Evaluating and classifying contaminated areas based on loss functions using annealing simulations

This paper presents a methodology based on geostatistical theory for quantifying the risks associated with heavy-metal contamination in the harbor area of Santana, Amapa State, Northern Brazil. In this area there were activities related to the commercialization of manganese ore from Serra do Navio. Manganese and arsenic concentrations at unsampled sites were estimated by postprocessing results from stochastic annealing simulations; the simulations were used to test different criteria for optimization, including average, median, and quantiles. For classifying areas as contaminated or uncontaminated, estimated quantiles based on functions of asymmetric loss showed better results than did estimates based on symmetric loss, such as the average or the median. The use of specific loss functions in the decision-making process can reduce the costs of remediation and health maintenance. The highest global health costs were observed for manganese. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Real-time optical monitoring of the dip coating process

A significant part of film production by the coating industry is based on wet bench processes, where better understanding of their temporal dynamics could facilitate control and optimization. In this work, in situ laser interferometry is applied to study properties of flowing liquids and quantitatively monitor the dip coating batch process. Two oil standards Newtonian, non-volatile, with constant refractive indices and distinct flow properties - were measured under several withdrawing speeds. The dynamics of film physical thickness then depends on time as t(-1/2), and flow characterization becomes possible with high precision (linear slope uncertainty of +/-0.04%). Resulting kinematic viscosities for OP60 and OP400 are 1,17 +/- 0,03. St and 9,9 +/- 0,2 St, respectively. These results agree with nominal values, as provided by the manufacturer. For more complex films (a multi-component sol-gel Zirconyl Chloride aqueous solution) with a varying refractive index, through a direct polarimetric measurement, allowing also determination of the temporal evolution of physical thickness (uncertainty of +/- 0,007 microns) is also determined during dip coating.

Product development process: Using real options for assessments and to support the decision-making at decision gates

Enterprises need continuous product development activities to remain competitive in the marketplace. Their product development process (PDP) must manage stakeholders' needs - technical, financial, legal, and environmental aspects, customer requirements, Corporate strategy, etc. -, being a multidisciplinary and strategic issue. An approach to use real option to support the decision-making process at PDP phases in taken. The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the conventional net present value (NPV) approach. It is based on the same principals of financial options: the right to buy or sell financial values (mostly stocks) at a predetermined price, with no obligation to do so. In PDP, a multi-period approach that takes into account the flexibility of, for instance, being able to postpone prototyping and design decisions, waiting for more information about technologies, customer acceptance, funding, etc. In the present article, the state of the art of real options theory is prospected and a model to use the real options in PDP is proposed, so that financial aspects can be properly considered at each project phase of the product development. Conclusion is that such model can provide more robustness to the decisions processes within PDP.

Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A Fuzzy Goal Programming model for solving aggregate production-planning problems under uncertainty: A case study in a Brazilian sugar mill

This paper proposes a Fuzzy Goal Programming model (FGP) for a real aggregate production-planning problem. To do so, an application was made in a Brazilian Sugar and Ethanol Milling Company. The FGP Model depicts the comprehensive production process of sugar, ethanol, molasses and derivatives, and considers the uncertainties involved in ethanol and sugar production. Decision-makings, related to the agricultural and logistics phases, were considered on a weekly-basis planning horizon to include the whole harvesting season and the periods between harvests. The research has provided interesting results about decisions in the agricultural stages of cutting, loading and transportation to sugarcane suppliers and, especially, in milling decisions, whose choice of production process includes storage and logistics distribution. (C)2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.