95 resultados para Probabilistic methodology
em Repositório Institucional UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Julio de Mesquita Filho"
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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS
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Pós-graduação em Ciência da Computação - IBILCE
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This work presents a methodology for elastic-plastic fracture reliability analysis of plane and axisymmetric structures. The structural reliability analysis is accomplished by means of the FORM analytical method. The virtual crack extension technique based on a direct minimization of potencial energy is utililized for the calculation of the energy release rate. Results are presented to illustrate the performance of the adopted methodology.
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The system reliability depends on the reliability of its components itself. Therefore, it is necessary a methodology capable of inferring the state of functionality of these components to establish reliable indices of quality. Allocation models for maintenance and protective devices, among others, have been used in order to improve the quality and availability of services on electric power distribution systems. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of distribution system components in an integrated way, using probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems to infer about the operation probability of each component. © 2012 IEEE.
A intermediação da noção de probabilidade na construção de conceitos relacionados à cinética química
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Este trabalho procurou identificar como estudantes do Ensino Médio se apropriam de conceitos e elaboram determinados modelos inseridos em cinética química, especificamente o modelo cinético de colisão de partículas numa reação (Teoria das Colisões). Esta análise e as reflexões que a seguiram foram baseadas, sobretudo, nos estudos realizados por Piaget, Piaget e Inhelder, Jun e Fischbein. Utilizamos como documentos as transcrições das entrevistas (pré e pós-testes) realizadas individualmente com cada aluno. Inicialmente, os estudantes foram entrevistados (pré-testes) com o intuito de identificar a familiaridade com a noção de evento probabilístico ou aleatório. Numa segunda etapa (pós-testes), esse conhecimento (ou a ausência parcial/total dele) foi posto à prova numa tentativa de se estabelecerem relações com um conteúdo específico da Química (Teoria das Colisões). Os resultados obtidos apontam para grandes discrepâncias entre o modelo cinético de colisões elaborado pelos estudantes e aquele cientificamente aceito.
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O desenvolvimento da produção e uso do Bacillus thuringiensis no Brasil em escala comercial enfrenta certas dificuldades, entre elas o estabelecimento de metodologias para a quantificação de produtos tóxicos a serem comercializados. Atualmente, a quantidade de toxinas é expressa como porcentagem do total de proteínas presentes em amostras em consideração. Tal metodologia, entretanto, não mede a quantidade real de uma determinada proteína presente em um produto qualquer, além do fato de diferentes linhagens bacterianas possuírem diferentes genes codificadores para endotoxinas e mesmo para b-toxina. Desde que os diferentes tipos de toxinas apresentam diferentes características antigências, este trabalho tem como objetivo a utilização de técnicas imunológicas para quantificar específicamente o conteúdo de proteína cristal presente em diferentes amostras. A proteína cristal produzida pela subespécie B. thuringiensis var. israelensis foi purificada por ultracentrifugação e utilizada para imunizar coelhas e produzir soros hiperimunes. Tais soros foram posteriormente usados para avaliar o nível de proteína cristal em bioinseticidas comerciais e em culturas de laboratório desta bactéria utilizando-se a técnica do imunodot. Os resultados foram obtidos por comparação de reações com concentrações conhecidas de proteína cristal permitindo assim avaliar com segurança os níveis desta proteína em várias preparações.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Biotechnological conversion of biomass into fuels and chemicals requires hydrolysis of the polysaccharide fraction into monomeric sugars. Hydrolysis can be performed enzymatically and with dilute or concentrate mineral acids. The present study used dilute sulfuric acid as a catalyst for hydrolysis of Eucalyptus grandis residue. The purpose of this paper was to optimize the hydrolysis process in a 1.41 pilot-scale reactor and investigate the effects of the acid concentration, temperature and residue/acid solution ratio on the hemicellulose removal and consequently on the production of sugars (xylose, glucose and arabinose) as well as on the formation of by-products (furfural, 5-hydroxymethylfurfural and acetic acid). This study was based on a model composition corresponding to a 2 3 orthogonal factorial design and employed the response surface methodology (RSM) to optimize the hydrolysis conditions, aiming to attain maximum xylose extraction from hemicellulose of residue. The considered optimum conditions were: H2SO4 concentration of 0.65%, temperature of 157 degrees C and residue/acid solution ratio of 1/8.6 with a reaction time of 20 min. Under these conditions, 79.6% of the total xylose was removed and the hydrolysate contained 1.65 g/l glucose, 13.65 g/l xylose, 1.55 g/l arabinose, 3.10 g/l acetic acid, 1.23 g/l furfural and 0.20 g/l 5-hydroxymethylfurfural. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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This work describes a methodology developed for determination of costs associated to products generated in a small wastewater treatment station for sanitary wastewater from a university campus. This methodology begins with plant component units identification, relating their fluid and thermodynamics features for each point marked in its process diagram. Following, its functional diagram is developed and its formulation is elaborated, in exergetic base, describing all equations for these points, which are the constraints for exergetic production cost problem and are used in equations to determine the costs associated to products generated in SWTS. This methodology was applied to a hypothetical system based on SWTS former parts and presented consistent results when compared to expected values based on previous exergetic expertise. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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This work presents a thermoeconomic optimization methodology for the analysis and design of energy systems. This methodology involves economic aspects related to the exergy conception, in order to develop a tool to assist the equipment selection, operation mode choice as well as to optimize the thermal plants design. It also presents the concepts related to exergy in a general scope and in thermoeconomics which combines the thermal sciences principles (thermodynamics, heat transfer, and fluid mechanics) and the economic engineering in order to rationalize energy systems investment decisions, development and operation. Even in this paper, it develops a thermoeconomic methodology through the use of a simple mathematical model, involving thermodynamics parameters and costs evaluation, also defining the objective function as the exergetic production cost. The optimization problem evaluation is developed for two energy systems. First is applied to a steam compression refrigeration system and then to a cogeneration system using backpressure steam turbine. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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In this paper an efficient algorithm for probabilistic analysis of unbalanced three-phase weakly-meshed distribution systems is presented. This algorithm uses the technique of Two-Point Estimate Method for calculating the probabilistic behavior of the system random variables. Additionally, the deterministic analysis of the state variables is performed by means of a Compensation-Based Radial Load Flow (CBRLF). Such load flow efficiently exploits the topological characteristics of the network. To deal with distributed generation, a strategy to incorporate a simplified model of a generator in the CBRLF is proposed. Thus, depending on the type of control and generator operation conditions, the node with distributed generation can be modeled either as a PV or PQ node. To validate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm, the IEEE 37 bus test system is used. The probabilistic results are compared with those obtained using the Monte Carlo method.
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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide information on lubricant contamination by biodiesel using vibration and neural network.Design/methodology/approach - The possible contamination of lubricants is verified by analyzing the vibration and neural network of a bench test under determinated conditions.Findings - Results have shown that classical signal analysis methods could not reveal any correlation between the signal and the presence of contamination, or contamination grade. on other hand, the use of probabilistic neural network (PNN) was very successful in the identification and classification of contamination and its grade.Research limitations/implications - This study was done for some specific kinds of biodiesel. Other types of biodiesel could be analyzed.Practical implications Contamination information is presented in the vibration signal, even if it is not evident by classical vibration analysis. In addition, the use of PNN gives a relatively simple and easy-to-use detection tool with good confidence. The training process is fast, and allows implementation of an adaptive training algorithm.Originality/value - This research could be extended to an internal combustion engine in order to verify a possible contamination by biodiesel.