AVALIAÇÃO ROBUSTA DA MODELAGEM NEUTROSFÉRICA SOBRE O TERRITÓRIO BRASILEIRO BASEADA EM MODELOS DE PREVISÃO NUMÉRICA DE TEMPO DA AMÉRICA DO SUL

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Spatio-temporal dynamics and transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations in Chrysomya albiceps (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

The sensitivity of parameters that govern the stability of population size in Chrysomya albiceps and describe its spatial dynamics was evaluated in this study. The dynamics was modeled using a density-dependent model of population growth. Our simulations show that variation in fecundity and mainly in survival has marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations. C. albiceps exhibits a two-point limit cycle, but the introduction of diffusive dispersal induces an evident qualitative shift from two-point limit cycle to a one fixed-point dynamics. Population dynamics of C. albiceps is here compared to dynamics of Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria.

The spatial dynamics of native and introduced blowflies (Dipt., Calliphoridae)

The spatial dynamics of three blowfly species was investigated using a spatially extended model of density-dependent population growth and the results indicate an overall stabilizing effect. Introduction of diffusive dispersal induced a quantitative effect of damping variation in population size on the route to a one-fixed point equilibrium in the native species, Cochliomyia macellaria. On the other hand, diffusive dispersal caused qualitative shifts in the dynamics of two invading species, Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria. In both species diffusive dispersal can produce a qualitative shift from a two-point limit cycle to a one fixed-point dynamics. Quantitatively, dispersal also has the effect of damping oscillations in population size in the invading species.