13 resultados para Statistical index

em Repositório Institucional UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Julio de Mesquita Filho"


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Soil surface roughness is known to influence water infiltration, runoff and erosion. Soil surface roughness changes with management and weather and its mathematical description still remains an important issue. The main objective of this study was to investigate the effect of tillage on the two fractal indices, fractal dimension, D, and crossover length, 1, currently used in characterizing soil surface microrelief. The statistical index random roughness, RR, was also assessed. Field experiments were done on an Alfisol located at Rio Grande do Sul State (Brazil). Two tillage treatments (conventional versus direct drilling) were tested. The soil surface microrelief was assessed by point elevation measurements in 16 plots for each treatment. The sampling scheme was a square grid with 20 x 20 mm between point spacing and the plot size was 280 x 280 mm, so that each data set consisted of 225 individual elevation points. All indices were calculated after trend removal, both by slope correction, i.e., oriented microrelief, and by slope plus tillage marks correction, i.e., random microrelief. The implemented algorithm for estimating D and 1 consisted in evaluating the roughness around the local root mean square deviation (RMS) of the point elevation values. Irrespective of tillage treatment and detrending procedure, fractal behavior extended only over a bounded range of scales, from 40 to 100 mm, due to the experimental setup. In these conditions, assessing fractal indices was not always straightforward. The statistical index RR and the fractal index I were significantly different between tillage treatments for oriented and random surface conditions. D values of random soil surfaces were not affected by tillage treatment, whereas D values of oriented microrelief were significantly lower in the direct drilled plots. Removal of tillage marks trend resulted in a significant increase in D values. Within each tillage treatment, 1 and D were significantly correlated. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This work presents analyses of the atmospheric conditions and the hindcast of the surface wave field when six extratropical cyclones formed and displaced over the South Atlantic Ocean (10degreesN, 60degreesS; 75degreesW, 15degreesE) between April and September 1999. These events caused high sea waves associated with hazardous conditions along the south and southeast coast of Brazil. The meteorological composite fields for these cyclones show a strong near-surface wind velocity (up to 14 m s(-1)) during its mature phase. The sea-state wave hindcast was obtained using a third-generation wave model forced by the 10-m above ground level wind field from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset. Closer to the south and southeast Brazilian coast, the hindcast results showed significant wave heights of up to 5 m in some of the events. The wave hindcast results for the significant wave height were compared against satellite altimeter data at 6 h intervals. The statistical index showed a systematic underestimation of the significant wave height by 0.5 m. The correlation between wave hindcast and altimeter measurements was greater than 90%, showing a good phase reproduction by the wave model.

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The weather and climate has a direct influence in agriculture, it affects all stages of farming, since soil preparation to harvest. Meteorological data derived from automatic or conventional weather stations are used to monitor these effects. These meteorological data has problems like difficulty of data access and low density of meteorological stations in Brazil. Meteorological data from atmospheric models, such as ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) can be an alternative. Thus, the aim of this study was to compare 10-day period precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature data from the ECMWF model with interpolated maps from 33 weather stations in Sao Paulo state between 2005 and 2010 and generate statistical maps pixel by pixel. Statistical index showed spatially satisfactory (most of the results with R 2 > 0.60, d > 0.7, RMSE < 5°C and < 50 mm; Es < 5°C and < 24 mm) in period and ECMWF model can be recommended for use in the Sao Paulo state.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Evaluated statistical equations estimates (based on radiometric fractions) of the hourly diffuse radiation incident on inclined surfaces for the North to 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85°, the climate and geographical conditions of Botucatu, SP. The database was generated from April/1998 to December/2007, with measures in the three tilted surfaces in different periods, but concomitant to the horizontal plane. In the validation of the equations were used indicative statistics MBE (mean absolute error), RMSE (square root mean square error) and index adjustment (d) for three inclinations and conditions of sky coverage. The increased angle of inclination of the surface led to increased scattering of hourly values for the coefficient of atmospheric transmissivity of diffuse radiation for inclined and horizontal surfaces. Estimates of diffuse radiation on the basis of hourly tilted horizontal global radiation occur for quadratic polynomial models, which adjust K'Dβ maximum values of between 0.14 and 0.30 for winter and summer when KTH varies between 0.40 and 0.66, indicating that energy, the highest values of diffuse radiation occur in partly cloudy sky conditions and / or partially open. The increase in atmospheric transmissivity decreases the performance of annual and monthly equations at all inclinations.

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The number of citations of a scientific publication or of an individual scientist has become an important factor of quality assessment in science. We report a study of the statistical distribution of the citation index of both scientific publications and scientists. We give numerical evidence that Tsallis (power law) statistics explains the entire distribution over eight orders of magnitude (10-4 to 10(4)). Also, we draw Zipf plots in order to analyze the statistical distribution of the citation index of Brazilian and international physicists and chemists. The relatively small group of Brazilian scientists seems more adequate to explain the dynamics of the citation index. In this case, we find that the distribution of the citation index can also be explained by a gradually truncated power law with similar parameters. We finally discuss possible mechanisms behind the citation index of scientists and scientific publications.

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We investigate the Heston model with stochastic volatility and exponential tails as a model for the typical price fluctuations of the Brazilian São Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOVESPA). Raw prices are first corrected for inflation and a period spanning 15 years characterized by memoryless returns is chosen for the analysis. Model parameters are estimated by observing volatility scaling and correlation properties. We show that the Heston model with at least two time scales for the volatility mean reverting dynamics satisfactorily describes price fluctuations ranging from time scales larger than 20min to 160 days. At time scales shorter than 20 min we observe autocorrelated returns and power law tails incompatible with the Heston model. Despite major regulatory changes, hyperinflation and currency crises experienced by the Brazilian market in the period studied, the general success of the description provided may be regarded as an evidence for a general underlying dynamics of price fluctuations at intermediate mesoeconomic time scales well approximated by the Heston model. We also notice that the connection between the Heston model and Ehrenfest urn models could be exploited for bringing new insights into the microeconomic market mechanics. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Tsallis postulated a generalized form for entropy and give rise to a new statistics now known as Tsallis statistics. In the present work, we compare the Tsallis statistics with the gradually truncated Levy flight, and discuss the distribution of an economical index-the Standard and Poor's 500-using the values of standard deviation as calculated by our model. We find that both statistics give almost the same distribution. Thus we feel that gradual truncation of Levy distribution, after certain critical step size for describing complex systems, is a requirement of generalized thermodynamics or similar. The gradually truncated Levy flight is based on physical considerations and bring a better physical picture of the dynamics of the whole system. Tsallis statistics gives a theoretical support. Both statistics together can be utilized for the development of a more exact portfolio theory or to understand better the complexities in human and financial behaviors. A comparison of both statistics is made. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier B.V. B.V.

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THIS IS A RETROSPECTIVE STUDY of 418 patients who received active periodontal treatment between the years of 1984 and 1990. The patients were instructed to return for supportive periodontal treatment (SPT) at 3 to 6-month intervals. The objective of this study was to evaluate patient compliance with periodic recall visits, and to study the relationship of bleeding upon probing in those who returned regularly. The patients were divided into 3 groups: patients who returned periodically for supportive treatment, patients who interrupted the proposed maintenance treatment, and patients who never returned after active periodontal treatment. Analysis was made for each group to correlate the degree of compliance with gender, disease classification, and type of treatment received. To analyze bleeding upon probing, 2 groups of patients were selected: a test group with 39 patients who had attended at least 10 recall visits and participated in the study for more than 40 months, and a control group of 21 patients who interrupted the SPT for at least 12 months. The results showed that 26% of the treated patients returned for SPT and, of those, 40% returned irregularly. There was a statistical significant difference in compliance in relation to disease classification and the type of treatment received, but no correlation was found between compliance and gender. There was a statistically significant difference in compliance between the test group and the control group in relation to the variation of the bleeding index.

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Structural health monitoring (SHM) is related to the ability of monitoring the state and deciding the level of damage or deterioration within aerospace, civil and mechanical systems. In this sense, this paper deals with the application of a two-step auto-regressive and auto-regressive with exogenous inputs (AR-ARX) model for linear prediction of damage diagnosis in structural systems. This damage detection algorithm is based on the. monitoring of residual error as damage-sensitive indexes, obtained through vibration response measurements. In complex structures there are. many positions under observation and a large amount of data to be handed, making difficult the visualization of the signals. This paper also investigates data compression by using principal component analysis. In order to establish a threshold value, a fuzzy c-means clustering is taken to quantify the damage-sensitive index in an unsupervised learning mode. Tests are made in a benchmark problem, as proposed by IASC-ASCE with different damage patterns. The diagnosis that was obtained showed high correlation with the actual integrity state of the structure. Copyright © 2007 by ABCM.

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Euphorbia tirucalli Lineu (Aveloz) belongs to the family Euphorbiaceae and is used in the treatment of cancer and warts. Some studies have reported that phorbol esters are the active principles responsible for the antitumor activity of Aveloz. The production of these molecules occurs in greater quantity in May, during the morning. This study aimed to evaluate whether the physico-chemical parameters of Aveloz homeopathic aqueous solutions such as pH, electrical conductivity and refractive index change due to storage time. Such parameters were measured regularly for 180 days. All solutions were prepared according to the method of grinding with lactose and subsequent dissolution in aqueous medium, as described in the Brazilian Homeopathic Pharmacopoeia, using as starting point the Aveloz latex collected in May. Homeopathic aqueous solutions containing only lactose were also prepared and evaluated as a control group. The potencies that were analyzed for electrical conductivity, pH and refractive index were: 4cH, 7cH, 9cH, 12cH, 14cH, 15cH, 29cH, 30cH. As a result, we found out that there was only statistical difference (p=0.035) in electrical conductivity between the homeopathic solutions containing Aveloz and the homeopathic solutions without Aveloz, when 15cH potency was compared. We also observed that the electrical conductivity increased with the aging of the solutions but is not directly related to the pH or the refractive index of the solutions, indicating that the aging process may alter the electrical conductivity of the homeopathic medicines. The presence of gas inside the glass that stores these solutions may affect the electrical conductivity measurements. Finally, no statistically significant difference was observed (p> 0.05) in the pH and refractive index.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)