Índice de previsão de produção de leite para vacas Jersey

No Brasil, o uso de vários modelos de criação intensiva e semi-extensiva desfavorece a adoção generalizada de métodos de manejo do gado bovino, principalmente do gado leiteiro. Mesmo assim, a produção leiteira pode ser melhorada a partir do uso de tecnologias que possam garantir o manejo adequado do rebanho. O objetivo deste trabalho foi desenvolver um índice de previsão de produção de leite para vacas Jersey em lactação, de genética de alta produtividade, em regime semi-estabulado, nas condições tropicais. Para a obtenção do índice, consideraram-se a temperatura e a umidade relativa do ambiente e a velocidade do ar, assim como valores de precipitação pluviométrica, temperatura do solo do pasto e a radiação solar como agentes estressores, os quais podem alterar a produção de leite. O experimento considerou dois tratamentos: A - as vacas permaneceram em sala de espera guarnecida com chuveiro e ventiladores, por um período 30 min antes da ordenha; B - as vacas não tiveram acesso a essa sala de espera (controle). Fora do período de ordenha, as vacas tiveram acesso ao pasto. Observou-se que as diferenças de médias de produção entre os tratamentos não foram estatisticamente significativas. Foram procedidas as análises para efeito de elaboração do modelo e chegou-se a um modelo factível, considerando a relação entre produção e a precipitação, assim como a temperatura máxima do solo do pasto.

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Aplicações de redes neurais e neuro fuzzy em engenharia biomédica e agronomia

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Fuzzy rule-based system for evaluation of uncertainty transaction in cassava chain

A fuzzy ruled-based system was developed in this study and resulted in an index indicating the level of uncertainty related to commercial transactions between cassava growers and their dealers. The fuzzy system was developed based on Transaction Cost Economics approach. The fuzzy system was developed from input variables regarding information sharing between grower and dealer on “Demand/purchase Forecasting”, “Production Forecasting” and “Production Innovation”. The output variable is the level of uncertainty regarding the transaction between seller and buyer agent, which may serve as a system for detecting inefficiencies. Evidences from 27 cassava growers registered in the Regional Development Offices of Tupa and Assis, São Paulo, Brazil, and 48 of their dealers supported the development of the system. The mathematical model indicated that 55% of the growers present a Very High level of uncertainty, 33% present Medium or High. The others present Low or Very Low level of uncertainty. From the model, simulations of external interferences can be implemented in order to improve the degree of uncertainty and, thus, lower transaction costs.

Previsão dos custos de produção por intermédio de séries temporais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Produção de biomassa e composição química de adubos verdes cultivados no Vale do Ribeira

The contribution of green manure to soil improvement and crop production depends primarily on biomass production and its chemical composition, which vary depending on the species, region and growing season. The aim of this research was to evaluate the chemical composition of biomass produced by green manures in Vale do Ribeira, São Paulo, Brazil. In order to develop this research, was carried an experiment in Pariquera-Acu, in 2006/2007, in completely randomized blocks design with four treatments (three green manure and spontaneous vegetation) and five replications. At 30, 60, 90 and 120 after sowing samples were collected in 1m(2) of the shoots and determined fresh and dry, and chemical composition biomass. Sunhemp, pigeon pea and mucuna produced, in decreasing order, the largest quantities of biomass and were more efficient than the spontaneous vegetation. The biomass produced by green manure had higher quality than that produced by spontaneous vegetation. Sunhemp and pigeon pea have a higher proportion of dry matter in stems which have low N, high C/N and L/N ratio, variables indicating slow decomposition of residues. The analysis of dry matter partitioned to better indication of the chemical composition of the residues and the prevision of the availability of nutrients in the soil.

Relações entre a produção de laranjeira 'Westin' e as precipitações em Botucatu, SP

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Ferramentas matemáticas para modelagem da temperatura com aplicação em graus-dias para otimização da produção agrícola

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Citricultura na região sul paulista: modelo de previsão econômica para tomada de decisão em condições de risco

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise de rentabilidade e risco na produção de cana-de- açúcar na região norte do Estado de São Paulo sob dois tipos de arranjos contratuais

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Previsão de séries temporais financeiras por meio de redes neurais dinâmicas e processos de transformação de dados: uma abordagem empírico-comparativa

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Fatores que influenciam a produção de biomassa e glicerol quinase pela levedura recombinante Pichia pastoris

Pós-graduação em Alimentos e Nutrição - FCFAR

Uma revisão sobre a resina uréia-formadeído (RUF) empregada na produção de painéis de madeira reconstituída

According to ABIPA (2009), Brazil is currently among the major producers of reconstituted wood panels, with one of the main factors for this condition, its climate and its large land area, which allows the cultivation of forests, which provide raw materials for these industries. To establish that market as power, Brazil has invested about R$ 1.3 billion in the last 10 years, yet designed an investment of 0.8 billion dollars over the next three years (BNDES, 2008). With the new investments in this segment, we expect a growth of about 66% in the resin consumption of urea-formaldehyde (GPC, 2009) which should also result in major investments by the companies producing this polymer. Currently employees are mainly three types of resins in the production industry panels, as follows: Urea-Formaldehyde Resin (R-UF), melamine-formaldehyde resin (R-MF) and Phenol-Formaldehyde Resin (R-FF). Especially the cost factor, the urea-formaldehyde resin is the most used by companies producing reconstituted wood panels. The UF-R is a polymer obtained by condensation of urea and formaldehyde reactors (usually batch type), characterized by being a thermosetting polymer which makes it very efficient for bonding wood composites. The urea-formaldehyde polymer, to present a quite complex, it becomes very difficult to predict the exact chain resulting in the process of condensation of urea with formaldehyde, so that a greater knowledge of its characteristics and methods for their characterization can result in greater control in industrial processes and subsequent decrease cost and improve the quality of reconstituted wood panels produced in Brazil

Previsão da demanda doméstica da aviação comercial européia

This paper work has as objective the study and forecasting of the demand behavior for the European commercial aviation industry. Once economy and demand has a straight relationship, the tool chosen to perform this forecast was the Econometry. In order to get a more efficient forecast, a complete analysis of the environment in which the aviation sector is, to understand all factors with influence over the market as a whole. Only then, the variables which would be tested for the correlation with the demand were picked. The final results of this study has achieved all objectives set and has given a better view over the European Commercial Aviation Market

Modelos agrometeorológicos para previsão de atributos de qualidade em laranjas 'Valência' para o estado de São Paulo

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Produção Vegetal) - FCAV