South Atlantic Ocean cyclogenesis climatology simulated by regional climate model (RegCM3)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Reinforcing and expanding the predictions of the disturbance vicariance hypothesis in Amazonian harlequin frogs: A molecular phylogenetic and climate envelope modelling approach

The disturbance vicariance hypothesis (DV) has been proposed to explain speciation in Amazonia, especially its edge regions, e. g. in eastern Guiana Shield harlequin frogs (Atelopus) which are suggested to have derived from a cool-adapted Andean ancestor. In concordance with DV predictions we studied that (i) these amphibians display a natural distribution gap in central Amazonia; (ii) east of this gap they constitute a monophyletic lineage which is nested within a pre-Andean/western clade; (iii) climate envelopes of Atelopus west and east of the distribution gap show some macroclimatic divergence due to a regional climate envelope shift; (iv) geographic distributions of climate envelopes of western and eastern Atelopus range into central Amazonia but with limited spatial overlap. We tested if presence and apparent absence data points of Atelopus were homogenously distributed with Ripley's K function. A molecular phylogeny (mitochondrial 16S rRNA gene) was reconstructed using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference to study if Guianan Atelopus constitute a clade nested within a larger genus phylogeny. We focused on climate envelope divergence and geographic distribution by computing climatic envelope models with MaxEnt based on macroscale bioclimatic parameters and testing them by using Schoener's index and modified Hellinger distance. We corroborated existing DV predictions and, for the first time, formulated new DV predictions aiming on species' climate envelope change. Our results suggest that cool-adapted Andean Atelopus ancestors had dispersed into the Amazon basin and further onto the eastern Guiana Shield where, under warm conditions, they were forced to change climate envelopes. © 2010 The Author(s).

Impacts of Climate Change and the End of Deforestation on Land Use in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Homogeneity assessment of a station climate series (1933-2005) in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo: instruments change and urbanization effects

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Impact of climate change on the phoma leaf spot of coffee in Brazil

The potential impact of global climate change on the spatial-temporal distribution of phoma leaf spot of coffee in Brazil was evaluated. Maps were prepared with the favorability of the climate to the occurrence of the disease in the current period and future. The future scenarios used were centered for the decades of 2010-2030, 2040-2060, and 2070-2090 (scenarios A2 and B2). These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCM's) provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Assuming the future scenarios outlined by the IPCC, a reduction will occur in the occurrence of climatic favorability of phoma leaf spot in Brazil in both future scenarios (A2 and B2). As with the temporal distribution, the period of greatest risk of phoma leaf spot will tend to diminish in future decades. These planned changes will be larger in the A2 scenario compared to the predicted scenario B2. Despite the decrease in the favorability of phoma leaf spot in the country, some regions still present a potential risk of this disease. Furthermore, the increased frequency of extreme weather was not taken in to account. These will certainly influence the magnitude of potential impacts of climate change on the phoma leaf spot in Brazil.

Socio-climatic hotspots in Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Zoneamento agroclimático de nogueira-macadâmia para o Brasil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Composição florística de trechos florestais na borda sul-amazônica

Este estudo apresenta a composição florística de trechos de uma faixa de vegetação de transição existente na região centro-leste do Estado de Mato Grosso, mais precisamente no município de Gaúcha do Norte (13° 10'S e 53° 15' O), onde dá-se o contato entre a Floresta Ombrófila e a Floresta Estacional. O levantamento florístico foi realizado em março de 1999 e bimestralmente a partir de agosto de 1999 até março de 2001, em excursões com duração média de 5 dias, por meio de caminhadas na borda e no interior de florestas, sendo coletadas fanerógamas em fase reprodutiva. Também foram incluídas amostras vegetativas de espécies arbustivo-arbóreas, que não floresceram ou frutificaram durante o período de amostragem, amostradas em 3ha destinados ao levantamento fitossociológico. O levantamento florístico resultou em 72 famílias, 168 gêneros e 268 espécies. do total de espécies, 66% apresentaram hábito arbóreo e 18% foram lianas. As ervas e arbustos praticamente restringiram-se às áreas de borda ou clareiras, somando 13%. Já a flora epifítica mostrou-se pouco expressiva (1%), quando comparada ao restante da Amazônia, em conseqüência do clima regional mais seco. Hemiepífitas, parasitas e palmeiras constituíram o percentual restante. Constatou-se que 39 espécies amostradas em Gaúcha do Norte ainda não haviam sido depositadas em herbários que mantém coleções representativas da flora matogrossense, enfatizando a carência de coletas nas áreas florestais do Estado.

Influência dos períodos, seco e chuvoso, sobre os parâmetros clínicos em caprinos das raças Canindé e Moxotó

Os caprinos têm um sistema de termorregulação que visa manter a temperatura corporal constante dentro de certos limites, independente da temperatura ambiente. Quando esses limites são estabelecidos, eles são usados em diversos mecanismos fisiológicos para manter a temperatura corporal (TC) dentro dos limites normais. Assim, a produção animal pode diminuir devido ao estresse térmico causado por temperaturas elevadas, especialmente em áreas semi-áridas como o Nordeste do Brasil. Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o comportamento fisiológico de diferentes grupos genéticos de caprinos nativos de acordo com a resposta fisiológica das varáveis temperatura retal (TR), frequência respiratória (FR), batimentos cardíacos (BC) e movimentos ruminais (MR), e estabelecer os parâmetros fisiológicos para estas raças sob as condições do semiárido do Nordeste do Brasil. Foram selecionados aleatoriamente 30 animais, sendo cinco machos e dez fêmeas da raça Canindé e cinco machos e dez fêmeas da raça Moxotó, dos quais foram aferidos as variáveis BC, FR e TR nos meses de abril e setembro/2007 e 2008. Observou-se influência significativa (P<0,05) do período do ano no BC, na FR e na TR na raça Canindé, sendo observados valores mais elevados de BC e TR no período chuvoso. Na raça Moxotó observou-se uma diferença significativa (P<0,05) quanto ao BC e TR entre os períodos estudados, sendo observadas na estação seca maiores valores para estas variáveis. Também se observou nesta raça, uma correlação negativa (47%) entre a temperatura ambiente (TA) e TR no período seco, enquanto que no período chuvoso, essa correlação foi positiva (28%). A correlação entre TA e BC foi negativa (21%) no período chuvoso e, positiva (25%) no período seco. Na raça Canindé observou-se correlação negativa (39%) entre TA e movimento ruminal (MR) na época chuvosa, enquanto que no período seco, essa correlação foi positiva (33%). Os parâmetros clínicos avaliados neste estudo encontram-se dentro da normalidade para a espécie caprina no semi-árido nordestino e a raça Moxotó apresentou comportamento condizente com uma maior tolerância ao clima da região e um maior grau de adaptabilidade.

Classificação climática para os municípios de Botucatu e São Manuel, SP

Climatic classification defines the geographical limits of different climate types all over the world, and it is considered essential to study similar areas. This work updates the climatic classification of the municipal districts of Botucatu and of São Manuel, State of Sao Paulo, where the experimental farms of the Schools of Agronomical Sciences - UNESP, Campus of Botucatu, State of São Paulo, are located. Koppen's and Thornthwaite's methods were used for the air temperature and precipitation data, in a 36-year period (from 1971 to 2006). For both municipal districts of Botucatu and São Manuel, the climate was characterized as being Cfa, hot climate with rains in the summer and drought in the winter, and the average temperature in the hottest month is above 22 °C. According to Thornthwaite's classification, there was a small difference due to the humidity index, characterized as B2rB′3a′ (humid climate with small hydro deficiency - April, July and August, with annual potential evapotranspiration of 945.15 mm and concentration of the potential evapotranspiration in the summer of 33%) in the district of Botucatu, and as B1rB′3a′ (humid climate with small hidric deficiency - April, July and August, with annual potential evapotranspiration of 994.21 mm and concentration of the potential evapotranspiration in the summer of 33%)in the district of São Manuel.

Análise do risco de ocorrência da monilíase em cacaueiro no Brasil face às mudanças climáticas globais

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Application of landsat images for quantifying the energy balance under conditions of land use changes in the semi-arid region of Brazil

In the Nilo Coelho irrigation scheme, Brazil, the natural vegetation has been replaced by irrigated agriculture, bringing importance for the quantification of the effects on the energy exchanges between the mixed vegetated surfaces and the lower atmosphere. Landsat satellite images and agro-meteorological stations from 1992 to 2011 were used together, for modelling these exchanges. Surface albedo (α0), NDVI and surface temperature (T0) were the basic remote sensing retrieving parameters necessary to calculate the latent heat flux (λE) and the surface resistance to evapotranspiration (rs) on a large scale. The daily net radiation (Rn) was obtained from α0, air temperature (Ta) and short-wave transmissivity (τsw) throughout the slob equation, allowing the quantification of the daily sensible heat flux (H) by residual in the energy balance equation. With a threshold value for rs, it was possible to separate the energy fluxes from crops and natural vegetation. The averaged fractions of Rn partitioned as H and λE, were in average 39 and 67%, respectively. It was observed an increase of the energy used for the evapotranspiration process inside irrigated areas from 51% in 1992 to 80% in 2011, with the ratio λE/Rn presenting an increase of 3 % per year. The tools and models applied in the current research, can subsidize the monitoring of the coupled climate and land use changes effects in irrigation perimeters, being valuable when aiming the sustainability of the irrigated agriculture in the future, avoiding conflicts among different water users. © 2012 SPIE.

Estudo e desenvolvimento do índice potencial de impacto de descargas atmosféricas em linhas de transmissão

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Pervasive transition of the Brazilian land-use system

Agriculture, deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions and local/regional climate change have been closely intertwined in Brazil. Recent studies show that this relationship has been changing since the mid 2000s, with the burgeoning intensification and commoditization of Brazilian agriculture. On one hand, this accrues considerable environmental dividends including a pronounced reduction in deforestation (which is becoming decoupled from agricultural production), resulting in a decrease of similar to 40% in nationwide greenhouse gas emissions since 2005, and a potential cooling of the climate at the local scale. On the other hand, these changes in the land-use system further reinforce the long-established inequality in land ownership, contributing to rural-urban migration that ultimately fuels haphazard expansion of urban areas. We argue that strong enforcement of sector-oriented policies and solving long-standing land tenure problems, rather than simply waiting for market self-regulation, are key steps to buffer the detrimental effects of agricultural intensification at the forefront of a sustainable pathway for land use in Brazil.

Um estudo da vulnerabilidade socioclimática no Brasil e no mundo

The Socio Climate Vulnerability Index (IVSC, Portuguese acronym) aims to expose spatially and in a comparative basis, human settlement areas that are more susceptible to the potential risks posed by climate change. To access this vulnerability, the IVSC draws on the aggregation of adaptive capacity and sensitivity indicators (Human Development Index and population density) and an indicator of projected climate change (Regional Climate Change Index-IRCM). The IVSC can be applied to any spatial scale, as long as data in reasonable resolution.is available. Knowing the spatial distribution of vulnerability is an important strategic step in development and implementation of measures that seeks to improve human development and the preparedness of society for future environmental changes. In addition, the production and comparison climate change vulnerability indexes is an important exercise to improve gradually the quality of information provided to decision makers and stakeholders in the management of measures involving climate change adaptation