Uso de modelos estatísticos para dados de escore de crédito de uma instituição financeira

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEB

Fiscal policy contradiction: a perspective on Brazil and Mexico

The aim of this paper is to discuss the quality of fiscal policy in Brazil and Mexico and investigate whether fiscal policy influence is favorable to reduce the unemployment rate. Public spending, which has a positive effect on the level of employment when results in additional aggregate demand, may cause a negative effect on employment, if its financing depends on persistent high interest rates. Brazil and Mexico have engaged in a long effort to control public spending and to reduce the public deficit to zero. Does this policy bring a positive result to the economic activity no matter how actual public deficit has been financed? We select variables related to public budget as public sector borrowing requirements, taxes, public debt and others to form a data base. The fiscal institutional arrangement and the data allow us to evaluate the fiscal policy as a whole and to discuss the importance of credibility and reputation of the government.

Ecological impacts from syngas burning in internal combustion engine: Technical and economic aspects

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Electricity, hot water and cold water production from biomass. Energetic and economical analysis of the compact system of cogeneration run with woodgas from a small downdraft gasifier

Wood gasification technologies to convert the biomass into fuel gas stand out. on the other hand, producing electrical energy from stationary engine is widely spread, and its application in rural communities where the electrical network doesn't exist is very required. The recovery of exhaust gases (engine) is a possibility that makes the system attractive when compared with the same components used to obtain individual heat such as electric power. This paper presents an energetic alternative to adapt a fixed bed gasifier with a compact cogeneration system in order to cover electrical and thermal demands in a rural area and showing an energy solution for small social communities using renewable fuels. Therefore, an energetic and economical analysis from a cogeneration system producing electric energy, hot and cold water, using wooden gas as fuel from a small-sized gasifier was calculated. The energy balance that includes the energy efficiency (electric generation as well as hot and cold water system; performance coefficient and the heat exchanger, among other items), was calculated. Considering the annual interest rates and the amortization periods, the costs of production of electrical energy, hot and cold water were calculated, taking into account the investment, the operation and the maintenance cost of the equipments. Crown Copyright (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Domestic Politics and International Changes on the Brazilian Perception of Regional Integration

This article aims to analyze the impact of domestic politics and international changes that influence Brazilian positions regarding regional integration processes in South America, particularly the Southern Common Market, Mercosur. The dynamics of the international system and their impact on the evolution of the elite's perception of the role the country should play in the world are important variables for understanding these positions. The state's postures in relation to integration were and are based on a real interest, but this interest is also linked with the objective of ensuring better conditions for participation in other international arenas. Starting with the hypothesis that transformations in the international setting have strongly influenced Brazil's positioning, the elements of continuity and change in the country's behavior toward Mercosur are identified, with domestic politics as the main explanation.

Long term economic relationships from cointegration maps

We employ the Bayesian framework to define a cointegration measure aimed to represent long term relationships between time series. For visualization of these relationships we introduce a dissimilarity matrix and a map based on the sorting points into neighborhoods (SPIN) technique, which has been previously used to analyze large data sets from DNA arrays. We exemplify the technique in three data sets: US interest rates (USIR), monthly inflation rates and gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A preliminary physicochemical, exergetic and economic study of hydrogen production utilizing glycerol

This work has as objective to demonstrate technical and economic viability of hydrogen production utilizing glycerol. The volume of this substance, which was initially produced by synthetic ways (from oil-derived products), has increased dramatically due mainly to biodiesel production through transesterification process which has glycerol as main residue. The surplus amount of glycerol has been generally utilized to feed poultry or as fuel in boilers, beyond other applications such as production of soaps, chemical products for food industry, explosives, and others. The difficulty to allocate this additional amount of glycerol has become it in an enormous environment problem, in contrary to the objective of biodiesel chain, which is to diminish environmental impact substituting oil and its derivatives, which release more emissions than biofuels, do not contribute to CO2-cycle and are not renewable sources. Beyond to utilize glycerol in combustion processes, this material could be utilized for hydrogen production. However, a small quantity of works (theoretical and experimental) and reports concerning this theme could be encountered. Firstly, the produced glycerol must be purified since non-reacted amounts of materials, inclusively catalysts, contribute to deactivate catalysts utilized in hydrogen production processes. The volume of non-reacted reactants and non-utilized catalysts during transesterification process could be reutilized. Various technologies of thermochemical generation of hydrogen that utilizes glycerol (and other fuels) were evaluated and the greatest performances and their conditions are encountered as soon as the most efficient technology of hydrogen production. Firstly, a physicochemical analysis must be performed. This step has as objective to evaluate the necessary amount of reactants to produce a determined volume of hydrogen and determine thermodynamic conditions (such as temperature and pressure) where the major performances of hydrogen production could be encountered. The calculations are based on the process where advance degrees are found and hence, fractions of products (especially hydrogen, however, CO2, CO, CH4 and solid carbon could be also encountered) are calculated. To produce 1 Nm3/h of gaseous hydrogen (necessary for a PEMFC - Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell - containing an electric efficiency of about 40%, to generate 1 kWh), 0,558 kg/h of glycerol is necessary in global steam reforming, 0,978 kg/h of glycerol in partial oxidation and cracking processes, and 0,782 kg/h of glycerol in autothermal reforming process. The dry reforming process could not be performed to produce hydrogen utilizing glycerol, in contrary to the utilization of methane, ethanol, and other hydrocarbons. In this study, steam reforming process was preferred due mainly to higher efficiencies of production and the need of minor amount of glycerol as cited above. In the global steam reforming of glycerine, for one mole of glycerol, three moles of water are necessary to produce three moles of CO2 and seven moles of H2. The response reactions process was utilized to predict steam reforming process more accurately. In this mean, the production of solid carbon, CO, and CH4, beyond CO2 and hydrogen was predicted. However, traces of acetaldehyde (C2H2), ethylene (C2H4), ethylene glycol, acetone, and others were encountered in some experimental studies. The rates of determined products obviously depend on the adopted catalysts (and its physical and chemical properties) and thermodynamic conditions of hydrogen production. Eight reactions of steam reforming and cracking were predicted considering only the determined products. In the case of steam reforming at 600°C, the advance degree of this reactor could attain its maximum value, i.e., overall volume of reactants could be obtained whether this reaction is maintained at 1 atm. As soon as temperature of this reaction increases the advance degree also increase, in contrary to the pressure, where advance degree decrease as soon as pressure increase. The fact of temperature of reforming is relatively small, lower costs of installation could be attained, especially cheaper thermocouples and smaller amount of thermo insulators and materials for its assembling. Utilizing the response reactions process in steam reforming, the predicted volumes of products, for the production of 1 Nm3/h of H2 and thermodynamic conditions as cited previously, were 0,264 kg/h of CO (13% of molar fraction of reaction products), 0,038 kg/h of CH4 (3% of molar fraction), 0,028 kg/h of C (3% of molar fraction), and 0,623 kg/h of CO2 (20% of molar fraction). Through process of water-gas shift reactions (WGSR) an additional amount of hydrogen could be produced utilizing mainly the volumes of produced CO and CH4. The overall results (steam reforming plus WGSR) could be similar to global steam reforming. An attention must to be taking into account due to the possibility to produce an additional amount of CH4 (through methanation process) and solid carbon (through Boudouard process). The production of solid carbon must to be avoided because this reactant diminishes (filling the pores) and even deactivate active area of catalysts. To avoid solid carbon production, an additional amount of water is suggested. This method could be also utilized to diminish the volume of CO (through WGSR process) since this product is prejudicial for the activity of low temperature fuel cells (such as PEMFC). In some works, more three or even six moles of water are suggested. A net energy balance of studied hydrogen production processes (at 1 atm only) was developed. In this balance, low heat value of reactant and products and utilized energy for the process (heat supply) were cited. In the case of steam reforming utilizing response reactions, global steam reforming, and cracking processes, the maximum net energy was detected at 700°C. Partial oxidation and autothermal reforming obtained negative net energy in all cited temperatures despite to be exothermic reactions. For global steam reforming, the major value was 114 kJ/h. In the case of steam reforming, the highest value of net energy was detected in this temperature (-170 kJ/h). The major values were detected in the cracking process (up to 2586 kJ/h). The exergetic analysis has as objective, associated with physicochemical analysis, to determine conditions where reactions could be performed at higher efficiencies with lower losses. This study was performed through calculations of exergetic and rational efficiencies, and irreversibilities. In this analysis, as in the previously performed physicochemical analysis, conditions such as temperature of 600°C and pressure of 1 atm for global steam reforming process were suggested due to lower irreversibility and higher efficiencies. Subsequently, higher irreversibilities and lower efficiencies were detected in autothermal reforming, partial oxidation and cracking process. Comparing global reaction of steam reforming with more-accurate steam reforming, it was verified that efficiencies were diminished and irreversibilities were increased. These results could be altered with introduction of WGSR process. An economic analysis could be performed to evaluate the cost of generated hydrogen and determine means to diminish the costs. This analysis suggests an annual period of operation between 5000-7000 hours, interest rates of up to 20% per annum (considering Brazilian conditions), and pay-back of up to 20 years. Another considerations must to be take into account such as tariffs of utilized glycerol and electricity (to be utilized as heat source and (or) for own process as pumps, lamps, valves, and other devices), installation (estimated as US$ 15.000 for a plant of 1 Nm3/h) and maintenance cost. The adoption of emission trading schemes such as carbon credits could be performed since this is a process with potential of mitigates environment impact. Not considering credit carbons, the minor cost of calculated H2 was 0,16288 US$/kWh if glycerol is also utilized as heat sources and 0,17677 US$/kWh if electricity is utilized as heat sources. The range of considered tariff of glycerol was 0-0,1 US$/kWh (taking as basis LHV of H2) and the tariff of electricity is US$ 0,0867 US$/kWh, with demand cost of 12,49 US$/kW. The costs of electricity were obtained by Companhia Bandeirante, localized in São Paulo State. The differences among costs of hydrogen production utilizing glycerol and electricity as heat source was in a range between 0,3-5,8%. This technology in this moment is not mature. However, it allows the employment generation with the additional utilization of glycerol, especially with plants associated with biodiesel plants. The produced hydrogen and electricity could be utilized in own process, increasing its final performance.

The need of subsidy for the implementation of photovoltaic solar energy as supporting of decentralized electrical power generation in Brazil

The growing demand for electrical power and the limited capital invested to provide this power is forcing countries like Brazil to search for new alternatives for electrical power generation. The purpose of this paper is to present a technical and economic study on a 15 kW solar plant installed in an isolated community, highlighting the importance of the need for financial subsidy from the government. It evaluates the importance of parameters such as the annual interest rate, specific investment, the marginal cost of expanding the electrical power supply and the government subsidy on amortization time of capital invested. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

Adensamento e habitação: a implantação do programa Minha Casa Minha Vida na cidade de Bauru (SP) sob a ótica da sustentabilidade

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEB

Estimativa do custo médio ponderado de capital em produtos agrícolas

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Distribuição da renda entre salários e lucros na indústria de calçados de Franca de 1994 a 2002

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Mercado de ações brasileiro: uma investigação empírica sobre suas relações de longo prazo e de precedência temporal pré-crise de 2008

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Enquanto isso na Sociedade de Consumo Líquido-Moderna: a produção de significados e a tomada de decisão de indivíduos-consumidores

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Métodos econométricos para a análise do índice de inflação no Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fiscal policy contradiction: a perspective on Brazil and Mexico

The aim of this paper is to discuss the quality of fiscal policy in Brazil and Mexico and investigate whether fiscal policy influence is favorable to reduce the unemployment rate. Public spending, which has a positive effect on the level of employment when results in additional aggregate demand, may cause a negative effect on employment, if its financing depends on persistent high interest rates. Brazil and Mexico have engaged in a long effort to control public spending and to reduce the public deficit to zero. Does this policy bring a positive result to the economic activity no matter how actual public deficit has been financed? We select variables related to public budget as public sector borrowing requirements, taxes, public debt and others to form a data base. The fiscal institutional arrangement and the data allow us to evaluate the fiscal policy as a who leand to discuss the importance of credibility and reputation of the government.