm, year of birth and first-lactation milk yield should be included in models used for the analysis of ST in buffaloes. Copyright © The Animal Consortium 2010.

Algumas distribuições de probalidade para idosos grupados e censurados

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Modelos bayesianos para análise de características reprodutivas de fêmeas Nelore

Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV

Tests of proportional hazards and proportional odds models for grouped survival data

In this paper, we derive score test statistics to discriminate between proportional hazards and proportional odds models for grouped survival data. These models are embedded within a power family transformation in order to obtain the score tests. In simple cases, some small-sample results are obtained for the score statistics using Monte Carlo simulations. Score statistics have distributions well approximated by the chi-squared distribution. Real examples illustrate the proposed tests.

Likelihood approximations and discrete models for tied survival data

Ties among event times are often recorded in survival studies. For example, in a two week laboratory study where event times are measured in days, ties are very likely to occur. The proportional hazards model might be used in this setting using an approximated partial likelihood function. This approximation works well when the number of ties is small. on the other hand, discrete regression models are suggested when the data are heavily tied. However, in many situations it is not clear which approach should be used in practice. In this work, empirical guidelines based on Monte Carlo simulations are provided. These recommendations are based on a measure of the amount of tied data present and the mean square error. An example illustrates the proposed criterion.

Modeling grouped survival data with time-dependent covariates

In this article, proportional hazards and logistic models for grouped survival data were extended to incorporate time-dependent covariates. The extension was motivated by a forestry experiment designed to compare five different water stresses in Eucalyptus grandis seedlings. The response was the seedling lifetime. The data set was grouped since there were just three occasions in which the seedlings was visited by the researcher. In each of these occasions also the shoot height was measured and therefore it is a time-dependent covariate. Both extended models were used in this example, and the results were very similar.

Choosing between Cox proportional hazards and logistic models for interval-censored data via bootstrap

This work develops a new methodology in order to discriminate models for interval-censored data based on bootstrap residual simulation by observing the deviance difference from one model in relation to another, according to Hinde (1992). Generally, this sort of data can generate a large number of tied observations and, in this case, survival time can be regarded as discrete. Therefore, the Cox proportional hazards model for grouped data (Prentice & Gloeckler, 1978) and the logistic model (Lawless, 1982) can befitted by means of generalized linear models. Whitehead (1989) considered censoring to be an indicative variable with a binomial distribution and fitted the Cox proportional hazards model using complementary log-log as a link function. In addition, a logistic model can be fitted using logit as a link function. The proposed methodology arises as an alternative to the score tests developed by Colosimo et al. (2000), where such models can be obtained for discrete binary data as particular cases from the Aranda-Ordaz distribution asymmetric family. These tests are thus developed with a basis on link functions to generate such a fit. The example that motivates this study was the dataset from an experiment carried out on a flax cultivar planted on four substrata susceptible to the pathogen Fusarium oxysoprum. The response variable, which is the time until blighting, was observed in intervals during 52 days. The results were compared with the model fit and the AIC values.

A Generalized Log-Normal Model for Grouped Survival Data

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Survival probability of large rapidity gaps in a QCD model with a dynamical infrared mass scale

We compute the survival probability {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} of large rapidity gaps (LRG) in a QCD based eikonal model with a dynamical gluon mass, where this dynamical infrared mass scale represents the onset of nonperturbative contributions to the diffractive hadron-hadron scattering. Since rapidity gaps can occur in the case of Higgs boson production via fusion of electroweak bosons, we focus on WW -> H fusion processes and show that the resulting {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} decreases with the increase of the energy of the incoming hadrons; in line with the available experimental data for LRG. We obtain {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} = 27.6 +/- 7.8% (18.2 +/- 17.0%) at Tevatron (CERN-LHC) energy for a dynamical gluon mass m(g) = 400 MeV. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

FTY720 in combination with cyclosporine - an analysis of skin allograft survival and renal function

Acute and chronic nephrotoxicity caused by CsA Continuous administration impair kidney allograft survival. Several clinical and experimental protocols have shown benefits to the kidney after decreasing CsA dose, withdrawing the drug or delaying its introduction after transplantation.FTY720 is a new Compound that has immunosuppressive characteristics and increase allograft survival in animal models without causing the side effects of calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs). FTY720 described mechanism of action that consists to alter the lymphocyte migration pattern without impairment of the immune system response against pathogens.In our mice model, FTY720 administered alone or in combination with CsA during 21 days increased skin allograft survival in a fully mismatched strain combination and did not cause significant changes in renal function. Moreover, renal structure was normal in all groups suggesting that at low doses (10 mg/kg/day) CsA can be associated during short-term period to other immunosuppressive drugs, i.e. FTY720 without affecting the kidney.Combination of immunosuppressive compounds with FTY720 and/or delayed introduction of low cyclosporine dose Could prevent graft rejection and avoid nephrotoxicity. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Additive genetic relationship of longevity with fertility and production traits in Nellore cattle based on bivariate models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Anemia at one year is an independent risk factor of graft survival

Background Post-transplant anemia is multifactorial and highly prevalent. Some studies have associated anemia with mortality and graft failure. The purpose of this study was to assess whether the presence of anemia at 1 year is an independent risk factor of mortality and graft survival. Methods All patients transplanted at a single center who survived at least 1 year after transplantation and showed no graft loss (n = 214) were included. Demographic and clinical data were collected at baseline and at 1 year. Patients were divided into two groups (anemic and nonanemic) based on the presence of anemia (hemoglobin<130 g/l in men and 120 g/l in women). Results Baseline characteristics such as age, gender, type of donor, CKD etiology, rejection, andmismatches were similar in both groups. Creatinine clearance was similar in both anemic and nonanemic groups (69.32 ± 29.8 × 75.69 ± 30.5 ml/mim; P = 0.17). A Kaplan- Meier plot showed significantly poorer death-censored graft survival in the anemic group, P = 0.003. Multivariate analysis revealed that anemic patients had a hazard ratio for the graft loss of 3.85 (95% CI: 1.49-9.96; P = 0.005). Conclusions In this study, anemia at 1 year was independently associated with death-censored graft survival and anemic patients were 3.8-fold more likely to lose the graft. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, B.V.

One step forward: contrasting the effects of Toe clipping and PIT tagging on frog survival and recapture probability

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Survival rate, load to fracture, and finite element analysis of incisors and canines restored with ceramic veneers having varied preparation design

Purpose: To evaluate the survival rate, success rate, load to fracture, and finite element analysis (FEA) of maxillary central incisors and canines restored using ceramic veneers and varying preparation designs.Methods and Materials: Thirty human maxillary central incisors and 30 canines were allocated to the following four groups (n=15) based on the preparation design and type of tooth: Gr1 = central incisor with a conservative preparation; Gr2 = central incisor with a conventional preparation with palatal chamfer; Gr3 = canine with a conservative preparation; Gr4 = canine with a conventional preparation with palatal chamfer. Ceramic veneers (lithium disilicate) were fabricated and adhesively cemented (Variolink Veneer). The specimens were subjected to 4 x 106 mechanical cycles and evaluated at every 500,000 cycles to detect failures. Specimens that survived were subjected to a load to fracture test. Bidimensional models were modeled (Rhinoceros 4.0) and evaluated (MSC.Patrans 2005r2 and MSC.Marc 2005r2) on the basis of their maximum principal stress (MPS) values. Survival rate values were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier test (alpha = 0.05) and load to fracture values were analyzed using the Student t-test (alpha = 0.05).Results: All groups showed 100% survival rates. The Student t-test did not show any difference between the groups for load to fracture. FEA showed higher MPS values in the specimens restored using veneers with conventional preparation design with palatal chamfer.Conclusion: Preparation design did not affect the fracture load of canines and central incisors, but the veneers with conventional preparation design with palatal chamfer exhibited a tendency to generate higher MPS values.