Spatial epidemiology of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in a municipality of west Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Linking genetic and environmental factors in amphibian disease risk

A central question in evolutionary biology is how interactions between organisms and the environment shape genetic differentiation. The pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused variable population declines in the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis); thus, disease has potentially shaped, or been shaped by, host genetic diversity. Environmental factors can also influence both amphibian immunity and Bd virulence, confounding our ability to assess the genetic effects on disease dynamics. Here, we used genetics, pathogen dynamics, and environmental data to characterize L.yavapaiensis populations, estimate migration, and determine relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors in predicting Bd dynamics. We found that the two uninfected populations belonged to a single genetic deme, whereas each infected population was genetically unique. We detected an outlier locus that deviated from neutral expectations and was significantly correlated with mortality within populations. Across populations, only environmental variables predicted infection intensity, whereas environment and genetics predicted infection prevalence, and genetic diversity alone predicted mortality. At one locality with geothermally elevated water temperatures, migration estimates revealed source-sink dynamics that have likely prevented local adaptation. We conclude that integrating genetic and environmental variation among populations provides a better understanding of Bd spatial epidemiology, generating more effective conservation management strategies for mitigating amphibian declines.

Spatial Distribution of Seropositive Dogs to Leptospira spp. and Evaluation of Leptospirosis Risk Factors Using a Decision Tree

Background: Leptospirosis is an important zoonotic disease associated with poor areas of urban settings of developing countries and early diagnosis and prompt treatment may prevent disease. Although rodents are reportedly considered the main reservoirs of leptospirosis, dogs may develop the disease, may become asymptomatic carriers and may be used as sentinels for disease epidemiology. The use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) combined with spatial analysis techniques allows the mapping of the disease and the identification and assessment of health risk factors. Besides the use of GIS and spatial analysis, the technique of data mining, decision tree, can provide a great potential to find a pattern in the behavior of the variables that determine the occurrence of leptospirosis. The objective of the present study was to apply Geographical Information Systems and data prospection (decision tree) to evaluate the risk factors for canine leptospirosis in an area of Curitiba, PR.Materials, Methods & Results: The present study was performed on the Vila Pantanal, a urban poor community in the city of Curitiba. A total of 287 dog blood samples were randomly obtained house-by-house in a two-day sampling on January 2010. In addition, a questionnaire was applied to owners at the time of sampling. Geographical coordinates related to each household of tested dog were obtained using a Global Positioning System (GPS) for mapping the spatial distribution of reagent and non-reagent dogs to leptospirosis. For the decision tree, risk factors included results of microagglutination test (MAT) from the serum of dogs, previous disease on the household, contact with rats or other dogs, dog breed, outdoors access, feeding, trash around house or backyard, open sewer proximity and flooding. A total of 189 samples (about 2/3 of overall samples) were randomly selected for the training file and consequent decision rules. The remained 98 samples were used for the testing file. The seroprevalence showed a pattern of spatial distribution that involved all the Pantanal area, without agglomeration of reagent animals. In relation to data mining, from 189 samples used in decision tree, a total of 165 (87.3%) animal samples were correctly classified, generating a Kappa index of 0.413. A total of 154 out of 159 (96.8%) samples were considered non-reagent and were correctly classified and only 5/159 (3.2%) were wrongly identified. on the other hand, only 11 (36.7%) reagent samples were correctly classified, with 19 (63.3%) samples failing diagnosis.Discussion: The spatial distribution that involved all the Pantanal area showed that all the animals in the area are at risk of contamination by Leptospira spp. Although most samples had been classified correctly by the decision tree, a degree of difficulty of separability related to seropositive animals was observed, with only 36.7% of the samples classified correctly. This can occur due to the fact of seronegative animals number is superior to the number of seropositive ones, taking the differences in the pattern of variable behavior. The data mining helped to evaluate the most important risk factors for leptospirosis in an urban poor community of Curitiba. The variables selected by decision tree reflected the important factors about the existence of the disease (default of sewer, presence of rats and rubbish and dogs with free access to street). The analyses showed the multifactorial character of the epidemiology of canine leptospirosis.

Spatial distribution of canine Visceral Leishmaniasis in Ilha Solteira, São Paulo, Brazil

A Leishmaniose Visceral (LV) é causada por protozoários do gênero Leishmania e transmitida por flebotomíneos do gênero Lutzomyia, os quais vêm adaptando-se ao ambiente peridomiciliar, onde o cão é sua principal fonte de alimento, aumentando assim o risco de casos em humanos. Neste trabalho, foram utilizadas técnicas de geoprocessamento e de estastística espacial como contribuição à compreensão da dinâmica epidemiológica da LV na área urbana de Ilha Solteira-SP.

The AIDS epidemic in the Amazon region: a spatial case-control study in Rondonia, Brazil

OBJETIVO Analisar mudanças espaciais no risco de Aids e a relação entre incidência da doença e variáveis socioeconômicas. MÉTODOS Estudo caso-controle espacial, de base populacional, realizado em Rondônia, Brasil, com 1.780 casos notificados pelo Sistema de Vigilância Epidemiológica e os controles a partir de dados demográficos de 1987 a 2006. Os casos foram agrupados em cinco períodos de cinco anos consecutivos. Um modelo aditivo generalizado foi ajustado aos dados. O status dos indivíduos (caso ou controle) foi considerado como a variável dependente e independente: um alisamento ( spline ) bidimensional das coordenadas geográficas e variáveis socioeconômicas municipais. Os valores observados para o teste Moran I foram comparados com a distribuição de referência dos valores obtidos em condições de aleatoriedade espacial. RESULTADOS O risco de Aids apresentou padrão espacial e temporal marcado. A incidência associou-se a indicadores socioeconômicos municipais, como urbanização e capital humano. As maiores taxas de incidência de Aids ocorreram em municípios ao longo da rodovia BR-364; os resultados do teste Moran I mostram correlação espacial positiva associada à contiguidade dos municípios com a rodovia, no terceiro e quarto períodos (p = 0,05). CONCLUSÕES A incidência da doença foi maior em municípios de maior riqueza econômica e urbanização e naqueles cortados pelas estradas principais de Rondônia. O rápido desenvolvimento associado à ocupação de regiões remotas pode ser acompanhado por aumento de riscos à saúde.

Temporal and Spatial Scaling of the Genetic Structure of a Vector-Borne Plant Pathogen

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)